MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

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BOT 7THTied

WSH

19-20

MIA

17-22

Live · model leanBot 7thPolls every 30s

51.9%

MIA wins · current

Pre-game: 54.6% MIA

WSH 4 · 4 MIA

Tied

Live momentum · cumulative diff

Inn 7

away leadsMIA leads

Key moments · live

newest first

Lead flipMIABottom 7th Inning · 4-4
+25pp→ 57% WP
Edwards · homered to left center (422 feet).
ClutchMIABottom 6th Inning · 4-2
+9pp→ 38% WP
Marsee · walked, Norby stole third.
SwingWSHBottom 5th Inning · 4-2
+8pp→ 74% WP
Hicks · flied out to right.
SwingMIABottom 4th Inning · 4-2
+16pp→ 33% WP
Stowers · homered to right (380 feet), Lopez scored.
SwingWSHTop 1st Inning · 1-0
+10pp→ 62% WP
House · doubled to left, García Jr. to third.

loanDepot park · Miami, Florida

Probable starters

The mound matchup

Combined ERA 10.06

Z. Littell

1-4 · 7.24 ERA

J. Junk

2-3 · 2.82 ERA

Line movement

200 snapshots

MIA spread

-1.5

open PK · -1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.5

MIA no-vig %

59.3%

open 58.3% · +1.0

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = MIA favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Ensemble breakdown

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

55.9%

ensemble · MIA favored

Elo Static
54.6%
P(MIA win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
59.1%
P(MIA win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
54.0%
P(MIA win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

2.27 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

85% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights are recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen

Live model · pick

Live · model intelligence

81% confidence

Win prob · home

57.3%

+2.7ppvs pre-game · MIA favored

Leverage

peak

Tied · home ball

Live edge

—

No fresh in-play moneyline. Live edge needs a snapshot in the last 5 minutes.

Live WP recomputes every 30 seconds from current score, time remaining, and possession state. Leverage measures how much the next play could swing the result.

Receipts

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-1.04

CLV pp

Open price

+129

Close price

+135

Open no-vig

41.7%

Close no-vig

40.7%

Market faded the model

Line shop

Player props

Player projections

MIA vs WSH.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 63 high confidence

Strikeouts

Eury PerezMIA
5.6± 2.5low
Max MeyerMIA
5.6± 1.8low
Foster GriffinWSH
5.3± 3.7low

Hits

Otto LopezMIA
1.7± 0.9high
CJ AbramsWSH
1.2± 1.2high
Xavier EdwardsMIA
1.1± 0.5high

Total bases

Otto LopezMIA
2.4± 1.3high
Liam HicksMIA
2.1± 2.4high
CJ AbramsWSH
2.1± 2.7high

RBIs

CJ AbramsWSH
1.1± 1.6high
Liam HicksMIA
1.0± 1.3high
Brady HouseWSH
0.7± 1.5high

Earned runs

Zack LittellWSH
3.7± 3.5low
Miles MikolasWSH
3.4± 4.4low
Eury PerezMIA
2.9± 2.1low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

The One modelLean

● Live

WSH

Nationals

20-20

vs54.6%MIA

MIA★

Marlins

17-22

WSH 45.4%win prob54.6% MIA

MIA 1478 · WSH 1470Box score→

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

MLBSat, May 9Bot 7thSeriesWSH leads series 1-0VegasMIA -163

Updated 0s ago

WSH · top performer

James Wood

2.667OPS

2-1

AB-H

RBI

MIA · top performer

Kyle Stowers

2.333OPS

3-2

AB-H

RBI

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Bot 7thTied

WSH19-20

MIA17-22

WSH19-20MIA17-22

WSH

19-20

	Batting
Player	H-AB	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
J. Wood★RF	1-2	2	1	1	1	1	1	0
L. Garcia Jr.★1B	2-4	4	1	2	0	0	0	0
B. House★3B	1-4	4	1	1	0	0	0	2
C. Abrams★SS	2-3	3	1	2	2	0	0	0
D. Lile★LF	1-2	2	0	1	1	0	0	0
J. Young★CF	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. Tena★2B	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	1	1
D. Millas★C	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
N. Nunez★2B	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
Team	7-26	26	4	7	4	1	2	8

	Pitching
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	HR
R. Lovelady★RP	2.0	1	0	0	1	3	0
Z. LittellSP	4.0	5	3	2	1	0	1
M. ParkerRP	0.2	2	1	1	0	1	1
Team	6.2	8	4	3	2	4	2

MIA

17-22

	Batting
Player	H-AB	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
X. Edwards★2B	1-4	4	1	1	1	1	0	1
O. Lopez★SS	2-4	4	1	2	0	0	0	0
L. Hicks★C	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	1	0
K. Stowers★LF	2-3	3	1	2	2	1	0	0
C. Norby★1B	1-3	3	1	1	0	0	0	0
J. Marsee★CF	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	1	1
O. Caissie★RF	0-2	2	0	0	1	0	0	1
L. Jimenez★2B	1-3	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. Mack★C	1-3	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
Team	8-26	26	4	8	4	2	2	4

	Pitching
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	HR
J. Junk★SP	6.0	7	4	4	2	6	1
L. BacharRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	0
Team	7.0	7	4	4	2	8	1

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

WSH

Z. Littell
69 pitches16% CSW
- SL
  33%88.5 mph8% whiff
- FF
  32%91.6 mph0% whiff
- FS
  19%84.1 mph0% whiff
- SI
  10%91.8 mph0% whiff
- ST
  6%78.5 mph— whiff
R. Lovelady
30 pitches37% CSW
- ST
  50%81.5 mph43% whiff
- SI
  33%91.3 mph0% whiff
- FF
  17%91.7 mph50% whiff
M. Parker
22 pitches27% CSW
- SL
  55%83.3 mph14% whiff
- FF
  27%94.0 mph0% whiff
- CU
  14%79.3 mph— whiff
- FS
  5%83.5 mph— whiff

MIA

J. Junk
94 pitches30% CSW
- FF
  37%93.9 mph0% whiff
- SL
  24%86.1 mph25% whiff
- CH
  20%86.7 mph44% whiff
- ST
  10%79.7 mph0% whiff
- CU
  9%80.2 mph0% whiff
L. Bachar
13 pitches38% CSW
- SL
  38%90.4 mph100% whiff
- FF
  31%95.3 mph0% whiff
- ST
  23%85.6 mph0% whiff
- FS
  8%82.4 mph— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

Hits

Runs

Errors

Current series

WSH leads series 1-0

May 8

WSH3@

MIA2

May 9

WSH@

MIAtoday

May 10

WSH@

MIAupcoming

Season series

WSH leads series 1-0

May 8

WSH3@

MIA2

May 9

WSH@

MIAtoday

May 10

WSH@

MIAupcoming

Jun 1

MIA@

WSHupcoming

Jun 2

MIA@

WSHupcoming

Jun 3

MIA@

WSHupcoming

Aug 21

WSH@

MIAupcoming

Aug 22

WSH@

MIAupcoming

Aug 23

WSH@

MIAupcoming

Aug 28

MIA@

WSHupcoming

Aug 29

MIA@

WSHupcoming

Aug 30

MIA@

WSHupcoming

Aug 31

MIA@

WSHupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

MIA -1.5

Total

8.5

Standard · 0.0 vs avg

Moneyline

WSH+13543%

MIA-16362%

7· 6.2h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet MIA -1.5↗SpreadBet MIA -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

+1.5 since open

Total

8.5

0.0 since open

Pitching matchup · today

ESPN · season stats

WSHSP

Z. Littell

#18 · 1-4

ERA

7.24

—

Last 3 starts

5/3vs

MIL3.2 IP · 1 ER · 1 KW(1-4)

4/28@

NYM3.2 IP · 4 ER · 1 KL(0-4)

4/22vs

ATL6.0 IP · 6 ER · 1 KL(0-3)

MIASP

J. Junk

#26 · 2-3

ERA

2.82

—

Last 3 starts

5/4vs

PHI5.1 IP · 1 ER · 6 KL(2-3)

4/29@

LAD6.0 IP · 0 ER · 4 KW(2-2)

4/22vs

STL5.0 IP · 0 ER · 2 KW(1-2)

Starting lineups

ESPN · 1-9 batting order

WSH5L · 2R · 2S

1
J. Wood
RF · #29
L
2
L. Garcia Jr.
1B · #2
L
3
B. House
3B · #12
R
4
C. Abrams
SS · #5
L
5
D. Lile
LF · #4
L
6
J. Young
CF · #30
R
7
J. Tena
DH · #8
L
8
D. Millas
C · #14
B
9
N. Nunez
2B · #26
B

MIA5L · 3R · 1S

1
X. Edwards
2B · #9
B
2
O. Lopez
SS · #6
R
3
L. Hicks
DH · #34
L
4
K. Stowers
LF · #28
L
5
C. Norby
1B · #1
R
6
J. Marsee
CF · #87
L
7
O. Caissie
RF · #17
L
8
L. Jimenez
3B · #19
R
9
J. Mack
C · #80
L

Live · top performers so far

Bot 7th

Game flowWSH ↔ MIA

Recent swing: 25pp · Bottom 7th Inning

Just happened

Mitchell Parker · pitches to Liam Hicks

WSH

J. Wood

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-2 · 1 HR · 2.667 OPS

Z. Littell

Top reliever

4.0 IP · 2 ER · 5 H · 1 BB

MIA

K. Stowers

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-3 · 1 HR · 2.333 OPS

J. Junk

Starting pitcher

6.0 IP · 6 K · 4 ER · 7 H · 2 BB

On pace: 7 IP · 7 K · 5 ER

How it's going

Tied 4-4 · Bot 7th. Edwards's play in the bottom 7th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (25pp).

Win probability

MIA vs WSH

Score progression

0 lead changes

WSH4

MIA4

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

WSHTop 1st Inning · 1-0

+10pp→ 62% WP

House · doubled to left, García Jr. to third.

MIABottom 4th Inning · 4-2

+16pp→ 33% WP

Stowers · homered to right (380 feet), Lopez scored.

MIABottom 7th Inning · 4-4

+25pp→ 57% WP

Edwards · homered to left center (422 feet).

Linescore (innings)

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	R
WSH	3	0	1	0	0	0	0	4
MIA	0	0	0	2	0	1	1	4

Period scoring

WSH won 2 · MIA won 3

Inn 1

Abrams 2

Inn 2

Inn 3

Lile 1

Inn 4

Stowers 2

Inn 5

Inn 6

Caissie 1

Inn 7

Edwards 1

WSH

MIA

Play-by-play · 446 plays

period

event

player

B7
Mitchell Parker pitches to Liam Hicks
· ·
WSH 4·MIA 4
B7
·
WSH 4·MIA 4
B7
Lopez doubled to left.
·
WSH 4·MIA 4
+5pp
B7
Pitch 5 : Ball In Play
·
WSH 4·MIA 4
B7
Pitch 4 : Ball 2
·
WSH 4·MIA 4
B7
Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul
·
WSH 4·MIA 4
B7
Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul
·
WSH 4·MIA 4
B7
Pitch 1 : Ball 1
·
WSH 4·MIA 4
B7
Mitchell Parker pitches to Otto Lopez
·
WSH 4·MIA 4
B7
·
WSH 4·MIA 4
B7
Edwards homered to left center (422 feet).BIG MOMENT
·
WSH 4·MIA 4
+25pp
B7
Pitch 6 : Ball In Play
·
WSH 4·MIA 4
B7
Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking
·
WSH 4·MIA 3
B7
Pitch 4 : Ball 3
·
WSH 4·MIA 3
B7
Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul
·
WSH 4·MIA 3
B7
Pitch 2 : Ball 2
·
WSH 4·MIA 3
B7
Pitch 1 : Ball 1
·
WSH 4·MIA 3
B7
Mitchell Parker pitches to Xavier Edwards
·
WSH 4·MIA 4
B7
·
WSH 4·MIA 3
B7
Mack struck out swinging.
·
WSH 4·MIA 3
−3pp
B7
Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Swinging
·
WSH 4·MIA 3
B7
Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking
·
WSH 4·MIA 3
B7
Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking
·
WSH 4·MIA 3
B7
Mitchell Parker pitches to Joe Mack
·
WSH 4·MIA 3
B7
·
WSH 4·MIA 3
B7
Jiménez flied out to center.
·
WSH 4·MIA 3
−5pp
B7
Pitch 8 : Ball In Play
·
WSH 4·MIA 3
B7
Pitch 7 : Ball 3
·
WSH 4·MIA 3
B7
Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul
·
WSH 4·MIA 3
B7
Pitch 5 : Ball 2
·
WSH 4·MIA 3

Team stats

WSH

Away

Stat

MIA

Home

Runs

Hits

Errors

LOB

Betting line

MIA -1.5·O/U 8.5·WSH +135/MIA -163

DraftKings · via ESPN