MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

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TOP 5TH+5ATL

ATL

26-13

LAD

24-14

Live · model leanTop 5thPolls every 30s

69.8%

ATL wins · current

Pre-game: 57.7% LAD

ATL 5 · 0 LAD

ATL +5

Live momentum · cumulative diff

Inn 4

away leadsLAD leads

Key moments · live

newest first

Lead flipATLTop 2nd Inning · 3-0
+18pp→ 68% WP
Albies · singled to left, Mateo scored and White scored, Baldwin to second.
Lead flipATLTop 1st Inning · 0-0
+7pp→ 51% WP
Albies · reached on infield single to catcher, Baldwin to second, Dubón to third.

Dodger Stadium · Los Angeles, California

Probable starters

The mound matchup

S. Strider

0-0 · 8.10 ERA

B. Snell

Line movement

200 snapshots

LAD spread

-1.5

open PK · -1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 9.5 · -1.0

LAD no-vig %

60.0%

open 53.2% · +6.8

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = LAD favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Ensemble breakdown

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

58.0%

ensemble · LAD favored

Elo Static
57.7%
P(LAD win)
44%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
57.7%
P(LAD win)
11%
weight
Bullpen Park
58.3%
P(LAD win)
45%
weight

Disagreement

0.30 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

2 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights are recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen

Live model · pick

Live · model intelligence

71% confidence

Win prob · home

1.0%

-56.7ppvs pre-game · ATL favored

Leverage

low

Mostly decided · away ball

Live edge

—

No fresh in-play moneyline. Live edge needs a snapshot in the last 5 minutes.

Live WP recomputes every 30 seconds from current score, time remaining, and possession state. Leverage measures how much the next play could swing the result.

Receipts

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+6.76

CLV pp · steam

Open price

-126

Close price

-168

Open no-vig

53.2%

Close no-vig

60.0%

Market steamed in our direction

Line shop

Player props

Player projections

LAD vs ATL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

120

projections · 60 high confidence

Strikeouts

Blake SnellLAD
7.2± 3.7medium
Chris SaleATL
7.0± 3.1low
Emmet SheehanLAD
6.1± 3.5low

Hits

Andy PagesLAD
1.2± 1.0high
Freddie FreemanLAD
1.2± 0.6high
Drake BaldwinATL
1.1± 1.1high

Total bases

Matt OlsonATL
2.7± 2.1high
Ozzie AlbiesATL
2.2± 1.6high
Andy PagesLAD
2.1± 3.5high

RBIs

Matt OlsonATL
0.8± 0.6high
Andy PagesLAD
0.8± 1.9high
Ozzie AlbiesATL
0.7± 0.8high

Earned runs

Roki SasakiLAD
3.2± 2.3low
Emmet SheehanLAD
2.7± 1.9low
Grant HolmesATL
2.6± 2.0low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

The One modelLean

● Live

ATL

Braves

26-13

vs57.7%LAD

LAD★

Dodgers

24-14

ATL 42.3%win prob57.7% LAD

LAD 1577 · ATL 1546Box score→

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

MLBSat, May 9Top 5thSeriesLAD lead series 1-0VegasLAD -186

Updated 0s ago

ATL · top performer

Mauricio Dubon

1.333OPS

3-2

AB-H

RBI

LAD · top performer

Will Smith

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

RBI

MLB · Box scoreADVANCED

Top 5th

ATL26-13

LAD24-14

ATL26-13LAD24-14

ATL

26-13

	Batting
Player	H-AB	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
M. Dubon★SS	2-3	3	1	2	0	0	0	0
D. Baldwin★C	0-1	1	1	0	0	0	2	0
O. Albies★2B	2-3	3	1	2	2	0	0	0
M. Olson★1B	1-2	2	0	1	2	0	0	1
A. Riley★3B	0-2	2	0	0	1	0	0	0
M. Harris II★CF	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
S. Murphy★C	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
E. White★CF	1-2	2	1	1	0	0	0	0
J. Mateo★SS	1-2	2	1	1	0	0	0	1
Team	7-19	19	5	7	5	0	2	5

	Pitching
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	HR
S. Strider★SP	4.0	1	0	0	1	6	0
Team	4.0	1	0	0	1	6	0

LAD

24-14

	Batting
Player	H-AB	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
S. Ohtani★DH	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
F. Freeman★1B	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
W. Smith★C	1-1	1	0	1	0	0	1	0
K. Tucker★RF	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. Pages★CF	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. Muncy★3B	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
T. Hernández★LF	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
H. Kim★SS	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. Freeland★2B	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team	1-13	13	0	1	0	0	1	6

	Pitching
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	HR
B. Snell★SP	3.0	6	5	4	2	5	0
J. DreyerRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	0
Team	4.0	7	5	4	2	5	0

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

Hits

Runs

Errors

Current series

LAD lead series 1-0

May 9

ATL1@

LAD3

May 10

ATL@

LADtoday

May 10

ATL@

LADupcoming

Season series

LAD lead series 1-0

May 9

ATL1@

LAD3

May 10

ATL@

LADtoday

May 10

ATL@

LADupcoming

Aug 25

LAD@

ATLupcoming

Aug 26

LAD@

ATLupcoming

Aug 27

LAD@

ATLupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

LAD -1.5

Total

8.5

Standard · 0.0 vs avg

Moneyline

ATL+15340%

LAD-18665%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet LAD -1.5↗SpreadBet LAD -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

+1.5 since open

Total

8.5

-1.0 since open

Pitching matchup · today

ESPN · season stats

ATLSP

S. Strider

#99 · 0-0

ERA

8.10

—

Last 3 starts

5/3@

COL3.1 IP · 3 ER · 6 K-

LADSP

B. Snell

#7 · —

ERA

—

Last 3 starts

11/2@

TOR1.1 IP · 0 ER · 2 K-

10/30vs

TOR6.2 IP · 5 ER · 7 KL(3-2)

10/25@

TOR5.0 IP · 5 ER · 4 KL(3-1)

Starting lineups

ESPN · 1-9 batting order

ATL3L · 5R · 1S

1
M. Dubon
LF · #14
R
2
D. Baldwin
DH · #30
L
3
O. Albies
2B · #1
B
4
M. Olson
1B · #28
L
5
A. Riley
3B · #27
R
6
M. Harris II
CF · #23
L
7
S. Murphy
C · #12
R
8
E. White
RF · #36
R
9
J. Mateo
SS · #2
R

LAD5L · 3R · 1S

1
S. Ohtani
DH · #17
L
2
F. Freeman
1B · #5
L
3
W. Smith
C · #16
R
4
K. Tucker
RF · #23
L
5
A. Pages
CF · #44
R
6
M. Muncy
3B · #13
L
7
T. Hernandez
LF · #37
R
8
H. Kim
SS · #6
L
9
A. Freeland
2B · #76
B

Live · top performers so far

Top 5th

Game flowATL ↔ LAD

Recent swing: 18pp · Top 2nd Inning

Just happened

Pitch · 2 : Ball 1

ATL

M. Dubon

Batter of the game

2-for-3 · 1 R · 1.333 OPS

S. Strider

Starting pitcher

4.0 IP · 6 K · 0 ER · 1 H · 1 BB

On pace: 7 IP · 11 K · 0 ER

LAD

W. Smith

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 2.000 OPS

B. Snell

Starting pitcher

3.0 IP · 5 K · 4 ER · 6 H · 2 BB

On pace: 7 IP · 12 K · 9 ER

How it's going

ATL lead LAD 5-0 (Top 5th). Albies's play in the top 2nd inning drove the biggest swing of the night (18pp).

Win probability

LAD vs ATL

Score progression

0 lead changes

ATL5

LAD0

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

ATLTop 1st Inning · 0-0

+7pp→ 51% WP

Albies · reached on infield single to catcher, Baldwin to second, Dubón to third.

ATLTop 2nd Inning · 3-0

+18pp→ 68% WP

Albies · singled to left, Mateo scored and White scored, Baldwin to second.

Linescore (innings)

Team	1	2	3	4	5	R
ATL	1	4	0	0	0	5
LAD	0	0	0	0	—	0

Period scoring

ATL won 2 · LAD won 0

Inn 1

Riley 1

Inn 2

Albies 2

Inn 3

Inn 4

Inn 5

ATL

LAD

Play-by-play · 277 plays

period

event

player

T5
Pitch 2 : Ball 1
·
ATL 5·LAD 0
T5
Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul
·
ATL 5·LAD 0
T5
Jack Dreyer pitches to Matt Olson
·
ATL 5·LAD 0
T5
Top of the 5th inning
ATL 5·LAD 0
End 4t
End of the 4th inning
ATL 5·LAD 0
B4
· ·
ATL 5·LAD 0
B4
Pages grounded out to third.
· ·
ATL 5·LAD 0
B4
Pitch 8 : Ball In Play
· ·
ATL 5·LAD 0
B4
Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul
· ·
ATL 5·LAD 0
B4
Pitch 6 : Ball 3
· ·
ATL 5·LAD 0
B4
Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul
· ·
ATL 5·LAD 0
B4
Pitch 4 : Ball 2
· ·
ATL 5·LAD 0
B4
Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging
· ·
ATL 5·LAD 0
B4
Pitch 2 : Ball 1
· ·
ATL 5·LAD 0
B4
Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking
· ·
ATL 5·LAD 0
B4
Spencer Strider pitches to Andy Pages
· ·
ATL 5·LAD 0
B4
·
ATL 5·LAD 0
B4
Tucker grounded into fielder's choice to second, Smith out at second.
· ·
ATL 5·LAD 0
−3pp
B4
Pitch 4 : Ball In Play
· ·
ATL 5·LAD 0
B4
Pitch 3 : Ball 2
· ·
ATL 5·LAD 0
B4
Pitch 2 : Ball 1
· ·
ATL 5·LAD 0
B4
Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking
· ·
ATL 5·LAD 0
B4
Spencer Strider pitches to Kyle Tucker
· ·
ATL 5·LAD 0
B4
·
ATL 5·LAD 0
B4
Smith walked.
·
ATL 5·LAD 0
+2pp
B4
Pitch 5 : Ball 4
·
ATL 5·LAD 0
B4
Pitch 4 : Ball 3
·
ATL 5·LAD 0
B4
Pitch 3 : Ball 2
·
ATL 5·LAD 0
B4
Pitch 2 : Ball 1
·
ATL 5·LAD 0
B4
Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking
·
ATL 5·LAD 0

Team stats

ATL

Away

Stat

LAD

Home

Runs

Hits

Errors

LOB

Betting line

LAD -1.5·O/U 8.5·ATL +153/LAD -186

DraftKings · via ESPN