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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+5LAA
LAA

LAA

16-25

6
1
TOR

TOR

18-22

Rogers Centre · Toronto, Ontario
40,977 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

TOR spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.0

TOR no-vig %

48.3%

open 47.8% · +0.4

+2.0+1.0TOR SPREADO/U 8.5O/U 7.5TOTAL52.3%43.8%TOR NO-VIG %May 9, 6 PMMay 10, 12 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = TOR favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

LAA wins

LAA 6 · TOR 1 (by 5)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked TOR +7pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
LAA0000410016
TOR1000000001

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

54%Last 7 · 55-46
61%Last 30 · 318-205
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 966 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 17, 26sim 95
    17
    20(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 10, 26sim 95
    202
    28(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 29, 26sim 94
    71
    13(H)9
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 24, 26sim 94
    63
    1(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 21, 26sim 94
    212
    20(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 28, 26sim 93
    183
    1(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Sun, May 10·Final/SeriesTOR wins series 2-1/VegasTOR -118

Recap · MLB

Los Angeles Angels went into Toronto Blue Jays and beat them, 6–1.

LAA -1.5 cashed (won by 5). Total stayed UNDER 8.0 by 1.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

LAA · top performer

LAA
Jo Adell

Jo Adell

RF

3.000OPS

4-3

AB-H

2

R

2

RBI

TOR · top performer

TOR
Daulton Varsho

Daulton Varsho

CF

1.000OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

MLB · Los Angeles Angels at Toronto Blue Jays · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
LAA16-25
6
1
TOR18-22
LAA16-25·TOR18-22
LAA

LAA

16-25

6
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
Z. NetoZ. Neto★SS
1-44110001
SPRINT27.148
M. TroutM. Trout★CF
0-33100011
SPRINT28.688
V. GrissomV. Grissom★2B
2-44022001
SPRINT26.632
J. SolerJ. Soler★DH
0-44000002
J. AdellJ. Adell★RF
3-44232200
SPRINT27.867
N. SchanuelN. Schanuel★1B
0-33100010
O. PerazaO. Peraza★2B
1-44112100
SPRINT28.278
S. RiveroS. Rivero★C
0-44000000
B. TeodosioB. Teodosio★LF
0-33000001
Team7-3333676326
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. SorianoJ. Soriano★SP
7.2511170
S. BachmanS. BachmanRP
0.1000000
R. ZeferjahnR. ZeferjahnRP
1.0000020
Team9.0511190
TOR

TOR

18-22

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
E. ClementE. Clement★2B
1-44010000
SPRINT27.354
D. VarshoD. Varsho★CF
2-44120002
SPRINT26.838
V. Guerrero Jr.V. Guerrero Jr.★1B
0-44000000
SPRINT26.123
K. OkamotoK. Okamoto★3B
1-44011001
SPRINT26.123
J. SanchezJ. Sanchez★RF
0-33000013
L. SosaL. Sosa★2B
0-44000002
A. GimenezA. Gimenez★SS
0-33000001
M. StrawM. Straw★RF
1-33010000
SPRINT29.597
T. HeinemanT. Heineman★C
0-33000000
Team5-3232151019
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
S. MilesS. Miles★RP
3.0200020
T. NanceT. NanceRP
1.0000000
E. LauerE. LauerSP
5.0566243
Team9.0766263

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

LAA

  • J. Soriano
    103 pitches·29% CSW
    • SI
      27%·95.6 mph·20% whiff
    • KC
      23%·84.7 mph·17% whiff
    • FF
      22%·96.8 mph·17% whiff
    • FS
      17%·91.8 mph·36% whiff
    • SL
      10%·90.0 mph·25% whiff
  • R. Zeferjahn
    15 pitches·47% CSW
    • ST
      40%·85.7 mph·67% whiff
    • FF
      27%·98.2 mph·100% whiff
    • SI
      27%·97.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      7%·88.4 mph·— whiff
  • S. Bachman
    5 pitches·20% CSW
    • SL
      80%·89.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      20%·99.2 mph·— whiff

TOR

  • E. Lauer
    80 pitches·24% CSW
    • FF
      48%·90.6 mph·33% whiff
    • CH
      16%·83.9 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      15%·75.1 mph·20% whiff
    • FC
      14%·86.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      8%·82.2 mph·0% whiff
  • S. Miles
    38 pitches·16% CSW
    • SI
      47%·96.5 mph·8% whiff
    • FF
      26%·96.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      18%·87.8 mph·20% whiff
    • CU
      8%·81.2 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Nance
    8 pitches·38% CSW
    • SI
      63%·95.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      25%·88.5 mph·100% whiff
    • CU
      13%·85.3 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

7

Hits

5

6

Runs

1

0

Errors

0

Current series

TOR wins series 2-1

May 8LAALAA0@TORTOR2
May 9LAALAA1@TORTOR14
May 10LAALAA6@TORTOR1today

Season series

TOR wins series 4-2

Apr 21TORTOR5@LAALAA2
Apr 22TORTOR4@LAALAA2
Apr 22TORTOR3@LAALAA7
May 8LAALAA0@TORTOR2
May 9LAALAA1@TORTOR14
May 10LAALAA6@TORTOR1today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

LAA -1.5

Total

8.0

Defensive · -0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

LAALAA-10250%
TORTOR-11854%

↘202· 5.8h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet LAA -1.5↗SpreadBet LAA -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

8.0

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowLAA ↔ TOR

Biggest swing: 24pp · Top 5th Inning

LAALAA
J. Adell

J. Adell

RF

Batter of the game2-HR game

3-for-4 · 2 HR · 3.000 OPS

J. Soriano

J. Soriano

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

7.2 IP · 7 K · 1 ER · 5 H · 1 BB

TORTOR
D. Varsho

D. Varsho

CF

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 R · 1.000 OPS

E. Lauer

E. Lauer

SP

Top reliever

5.0 IP · 4 K · 6 ER · 5 H · 2 BB

How it ended

LAA beat TOR 6-1. Peraza's play in the top 5th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (24pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

TOR vs LAA

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
TORBottom 1st Inning · 0-1
+10pp→ 58% WP

Okamoto · doubled to left, Varsho scored.

LAATop 5th Inning · 2-1
+24pp→ 64% WP

Peraza · homered to left (392 feet), Schanuel scored.

LAABottom 5th Inning · 4-1
+20pp→ 84% WP

Gim · énez lined out to center.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
LAA0000410016
TOR1000000001

Period scoring

LAA won 3 · TOR won 1

0
1

Inn 1

Okamoto 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

4
0

Inn 5

Peraza 2

1
0

Inn 6

Adell 1

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

1
0

Inn 9

Adell 1

LAA
TOR

Play-by-play · 495 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    LAA 6·TOR 1

  2. B9

    ·

    LAA 6·TOR 1

  3. B9

    Sosa struck out swinging.

    ·

    LAA 6·TOR 1

  4. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    LAA 6·TOR 1

  5. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    LAA 6·TOR 1

  6. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    LAA 6·TOR 1

  7. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    LAA 6·TOR 1

  8. B9

    Ryan Zeferjahn pitches to Lenyn Sosa

    ·

    LAA 6·TOR 1

  9. B9

    ·

    LAA 6·TOR 1

  10. B9

    Sánchez struck out swinging.

    ·

    LAA 6·TOR 1

  11. B9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    LAA 6·TOR 1

  12. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    ·

    LAA 6·TOR 1

  13. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    LAA 6·TOR 1

  14. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    LAA 6·TOR 1

  15. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    LAA 6·TOR 1

  16. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    LAA 6·TOR 1

  17. B9

    Ryan Zeferjahn pitches to Jesus Sanchez

    ·

    LAA 6·TOR 1

  18. B9

    ·

    LAA 6·TOR 1

  19. B9

    Okamoto flied out to center.

    ·

    LAA 6·TOR 1

  20. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    ·

    LAA 6·TOR 1

  21. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    LAA 6·TOR 1

  22. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    LAA 6·TOR 1

  23. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    LAA 6·TOR 1

  24. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    LAA 6·TOR 1

  25. B9

    Ryan Zeferjahn pitches to Kazuma Okamoto

    ·

    LAA 6·TOR 1

  26. B9

    Zeferjahn relieved Bachman

    ·

    LAA 6·TOR 1

  27. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    LAA 6·TOR 1

  28. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    LAA 6·TOR 1

  29. T9

    ·

    LAA 6·TOR 1

  30. T9

    Rivero flied out to right.

    ·

    LAA 6·TOR 1

Team stats

LAA

Away

Stat

TOR

Home

6

Runs

1

7

Hits

5

0

Errors

0

19

TB

6

3

HR

0

2

BB

1

6

K

9

4

LOB

7

Betting line

LAA -1.5·O/U 8·LAA -102/TOR -118

DraftKings · via ESPN

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+0.44

CLV pp

Open price

+100

Close price

-102

Open no-vig

47.8%

Close no-vig

48.3%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

3 of 16 players in cohort
  • Myles StrawTOR · RF
    SPRINT29.597
  • Mike TroutLAA · CF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Oswald PerazaLAA · 2B
    SPRINT28.278

Player projections

TOR vs LAA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

122

projections · 78 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Reid DetmersLAA
    6.7± 4.4low
  • Jose SorianoLAA
    6.6± 2.9low
  • Trey YesavageTOR
    5.8± 2.2low

Hits

  • Nathan LukesTOR
    1.3± 1.1high
  • Ernie ClementTOR
    1.2± 0.8high
  • Wade MecklerLAA
    1.0± 1.2low

Total bases

  • Zach NetoLAA
    2.1± 2.6high
  • Ernie ClementTOR
    2.1± 2.0high
  • Mike TroutLAA
    1.7± 1.8high

RBIs

  • Vaughn GrissomLAA
    0.8± 1.9high
  • Jesus SanchezTOR
    0.7± 1.2high
  • Mike TroutLAA
    0.6± 0.9high

Earned runs

  • Grayson RodriguezLAA
    4.0± 4.0low
  • Jack KochanowiczLAA
    3.0± 2.9low
  • Reid DetmersLAA
    2.9± 3.1low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

56.9%

ensemble · TOR favored

  • Elo Static

    56.9%

    P(TOR win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    57.5%

    P(TOR win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    57.4%

    P(TOR win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.26 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.