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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+2BAL
DET

DET

20-33

3
5
BAL

BAL

23-29

Oriole Park at Camden Yards · Baltimore, Maryland
17,616 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

BAL spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.5 · -0.5

BAL no-vig %

53.4%

open 55.1% · -1.7

-1.0-2.0BAL SPREADO/U 9.0O/U 7.5TOTAL59.1%49.4%BAL NO-VIG %MODEL 56.8%May 23, 7 PMMay 24, 12 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = BAL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

BAL wins

DET 3 · BAL 5 (by 2)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked BAL +7pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
DET0002000103
BAL0000010135

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

54%Last 7 · 55-46
61%Last 30 · 318-205
Receipts →

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+30.6pp

best edge · BAL · DraftKings

DET

no live price

BAL

★ best
+259DraftKings

edge +30.6pp · implied 26.2%

BookDETBALBest edge
DraftKings-367+259★+30.6

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 966 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 24, 26sim 97
    64
    1(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 17, 26sim 94
    17
    20(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 10, 26sim 94
    36
    14(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 22, 26sim 94
    64
    1(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 29, 26sim 93
    71
    13(H)9
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 18, 26sim 91
    183
    9(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Sun, May 24·Final/SeriesBAL wins series 2-1/VegasBAL -126

Recap · MLB

Baltimore Orioles held off Detroit Tigers, 5–3.

BAL -1.5 cashed (won by 2). Total pushed exactly on 8.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

DET · top performer

DET
Spencer Torkelson

Spencer Torkelson

1B

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

0

R

1

RBI

BAL · top performer

BAL
Colton Cowser

Colton Cowser

CF

2.500OPS

2-1

AB-H

1

R

3

RBI

MLB · Detroit Tigers at Baltimore Orioles · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
DET20-33
3
5
BAL23-29
DET20-33·BAL23-29
DET

DET

20-33

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
Z. McKinstryZ. McKinstry★2B
0-33000010
K. McGonigleK. McGonigle★SS
1-55110001
SPRINT28.278
D. DinglerD. Dingler★C
0-44200011
SPRINT27.765
R. GreeneR. Greene★LF
0-44000001
M. VierlingM. Vierling★CF
3-44031000
SPRINT28.483
C. KeithC. Keith★3B
1-22011000
SPRINT28.381
W. PerezW. Perez★RF
0-33000011
J. RogersJ. Rogers★C
0-33000011
Z. ShortZ. Short★SS
1-44010001
J. JonesJ. JonesDH
0-11000000
S. TorkelsonS. Torkelson1B
1-11011000
SPRINT26.123
Team7-3434373046
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
F. ValdezF. Valdez★SP
6.0211251
W. VestW. VestRP
1.0000010
K. FinneganK. FinneganRP
0.2211100
K. JansenK. JansenRP
1.0133201
Team8.2555562
BAL

BAL

23-29

5
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
T. WardT. Ward★LF
1-44011001
SPRINT27.457
G. HendersonG. Henderson★SS
1-33111112
SPRINT28.175
A. RutschmanA. Rutschman★C
0-22000020
P. AlonsoP. Alonso★1B
0-44000000
T. O'NeillT. O'Neill★RF
0-33000001
W. WilsonW. Wilson★3B
0-22000000
L. TaverasL. Taveras★CF
1-33110011
SPRINT2993
J. JacksonJ. Jackson★2B
1-44110001
SPRINT26.530
B. AlexanderB. Alexander★3B
0-22000000
S. BasalloS. BasalloC
0-11000000
J. HollidayJ. Holliday2B
0-11100010
C. CowserC. CowserCF
1-22113100
SPRINT28.175
Team5-3131555256
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
B. YoungB. Young★SP
6.2520240
K. AkinK. AkinRP
1.0211210
D. EnnsD. EnnsRP
1.1000010
Team9.0731460

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

DET

  • F. Valdez
    92 pitches·30% CSW
    • SI
      51%·94.2 mph·17% whiff
    • CU
      24%·78.3 mph·30% whiff
    • CH
      18%·89.2 mph·43% whiff
    • FF
      4%·96.1 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      2%·87.4 mph·0% whiff
  • K. Jansen
    24 pitches·17% CSW
    • FC
      71%·92.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      21%·93.4 mph·25% whiff
    • SL
      8%·84.7 mph·— whiff
  • K. Finnegan
    21 pitches·19% CSW
    • FS
      62%·87.3 mph·14% whiff
    • FF
      38%·96.2 mph·0% whiff
  • W. Vest
    14 pitches·36% CSW
    • FF
      71%·95.6 mph·25% whiff
    • SL
      14%·87.9 mph·— whiff
    • CH
      7%·90.0 mph·100% whiff
    • SI
      7%·95.3 mph·0% whiff

BAL

  • B. Young
    105 pitches·26% CSW
    • FF
      40%·93.4 mph·14% whiff
    • FS
      24%·82.8 mph·17% whiff
    • SI
      15%·92.8 mph·13% whiff
    • CU
      13%·74.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      8%·83.6 mph·50% whiff
  • K. Akin
    22 pitches·27% CSW
    • FF
      45%·94.0 mph·33% whiff
    • CH
      41%·86.6 mph·25% whiff
    • SL
      14%·87.8 mph·0% whiff
  • D. Enns
    11 pitches·36% CSW
    • FF
      64%·93.6 mph·20% whiff
    • CH
      18%·85.7 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      9%·77.4 mph·— whiff
    • FC
      9%·87.0 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

7

Hits

5

3

Runs

5

0

Errors

1

Current series

BAL wins series 2-1

May 22DETDET4@BALBAL7
May 23DETDET0@BALBAL0
May 24DETDET3@BALBAL5today
May 24DETDET4@BALBAL1

Season series

BAL leads series 2-0

May 22DETDET4@BALBAL7
May 23DETDET0@BALBAL0
May 24DETDET3@BALBAL5today
May 24DETDET4@BALBAL1
Jul 27BALBAL@DETDETupcoming
Jul 28BALBAL@DETDETupcoming
Jul 29BALBAL@DETDETupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

BAL -1.5

Total

8.0

Defensive · -0.5 vs avg

↘0.5pt· 5.2h

Moneyline

DETDET+10549%
BALBAL-12656%

↗9· 5.2h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet BAL -1.5↗SpreadBet BAL -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

8.0

-0.5 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowDET ↔ BAL

Biggest swing: 85pp · Bottom 9th Inning

DETDET
S. Torkelson

S. Torkelson

1B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 2.000 OPS

F. Valdez

F. Valdez

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 5 K · 1 ER · 2 H · 2 BB

BALBAL
C. Cowser

C. Cowser

CF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-2 · 1 HR · 2.500 OPS

B. Young

B. Young

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.2 IP · 4 K · 0 ER · 5 H · 2 BB

How it ended

BAL beat DET 5-3. Cowser's play in the bottom 9th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (85pp).

Win probability

BAL vs DET

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
BALBottom 6th Inning · 2-1
+15pp→ 39% WP

Henderson · homered to right (368 feet).

DETBottom 8th Inning · 3-2
+13pp→ 70% WP

Rutschman · flied out to center.

BALBottom 9th Inning · 3-5
+85pp→ 100% WP

Cowser · homered to center (440 feet), Holliday scored and Taveras scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
DET0002000103
BAL0000010135

Period scoring

DET won 1 · BAL won 2

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

2
0

Inn 4

Vierling 1

0
0

Inn 5

0
1

Inn 6

Henderson 1

0
0

Inn 7

1
1

Inn 8

Torkelson 1

Ward 1

0
3

Inn 9

Cowser 3

DET
BAL

Play-by-play · 567 plays

period
event
player
  1. B9

    ·

    DET 3·BAL 5

  2. B9

    Cowser homered to center (440 feet), Holliday scored and Taveras scored.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    DET 3·BAL 5

    +85pp

  3. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    DET 3·BAL 5

  4. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    DET 3·BAL 2

  5. B9

    Taveras stole second, Holliday stole third.

    · ·

    DET 3·BAL 2

  6. B9

    Taveras stole second, Holliday stole third.

    · ·

    DET 3·BAL 2

  7. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    DET 3·BAL 2

  8. B9

    Kenley Jansen pitches to Colton Cowser

    · ·

    DET 3·BAL 5

  9. B9

    · ·

    DET 3·BAL 2

  10. B9

    Jackson flied out to center.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    DET 3·BAL 2

    −16pp

  11. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    DET 3·BAL 2

  12. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    DET 3·BAL 2

  13. B9

    Kenley Jansen pitches to Jeremiah Jackson

    · ·

    DET 3·BAL 2

  14. B9

    · ·

    DET 3·BAL 2

  15. B9

    Taveras walked.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    DET 3·BAL 2

    +10pp

  16. B9

    Pitch 7 : Ball 4

    · ·

    DET 3·BAL 2

  17. B9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    DET 3·BAL 2

  18. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    · ·

    DET 3·BAL 2

  19. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    DET 3·BAL 2

  20. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    DET 3·BAL 2

  21. B9

    Holliday stole second.

    ·

    DET 3·BAL 2

  22. B9

    Holliday stole second.

    ·

    DET 3·BAL 2

  23. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    DET 3·BAL 2

  24. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    DET 3·BAL 2

  25. B9

    Kenley Jansen pitches to Leody Taveras

    · ·

    DET 3·BAL 2

  26. B9

    ·

    DET 3·BAL 2

  27. B9

    Holliday walked.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    DET 3·BAL 2

    +9pp

  28. B9

    Pitch 7 : Ball 4

    ·

    DET 3·BAL 2

  29. B9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    DET 3·BAL 2

  30. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    DET 3·BAL 2

Team stats

DET

Away

Stat

BAL

Home

3

Runs

5

7

Hits

5

0

Errors

1

8

TB

12

0

HR

2

4

BB

5

6

K

6

15

LOB

12

Betting line

BAL -1.5·O/U 8·DET +105/BAL -126

DraftKings · via ESPN

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-1.68

CLV pp · steam

Open price

-136

Close price

-127

Open no-vig

55.1%

Close no-vig

53.4%

Market faded the model hard · Graded: hit

Player projections

BAL vs DET.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

124

projections · 73 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Kyle BradishBAL
    5.6± 3.0low
  • Jack FlahertyDET
    5.5± 3.5low
  • Shane BazBAL
    5.3± 2.1low

Hits

  • Leody TaverasBAL
    1.1± 0.8high
  • Pete AlonsoBAL
    1.1± 1.1high
  • Kevin McGonigleDET
    1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Gunnar HendersonBAL
    1.9± 2.7high
  • Pete AlonsoBAL
    1.8± 1.9high
  • Adley RutschmanBAL
    1.6± 2.1high

RBIs

  • Pete AlonsoBAL
    0.8± 1.4high
  • Blaze AlexanderBAL
    0.7± 1.9high
  • Samuel BasalloBAL
    0.6± 1.0high

Earned runs

  • Trevor RogersBAL
    3.7± 2.9low
  • Shane BazBAL
    2.8± 2.3low
  • Jack FlahertyDET
    2.8± 2.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

58.1%

ensemble · BAL favored

  • Elo Static

    57.2%

    P(BAL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    58.2%

    P(BAL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    58.9%

    P(BAL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.70 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 14 players in cohort
  • Matt VierlingDET · CF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Colt KeithDET · 3B
    SPRINT28.381
  • Jahmai JonesDET · DH
    SPRINT28.278
  • Kevin McGonigleDET · SS
    SPRINT28.278
  • Gunnar HendersonBAL · SS
    SPRINT28.175