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  • MLBTop 9
    NYM 1@ARI 1
    -13.9pppeak
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    ATL 1@LAD 2
    +28.7ppmedium
  • MLBBot 7
    PIT 1@SF 2
    +44.0ppmedium
  • MLBBot 7
    STL 6@SD 0
    -54.7pplow
  • NBA10:00 - 4th
    SA 90@MIN 81
    -45.5pphigh
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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+4SEA
SEA

SEA

19-20

12
8
CHW

CHW

17-21

Rate Field · Chicago, Illinois
23,011 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

CHW spread

+1.5

open PK · +1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 7.5 · +0.5

CHW no-vig %

43.7%

open 44.9% · -1.2

+2.0-0.5CHW SPREADO/U 8.5O/U 7.0TOTAL48.9%39.7%CHW NO-VIG %MODEL 44.7%May 7, 5 PMMay 8, 12 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = CHW favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

SEA wins

SEA 12 · CHW 8 (by 4)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked SEA +5pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
SEA01401033012
CHW1040000218

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

65%Last 7 · 68-37
59%Last 30 · 249-175
Receipts →

Player projections

CHW vs SEA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

122

projections · 59 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Emerson HancockSEA
    6.6± 5.1low
  • Davis MartinCHW
    6.1± 3.1low
  • Logan GilbertSEA
    5.4± 2.2low

Hits

  • Chase MeidrothCHW
    1.1± 0.6high
  • Cole YoungSEA
    1.1± 1.2high
  • Josh NaylorSEA
    1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    2.1± 2.7high
  • Munetaka MurakamiCHW
    1.9± 2.6high
  • Colson MontgomeryCHW
    1.7± 1.7high

RBIs

  • Munetaka MurakamiCHW
    0.8± 1.3high
  • Andrew BenintendiCHW
    0.6± 1.0high
  • Drew RomoCHW
    0.6± 1.5low

Earned runs

  • Luis CastilloSEA
    3.4± 3.7low
  • Anthony KayCHW
    2.7± 3.5low
  • Noah SchultzCHW
    2.6± 3.6low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

44.4%

ensemble · SEA favored

  • Elo Static

    44.7%

    P(CHW win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    44.1%

    P(CHW win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    44.5%

    P(CHW win)

    33%

    weight

Disagreement

0.25 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights are recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen

MLB·Fri, May 8·Final/SeriesSEA leads series 1-0/VegasSEA -138

Recap · MLB

Seattle Mariners went into Chicago White Sox and beat them, 12–8.

SEA -1.5 cashed (won by 4). Total cleared the 8.0 OVER by 12.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

SEA · top performer

SEA
Luke Raley

Luke Raley

RF

2.000OPS

5-2

AB-H

2

R

7

RBI

CHW · top performer

CHW
Randal Grichuk

Randal Grichuk

LF

5.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

Box score · Seattle Mariners at Chicago White Sox · final

MLB · Box score

SEA

12

19-20

Final

CHW

8

17-21

SEA

SEA

19-20

12
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
B. DonovanB. Donovan★3B1-55110000
C. RaleighC. Raleigh★C0-55000001
J. RodriguezJ. Rodriguez★CF2-55221100
J. NaylorJ. Naylor★1B3-55333100
R. ArozarenaR. Arozarena★LF3-44230000
J.P. CrawfordJ.P. Crawford★SS1-33210021
L. RaleyL. Raley★RF2-55227202
D. CanzoneD. Canzone★RF0-11000010
C. YoungC. Young★2B0-22001002
R. RefsnyderR. RefsnyderRF0-33000001
Team12-3838121212437
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
E. HancockE. Hancock★SP6.0555341
E. BazardoE. BazardoRP1.0100000
A. HoppeA. HoppeRP1.0322010
J. SimpsonJ. SimpsonRP1.0111021
Team9.01088372
CHW

CHW

17-21

8
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
S. AntonacciS. Antonacci★LF2-44121000
M. MurakamiM. Murakami★1B1-44211112
M. VargasM. Vargas★3B1-33210010
C. MontgomeryC. Montgomery★SS1-55013002
C. MeidrothC. Meidroth★2B1-44010002
A. BenintendiA. Benintendi★LF1-44110001
J. KelenicJ. Kelenic★RF1-44011000
T. PetersT. Peters★CF1-33111010
D. RomoD. Romo★C0-44000000
R. GrichukR. GrichukLF1-11111100
Team10-36368108237
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
S. BurkeS. Burke★SP4.1666242
S. NewcombS. NewcombRP1.2100000
T. DavisT. DavisRP1.0233101
T. RichardsT. RichardsRP1.0333011
S. DominguezS. DominguezRP1.0000020
Team9.0121212374

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

12

Hits

10

12

Runs

8

0

Errors

1

Current series

SEA leads series 1-0

May 8SEASEA12@CHWCHW8today
May 9SEASEA@CHWCHWupcoming
May 10SEASEA@CHWCHWupcoming

Season series

SEA leads series 1-0

May 8SEASEA12@CHWCHW8today
May 9SEASEA@CHWCHWupcoming
May 10SEASEA@CHWCHWupcoming
May 19CHWCHW@SEASEAupcoming
May 20CHWCHW@SEASEAupcoming
May 20CHWCHW@SEASEAupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

SEA -1.5

↗1.5pt· 6.2h

Total

8.0

Defensive · -0.5 vs avg

↗0.5pt· 6.2h

Moneyline

SEASEA-13858%
CHWCHW+11547%

↗6· 6.2h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet SEA -1.5↗SpreadBet SEA -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

+1.5 since open

Total

8.0

+0.5 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowSEA ↔ CHW

Biggest swing: 33pp · Top 3rd Inning

SEASEA
L. Raley

L. Raley

RF

Batter of the game2-HR game

2-for-5 · 2 HR · 2.000 OPS

E. Hancock

E. Hancock

SP

Starting pitcher

6.0 IP · 4 K · 5 ER · 5 H · 3 BB

CHWCHW
R. Grichuk

R. Grichuk

LF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 1 HR · 5.000 OPS

S. Burke

S. Burke

SP

Starting pitcher

4.1 IP · 4 K · 6 ER · 6 H · 2 BB

How it ended

SEA beat CHW 12-8. Raley's play in the top 3rd inning drove the biggest swing of the night (33pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

CHW vs SEA

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Score progression

0 lead changes

T2T3T4T5T6T7T8T9
SEA12
CHW8

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
SEATop 3rd Inning · 5-1
+33pp→ 86% WP

Raley · homered to right center (372 feet), Naylor scored, Arozarena scored and Crawford scored.

CHWBottom 3rd Inning · 5-5
+24pp→ 57% WP

Montgomery · doubled to center, Antonacci scored, Vargas scored and Murakami scored.

SEATop 7th Inning · 9-5
+21pp→ 94% WP

Raley · homered to right (372 feet), Arozarena scored and Crawford scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
SEA01401033012
CHW1040000218

Period scoring

SEA won 4 · CHW won 2

0
1

Inn 1

Murakami 1

1
0

Inn 2

Young 1

4
4

Inn 3

Raley 4

Montgomery 3

0
0

Inn 4

1
0

Inn 5

Rodr 1

0
0

Inn 6

3
0

Inn 7

Raley 3

3
2

Inn 8

Naylor 3

Kelenic 1

0
1

Inn 9

Grichuk 1

SEA
CHW

Play-by-play · 605 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    SEA 12·CHW 8

  2. B9

    ·

    SEA 12·CHW 8

  3. B9

    Montgomery struck out swinging.

    ·

    SEA 12·CHW 8

  4. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    SEA 12·CHW 8

  5. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    SEA 12·CHW 8

  6. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    SEA 12·CHW 8

  7. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    SEA 12·CHW 8

  8. B9

    Josh Simpson pitches to Colson Montgomery

    ·

    SEA 12·CHW 8

  9. B9

    ·

    SEA 12·CHW 8

  10. B9

    Vargas grounded out to second.

    ·

    SEA 12·CHW 8

    −0.6pp

  11. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    SEA 12·CHW 8

  12. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    SEA 12·CHW 8

  13. B9

    Josh Simpson pitches to Miguel Vargas

    ·

    SEA 12·CHW 8

  14. B9

    ·

    SEA 12·CHW 8

  15. B9

    Murakami struck out swinging.

    ·

    SEA 12·CHW 8

    −1pp

  16. B9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    SEA 12·CHW 8

  17. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 2

    ·

    SEA 12·CHW 8

  18. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    SEA 12·CHW 8

  19. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    SEA 12·CHW 8

  20. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    SEA 12·CHW 8

  21. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    SEA 12·CHW 8

  22. B9

    Josh Simpson pitches to Munetaka Murakami

    ·

    SEA 12·CHW 8

  23. B9

    ·

    SEA 12·CHW 8

  24. B9

    Grichuk homered to left (378 feet).

    ·

    SEA 12·CHW 8

    +1pp

  25. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    SEA 12·CHW 8

  26. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    SEA 12·CHW 7

  27. B9

    Josh Simpson pitches to Randal Grichuk

    ·

    SEA 12·CHW 8

  28. B9

    Simpson relieved Hoppe

    ·

    SEA 12·CHW 7

  29. B9

    Grichuk hit for Antonacci

    ·

    SEA 12·CHW 7

  30. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    SEA 12·CHW 7

Team stats

SEA

Away

Stat

CHW

Home

12

Runs

8

12

Hits

10

0

Errors

1

24

TB

19

4

HR

2

3

BB

3

7

K

7

11

LOB

11

Betting line

SEA -1.5·O/U 8·SEA -138/CHW +115

DraftKings · via ESPN