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TOP 5TH+2PIT

PIT

21-18

15-23

Live · model leanTop 5thPolls every 30s

62.1%

PIT wins · current

Pre-game: 51.8% PIT

PIT 2 · 0 SF

PIT +2

Live momentum · cumulative diff

Inn 5

away leadsSF leads

Key moments · live

newest first

SwingPITTop 5th Inning · 0-0
+12pp→ 70% WP
Cruz · singled to center, Bart to third.
Lead flipPITBottom 1st Inning · 0-0
+9pp→ 55% WP
Devers · grounded into double play, second to shortstop to first, Ramos out at second.

Oracle Park · San Francisco, California

Probable starters

The mound matchup

Combined ERA 6.20

B. Ashcraft

1-2 · 3.02 ERA

L. Roupp

5-2 · 3.18 ERA

Line movement

200 snapshots

SF spread

+1.5

open PK · +1.5

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 7.0 · +0.5

SF no-vig %

49.6%

open 49.6%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = SF favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Ensemble breakdown

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

47.9%

ensemble · PIT favored

Elo Static
48.2%
P(SF win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
48.0%
P(SF win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
47.4%
P(SF win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.34 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights are recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen

Live model · pick

Live · model intelligence

71% confidence

Win prob · home

3.3%

-44.9ppvs pre-game · PIT favored

Leverage

low

Mostly decided · away ball

Live edge

—

No fresh in-play moneyline. Live edge needs a snapshot in the last 5 minutes.

Live WP recomputes every 30 seconds from current score, time remaining, and possession state. Leverage measures how much the next play could swing the result.

Receipts

Line shop

Player props

Player projections

SF vs PIT.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

121

projections · 54 high confidence

Strikeouts

Braxton AshcraftPIT
6.4± 2.7low
Landen RouppSF
6.1± 1.4low
Robbie RaySF
5.9± 1.8low

Hits

Jesus RodriguezSF
1.3± 1.3low
Konnor GriffinPIT
1.2± 1.1high
Luis ArraezSF
1.2± 1.0high

Total bases

Brandon LowePIT
2.2± 2.5high
Jesus RodriguezSF
2.0± 2.9low
Casey SchmittSF
1.9± 1.6high

RBIs

Ryan O'HearnPIT
0.8± 1.2high
Spencer HorwitzPIT
0.6± 0.9high
Brandon LowePIT
0.5± 0.5high

Earned runs

Adrian HouserSF
3.6± 3.2low
Tyler MahleSF
2.9± 4.3low
Bubba ChandlerPIT
2.6± 2.6low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

The One modelTossup

● Live

PIT★

Pirates

21-18

vs51.8%PIT

Giants

15-23

PIT 51.8%win prob48.2% SF

PIT 1503 · SF 1466Box score→

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

MLBSat, May 9Top 5thSeriesSF leads series 1-0VegasSF -110

Updated 0s ago

PIT · top performer

Nick Gonzales

1.000OPS

2-1

AB-H

RBI

SF · top performer

Luis Arraez

1.000OPS

2-1

AB-H

RBI

MLB · Box scoreADVANCED

Top 5th

PIT21-18

SF15-23

PIT21-18SF15-23

PIT

21-18

	Batting
Player	H-AB	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
O. Cruz★CF	1-3	3	1	1	0	0	0	2
B. Lowe★2B	0-1	1	0	0	1	0	1	0
B. Reynolds★LF	1-3	3	0	1	1	0	0	1
R. O'Hearn★RF	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	1	0
N. Gonzales★3B	1-2	2	0	1	0	0	0	1
M. Ozuna★DH	1-2	2	0	1	0	0	0	1
S. Horwitz★1B	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	1	1
K. Griffin★SS	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
J. Bart★C	1-2	2	1	1	0	0	0	0
Team	5-18	18	2	5	2	0	3	8

	Pitching
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	HR
B. Ashcraft★SP	4.0	2	0	0	0	4	0
Team	4.0	2	0	0	0	4	0

15-23

	Batting
Player	H-AB	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
J. Lee★RF	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
L. Arraez★2B	1-2	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
H. Ramos★LF	1-2	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
R. Devers★1B	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
B. Eldridge★1B	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
W. Adames★SS	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. Chapman★3B	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. Gilbert★CF	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
E. Haase★C	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team	2-13	13	0	2	0	0	0	4

	Pitching
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	HR
L. Roupp★SP	4.0	3	1	1	3	8	0
R. BoruckiRP	0.2	2	1	1	0	0	0

Team	4.2	5	2	2	3	8	0

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

Hits

Runs

Errors

Current series

SF leads series 1-0

May 9

PIT2@

SF5

May 10

PIT@

SFtoday

May 10

PIT@

SFupcoming

Season series

SF leads series 1-0

May 9

PIT2@

SF5

May 10

PIT@

SFtoday

May 10

PIT@

SFupcoming

Sep 1

SF@

PITupcoming

Sep 2

SF@

PITupcoming

Sep 3

SF@

PITupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

PIT -1.5

1.5pt· 3.2h

Total

7.5

Defensive · -1.0 vs avg

0.5pt· 3.2h

Moneyline

PIT-11052%

SF-11052%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet PIT -1.5↗SpreadBet PIT -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

+1.5 since open

Total

7.5

+0.5 since open

Pitching matchup · today

ESPN · season stats

PITSP

B. Ashcraft

#35 · 1-2

ERA

3.02

—

Last 3 starts

5/3vs

CIN7.2 IP · 0 ER · 6 K-

4/28vs

STL4.1 IP · 6 ER · 7 KL(1-2)

4/23@

TEX7.0 IP · 2 ER · 5 K-

SFSP

L. Roupp

#65 · 5-2

ERA

3.18

—

Last 3 starts

5/2@

TB4.1 IP · 4 ER · 6 KL(5-2)

4/26vs

MIA7.2 IP · 3 ER · 6 KW(5-1)

4/22vs

LAD5.0 IP · 1 ER · 7 KW(4-1)

Starting lineups

ESPN · 1-9 batting order

PIT4L · 4R · 1S

1
O. Cruz
CF · #15
L
2
B. Lowe
2B · #5
L
3
B. Reynolds
LF · #10
B
4
R. O'Hearn
RF · #29
L
5
N. Gonzales
3B · #3
R
6
M. Ozuna
DH · #24
R
7
S. Horwitz
1B · #2
L
8
K. Griffin
SS · #6
R
9
J. Bart
C · #14
R

SF5L · 4R

1
J. Lee
RF · #51
L
2
L. Arraez
2B · #1
L
3
H. Ramos
LF · #17
R
4
R. Devers
1B · #16
L
5
B. Eldridge
DH · #8
L
6
W. Adames
SS · #2
R
7
M. Chapman
3B · #26
R
8
D. Gilbert
CF · #0
L
9
E. Haase
C · #18
R

Live · top performers so far

Top 5th

Game flowPIT ↔ SF

Recent swing: 12pp · Top 5th Inning

Just happened

Ryan Walker · pitches to Nick Gonzales

PIT

N. Gonzales

Batter of the game

1-for-2 · 1.000 OPS

B. Ashcraft

Starting pitcher

4.0 IP · 4 K · 0 ER · 2 H

On pace: 7 IP · 7 K · 0 ER

L. Arraez

Batter of the game

1-for-2 · 1.000 OPS

L. Roupp

Starting pitcher

4.0 IP · 8 K · 1 ER · 3 H · 3 BB

On pace: 7 IP · 14 K · 2 ER

How it's going

PIT lead SF 2-0 (Top 5th).

Win probability

SF vs PIT

Score progression

0 lead changes

PIT2

SF0

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

PITBottom 1st Inning · 0-0

+9pp→ 55% WP

Devers · grounded into double play, second to shortstop to first, Ramos out at second.

PITTop 5th Inning · 0-0

+12pp→ 70% WP

Cruz · singled to center, Bart to third.

Linescore (innings)

Team	1	2	3	4	5	R
PIT	0	0	0	0	2	2
SF	0	0	0	0	—	0

Period scoring

PIT won 0 · SF won 0

Inn 1

Inn 2

Inn 3

Inn 4

Inn 5

Lowe 1

PIT

Play-by-play · 280 plays

period

event

player

T5
Ryan Walker pitches to Nick Gonzales
· ·
PIT 2·SF 0
T5
Walker relieved Borucki
·
PIT 2·SF 0
T5
· ·
PIT 2·SF 0
T5
O'Hearn flied out to left.
· ·
PIT 2·SF 0
+2pp
T5
Pitch 4 : Ball In Play
· ·
PIT 2·SF 0
T5
Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking
· ·
PIT 2·SF 0
T5
Pitch 2 : Ball 1
· ·
PIT 2·SF 0
T5
Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking
· ·
PIT 2·SF 0
T5
Ryan Borucki pitches to Ryan O'Hearn
· ·
PIT 2·SF 0
T5
·
PIT 2·SF 0
T5
Reynolds singled to left, Cruz scored, Reynolds to second.BIG MOMENT
· ·
PIT 2·SF 0
−10pp
T5
Pitch 1 : Ball In Play
· ·
PIT 2·SF 0
T5
Ryan Borucki pitches to Bryan Reynolds
· ·
PIT 2·SF 0
T5
· ·
PIT 1·SF 0
T5
Lowe hit sacrifice fly to center, Bart scored.
· ·
PIT 1·SF 0
−2pp
T5
Pitch 9 : Ball In Play
· ·
PIT 1·SF 0
T5
Cruz stole second.
· ·
PIT 0·SF 0
T5
Cruz stole second.
· ·
PIT 0·SF 0
T5
Pitch 8 : Ball 3
· ·
PIT 0·SF 0
T5
Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul
· ·
PIT 0·SF 0
T5
Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul
· ·
PIT 0·SF 0
T5
Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul
· ·
PIT 0·SF 0
T5
Pitch 4 : Ball 2
· ·
PIT 0·SF 0
T5
Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul
· ·
PIT 0·SF 0
T5
Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul
· ·
PIT 0·SF 0
T5
Pitch 1 : Ball 1
· ·
PIT 0·SF 0
T5
Ryan Borucki pitches to Brandon Lowe
· ·
PIT 1·SF 0
T5
· ·
PIT 0·SF 0
T5
Cruz singled to center, Bart to third.BIG MOMENT
· ·
PIT 0·SF 0
−12pp
T5
Pitch 2 : Ball In Play
· ·
PIT 0·SF 0

Team stats

PIT

Away

Stat

Home

Runs

Hits

Errors

LOB

Betting line

PIT -1.5·O/U 7.5·PIT -110/SF -110

DraftKings · via ESPN