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FINAL+13TOR

LAA

15-25

114

TOR

18-21

Rogers Centre · Toronto, Ontario

41,461 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

TOR spread

-1.5

open PK · -1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 7.5 · +0.5

TOR no-vig %

60.8%

open 60.8%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = TOR favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

66.4%

ensemble · TOR favored

Elo Static
65.1%
P(TOR win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
69.1%
P(TOR win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
65.1%
P(TOR win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.88 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

88% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights are recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+0.77

CLV pp

Open price

-175

Close price

-181

Open no-vig

60.8%

Close no-vig

61.6%

Market came to the model · Graded: hit

Player projections

TOR vs LAA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

121

projections · 60 high confidence

Strikeouts

Dylan CeaseTOR
8.3± 3.7low
Jose SorianoLAA
6.7± 3.3low
Reid DetmersLAA
5.9± 3.3low

Hits

Nolan SchanuelLAA
1.2± 0.7high
Mike TroutLAA
1.1± 0.6high
Kazuma OkamotoTOR
1.1± 0.6high

Total bases

Kazuma OkamotoTOR
2.4± 2.6high
Mike TroutLAA
1.9± 1.6high
Jorge SolerLAA
1.7± 1.6high

RBIs

Kazuma OkamotoTOR
1.0± 1.1high
Jorge SolerLAA
0.8± 1.0high
Jo AdellLAA
0.4± 0.5high

Earned runs

Eric LauerTOR
3.0± 2.6low
Reid DetmersLAA
2.6± 2.2low
Jack KochanowiczLAA
2.0± 2.2low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TOR wins

LAA 1 · TOR 14 (by 13)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked TOR +15pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
LAA	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	1
TOR	0	0	0	1	7	0	2	4	14

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

MLBSat, May 9FinalSeriesTOR leads series 2-0VegasTOR -186

Recap · MLB

oronto Blue Jays held off Los Angeles Angels, 14–1. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

TOR -1.5 cashed (won by 13). Total cleared the 8.5 OVER by 6.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

LAA · top performer

Yoan Moncada

2.000OPS

2-2

AB-H

RBI

TOR · top performer

Ernie Clement

2.600OPS

5-5

AB-H

RBI

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final

LAA15-25

TOR18-21

LAA15-25TOR18-21

LAA

15-25

	Batting
Player	H-AB	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
Z. Neto★SS	1-5	5	0	1	0	0	0	3
M. Trout★CF	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	3
N. Schanuel★1B	1-4	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
J. Soler★RF	1-3	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. Adell★RF	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
Y. Moncada★3B	2-2	2	0	2	0	0	0	0
V. Grissom★2B	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	1	0
S. Rivero★C	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	1	0
J. Lowe★LF	2-4	4	0	2	0	0	0	1
B. TeodosioLF	0-1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
A. Frazier2B	1-1	1	0	1	1	0	0	0
O. Peraza2B	1-2	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
O. MartinezC	1-1	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
Team	10-34	34	1	10	1	0	2	9

	Pitching
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	HR
J. Kochanowicz★SP	4.0	9	7	6	2	0	0
M. FarrisRP	3.0	6	3	3	0	2	2
A. Frazier2B	1.0	5	4	4	1	0	1
Team	8.0	20	14	13	3	2	3

TOR

18-21

	Batting
Player	H-AB	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
G. Springer★DH	2-5	5	0	2	0	0	0	0
A. Barger★RF	0-3	3	1	0	0	0	2	1
V. Guerrero Jr.★1B	2-5	5	1	2	1	0	0	0
K. Okamoto★3B	1-4	4	1	1	1	0	0	0
J. Sanchez★LF	2-4	4	3	2	2	1	0	1
D. Varsho★CF	3-5	5	2	3	0	0	0	0
E. Clement★2B	5-5	5	3	5	2	1	0	0
A. Gimenez★SS	0-4	4	0	0	1	0	0	0
B. Valenzuela★C	4-5	5	3	4	4	1	0	0
T. HeinemanC	0-1	1	0	0	1	0	0	0
D. SchneiderLF	1-1	1	0	1	1	0	0	0
L. Sosa2B	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	0

Team	20-44	44	14	20	13	3	3	2

	Pitching
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	HR
T. Yesavage★SP	4.0	4	0	0	2	6	0
M. FluhartyRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	0
B. FisherRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. MantiplyRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0
T. RogersRP	1.0	3	1	1	0	0	0
T. NanceRP	1.0	3	0	0	0	1	0
Team	9.0	10	1	1	2	9	0

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

LAA

J. Kochanowicz
84 pitches20% CSW
- SI
  50%95.4 mph11% whiff
- SL
  19%84.2 mph29% whiff
- CH
  15%89.5 mph17% whiff
- FF
  15%95.6 mph0% whiff
M. Farris
58 pitches22% CSW
- FF
  41%91.5 mph0% whiff
- CH
  28%78.8 mph38% whiff
- SL
  17%80.8 mph17% whiff
- FC
  14%88.9 mph50% whiff
A. Frazier
29 pitches17% CSW
- SL
  48%59.0 mph0% whiff
- CH
  31%73.2 mph0% whiff
- CU
  21%52.8 mph0% whiff

TOR

T. Yesavage
87 pitches29% CSW
- FF
  38%94.7 mph6% whiff
- FS
  37%82.4 mph42% whiff
- SL
  25%88.4 mph46% whiff
T. Rogers
25 pitches28% CSW
- SI
  68%83.3 mph18% whiff
- SL
  32%73.4 mph0% whiff
M. Fluharty
12 pitches25% CSW
- FC
  50%90.2 mph0% whiff
- ST
  33%79.6 mph33% whiff
- CH
  17%85.1 mph0% whiff
B. Fisher
12 pitches33% CSW
- SL
  42%89.6 mph50% whiff
- CU
  33%83.0 mph33% whiff
- FF
  25%96.1 mph0% whiff
J. Mantiply
10 pitches10% CSW
- CH
  40%80.1 mph50% whiff
- CU
  30%79.3 mph0% whiff
- SI
  30%88.5 mph0% whiff
T. Nance
9 pitches33% CSW
- SI
  67%95.2 mph20% whiff
- CU
  22%85.3 mph50% whiff
- SL
  11%88.7 mph0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

Hits

Runs

Errors

Current series

TOR leads series 2-0

May 8

LAA0@

TOR2

May 9

LAA1@

TOR14today

May 10

LAA@

TORupcoming

Season series

TOR leads series 4-1

Apr 21

TOR5@

LAA2

Apr 22

TOR4@

LAA2

Apr 22

TOR3@

LAA7

May 8

LAA0@

TOR2

May 9

LAA1@

TOR14today

May 10

LAA@

TORupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

TOR -1.5

Total

8.5

Standard · 0.0 vs avg

Moneyline

LAA+15340%

TOR-18665%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet TOR -1.5↗SpreadBet TOR -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

+1.5 since open

Total

8.5

+0.5 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowLAA ↔ TOR

Biggest swing: 19pp · Bottom 4th Inning

LAA

A. Frazier

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 2.000 OPS

M. Farris

Top reliever

3.0 IP · 2 K · 3 ER · 6 H

TOR

E. Clement

Batter of the gamePerfect day

5-for-5 · 1 HR · 2.600 OPS

T. Yesavage

Starting pitcher

4.0 IP · 6 K · 0 ER · 4 H · 2 BB

How it ended

TOR beat LAA 14-1. Biggest WP swing of the night came in the bottom 4th inning (19pp).

Win probability

TOR vs LAA

Score progression

0 lead changes

LAA1

TOR14

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

TORBottom 2nd Inning · 0-0

+9pp→ 68% WP

Okamoto · grounded out to second.

TORBottom 4th Inning · 0-0

+19pp→ 70% WP

Sánchez hit by pitch.

TORBottom 5th Inning · 0-2

+8pp→ 91% WP

Okamoto · singled to left, Barger scored, Guerrero Jr. to third.

Linescore (innings)

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
LAA	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	1
TOR	0	0	0	1	7	0	2	4	—	14

Period scoring

LAA won 0 · TOR won 4

Inn 1

Inn 2

Inn 3

Inn 4

Gim 1

Inn 5

Valenzuela 3

Inn 6

Inn 7

Clement 1

Inn 8

Frazier 1

Valenzuela 1

Inn 9

LAA

TOR

Play-by-play · 639 plays

period

event

player

T9
· ·
LAA 1·TOR 14
T9
Neto struck out swinging.
· ·
LAA 1·TOR 14
T9
Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Swinging
· ·
LAA 1·TOR 14
T9
Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging
· ·
LAA 1·TOR 14
T9
Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul
· ·
LAA 1·TOR 14
T9
Tommy Nance pitches to Zach Neto
· ·
LAA 1·TOR 14
T9
· ·
LAA 1·TOR 14
T9
Lowe singled to center, Martínez to second.
· ·
LAA 1·TOR 14
T9
Pitch 2 : Ball In Play
· ·
LAA 1·TOR 14
T9
Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul
· ·
LAA 1·TOR 14
T9
Tommy Nance pitches to Josh Lowe
· ·
LAA 1·TOR 14
T9
·
LAA 1·TOR 14
T9
Martínez singled to right.
·
LAA 1·TOR 14
T9
Pitch 1 : Ball In Play
·
LAA 1·TOR 14
T9
Tommy Nance pitches to Omar Martinez
·
LAA 1·TOR 14
T9
Martínez hit for Rivero
·
LAA 1·TOR 14
T9
·
LAA 1·TOR 14
T9
Grissom grounded into double play, shortstop to second to first, Peraza out at second.
· ·
LAA 1·TOR 14
T9
Pitch 1 : Ball In Play
· ·
LAA 1·TOR 14
T9
Tommy Nance pitches to Vaughn Grissom
· ·
LAA 1·TOR 14
T9
·
LAA 1·TOR 14
T9
Peraza singled to right.
·
LAA 1·TOR 14
T9
Pitch 2 : Ball In Play
·
LAA 1·TOR 14
T9
Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking
·
LAA 1·TOR 14
T9
Tommy Nance pitches to Oswald Peraza
·
LAA 1·TOR 14
T9
Nance relieved Rogers
·
LAA 1·TOR 14
T9
Straw in right field.
LAA 1·TOR 14
T9
Heineman as designated hitter.
LAA 1·TOR 14
T9
Top of the 9th inning
LAA 1·TOR 14
End 8t
End of the 8th inning
LAA 1·TOR 14

Team stats

LAA

Away

Stat

TOR

Home

Runs

Hits

Errors

LOB

Betting line

TOR -1.5·O/U 8.5·LAA +153/TOR -186

DraftKings · via ESPN