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THE ONE Analytics
Beta
NHL logoNHLHubScoresOddsPicksEdgesStandingsTrendsTeamsPlayersMethodologyGlossaryRoadmapAbout
COL logo
COL
0
Live8:24 - 2nd
MIN logo
MIN
3
Updated 10:27 PM ET
8:24 - 2ND+3MIN↑
COL

COL

55-16-11

0
3
MIN

MIN

46-24-12

Ensemble breakdown
Live model · pick
Receipts
Player props

↳ Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.0%

ensemble · MIN favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(MIN win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(MIN win)

    33%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(MIN win)

    33%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights are recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen

Player projections

MIN vs COL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

135

projections · 114 high confidence

Shots on goal

  • Nathan MacKinnonCOL
    4.1± 1.9high
  • Matt BoldyMIN
    4.1± 2.0high
  • Joel Eriksson EkMIN
    3.3± 1.6high

Goals

  • Nathan MacKinnonCOL
    0.6± 0.7high
  • Matt BoldyMIN
    0.6± 0.8high
  • Kirill KaprizovMIN
    0.5± 0.7high

Points

  • Nathan MacKinnonCOL
    1.5± 1.4high
  • Mats ZuccarelloMIN
    1.3± 1.0high
  • Martin NecasCOL
    1.2± 1.1high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

64%Last 7 · 68-38
59%Last 30 · 256-180
Receipts →
Live · 6
  • MLBTop 8
    MIN 1@CLE 1
    -16.7pppeak
  • MLBTop 5
    PIT 2@SF 0
    -44.9pplow
  • MLBTop 5
    ATL 5@LAD 0
    -56.7pplow
  • NBAEnd of 3rd
    OKC 90@LAL 79
  • WNBAEnd of 3rd
    CHI 68@POR 67
  • NHL8:24 - 2nd
    COL 0@MIN 3
NHL·Sat, May 9·8:24 - 2nd/Seriestied 2-2/VegasCOL -130
Updated 0s ago

COL · top performer

COL
Ross Colton

Ross Colton

C · #20

0Points

0

G

0

A

—

SOG

MIN · top performer

MIN
Kirill Kaprizov

Kirill Kaprizov

LW · #97

3Points

1

G

2

A

—

SOG

NHL · Colorado Avalanche at Minnesota Wild · live

NHL · Box score

8:24 - 2nd
COL55-16-11
0
3
MIN46-24-12
COL55-16-11·MIN46-24-12
COL

COL

55-16-11

0
 Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
 Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
 Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
 GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
MIN

MIN

46-24-12

3
 Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
 Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
 Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
 GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

6

PIM

6

Playoff series

COL leads series 2-0

May 4MINMIN6@COLCOL9
May 6MINMIN2@COLCOL5
May 10COLCOL@MINMINtoday
May 12COLCOL@MINMINupcoming
May 14MINMIN@COLCOLupcoming
May 16COLCOL@MINMINupcoming
May 17MINMIN@COLCOLupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

COL -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

COLCOL-13057%
MINMIN+11048%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet COL -1.5↗SpreadBet COL -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it's going

MIN lead COL 3-0 (8:24 - 2nd).

Linescore (quarters)

Team12T
COL000
MIN213

Period scoring

COL won 0 · MIN won 2

0
2

1

0
1

2

COL
MIN

Play-by-play · 173 plays

period
event
player
  1. 2nd·10:15

    Nazem Kadri faceoff won against Ryan Hartman

    ·

    COL 0·MIN 3

  2. 2nd·10:15

    Icing

    COL 0·MIN 3

  3. 2nd·9:07

    Zach Bogosian Wrist Shot saved by Mackenzie Blackwood

    ·

    COL 0·MIN 3

  4. 2nd·9:01

    Marcus Johansson Deflected Wide Left

    ·

    COL 0·MIN 3

  5. 2nd·9:00

    Matt Boldy Wrist Shot saved by Mackenzie Blackwood

    ·

    COL 0·MIN 3

  6. 2nd·8:03

    Nathan MacKinnon Wrist Shot saved by Jesper Wallstedt

    ·

    COL 0·MIN 3

  7. 2nd·8:00

    Martin Necas hit Quinn Hughes

    ·

    COL 0·MIN 3

  8. 2nd·7:51

    Gabriel Landeskog Wrist Shot saved by Jesper Wallstedt

    ·

    COL 0·MIN 3

  9. 2nd·7:31

    Ryan Hartman faceoff won against Nathan MacKinnon

    ·

    COL 0·MIN 3

  10. 2nd·7:31

    Puck in Netting

    COL 0·MIN 3

  11. 2nd·7:28

    Martin Necas shot blocked by Ryan Hartman

    ·

    COL 0·MIN 3

  12. 2nd·7:11

    Jared Spurgeon hit Martin Necas

    ·

    COL 0·MIN 3

  13. 2nd·7:09

    Martin Necas Wrist Shot saved by Jesper Wallstedt

    ·

    COL 0·MIN 3

  14. 2nd·6:54

    Nick Foligno hit Sam Malinski

    · ·

    COL 0·MIN 3

  15. 2nd·6:39

    Logan O'Connor hit Brock Faber

    ·

    COL 0·MIN 3

  16. 2nd·6:30

    Logan O'Connor hit Quinn Hughes

    ·

    COL 0·MIN 3

  17. 2nd·6:17

    Sam Malinski Slap Shot High and Wide Right

    ·

    COL 0·MIN 3

  18. 2nd·6:07

    Jack Drury hit Nico Sturm

    ·

    COL 0·MIN 3

  19. 2nd·6:06

    Giveaway by Nick Blankenburg

    COL 0·MIN 3

  20. 2nd·6:05

    Nick Foligno hit Nick Blankenburg

    · ·

    COL 0·MIN 3

  21. 2nd·5:53

    Brent Burns Slap Shot Wide Left

    ·

    COL 0·MIN 3

  22. 2nd·5:37

    Ross Colton Tip-In saved by Jesper Wallstedt

    ·

    COL 0·MIN 3

  23. 2nd·5:32

    Ross Colton hit Michael McCarron

    ·

    COL 0·MIN 3

  24. 2nd·5:20

    Nicolas Roy faceoff won against Michael McCarron

    ·

    COL 0·MIN 3

  25. 2nd·5:20

    Puck in Benches

    COL 0·MIN 3

  26. 2nd·5:10

    Matt Boldy Wrist Shot saved by Mackenzie Blackwood

    ·

    COL 0·MIN 3

  27. 2nd·4:51

    Brock Nelson faceoff won against Matt Boldy

    ·

    COL 0·MIN 3

  28. 2nd·4:51

    Off-side

    COL 0·MIN 3

  29. 2nd·4:29

    Kirill Kaprizov Backhand High and Wide Right

    ·

    COL 0·MIN 3

  30. 2nd·4:23

    Ryan Hartman faceoff won against Nathan MacKinnon

    ·

    COL 0·MIN 3

Team stats

COL

Away

Stat

MIN

Home

15

Shots

15

0.0

PCT

100.0

6

PIM

6

15

Faceoffs W

11

3

Blocks

6

8

Giveaways

10

1

Takeaways

4

Betting line

COL -1.5·O/U 6.5·COL -130/MIN +110

DraftKings · via ESPN