
SEA
19-20

CHW
17-21
Line movement
200 snapshots
CHW spread
+1.5
open PK · +1.5
Total
O/U 8.0
open O/U 7.5 · +0.5
CHW no-vig %
43.7%
open 44.9% · -1.2
Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = CHW favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.
Postgame · final
Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.
Final
SEA wins
SEA 12 · CHW 8 (by 4)
Model verdict
✓ Hit
Picked SEA +5pp
Against the spread
No spread
Line score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 12 |
| CHW | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
Final play
“End of the 9th inning”
What's next
See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.
21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.
Player projections
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
122
projections · 59 high confidence
Strikeouts
Hits
Total bases
RBIs
Earned runs
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
44.4%
ensemble · SEA favored
Elo Static
44.7%
P(CHW win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
44.1%
P(CHW win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
44.5%
P(CHW win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.25 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
98% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights are recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen
Recap · MLB
eattle Mariners went into Chicago White Sox and beat them, 12–8.
SEA -1.5 cashed (won by 4). Total cleared the 8.0 OVER by 12.0.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
SEA · top performer

Luke Raley
RF
5-2
AB-H
2
R
7
RBI
CHW · top performer

Randal Grichuk
LF
1-1
AB-H
1
R
1
RBI
MLB · Box score
SEA
12
19-20
CHW
8
17-21
SEA
19-20
| Batting | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K |
B. Donovan★3B | 1-5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
C. Raleigh★C | 0-5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
J. Rodriguez★CF | 2-5 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
J. Naylor★1B | 3-5 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
R. Arozarena★LF | 3-4 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
J.P. Crawford★SS | 1-3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
L. Raley★RF | 2-5 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
D. Canzone★RF | 0-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
C. Young★2B | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
R. RefsnyderRF | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Team | 12-38 | 38 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 4 | 3 | 7 |
| Pitching | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR |
E. Hancock★SP | 6.0 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 1 |
E. BazardoRP | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
A. HoppeRP | 1.0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
J. SimpsonRP | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
| Team | 9.0 | 10 | 8 | 8 | 3 | 7 | 2 |
CHW
17-21
| Batting | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K |
S. Antonacci★LF | 2-4 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
M. Murakami★1B | 1-4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
M. Vargas★3B | 1-3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
C. Montgomery★SS | 1-5 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
C. Meidroth★2B | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
A. Benintendi★LF | 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
J. Kelenic★RF | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
T. Peters★CF | 1-3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
D. Romo★C | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
R. GrichukLF | 1-1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 10-36 | 36 | 8 | 10 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 7 |
| Pitching | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR |
S. Burke★SP | 4.1 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 2 |
S. NewcombRP | 1.2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
T. DavisRP | 1.0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
T. RichardsRP | 1.0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
S. DominguezRP | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| Team | 9.0 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 3 | 7 | 4 |
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
12
Hits
10
12
Runs
8
0
Errors
1
Current series
SEA leads series 1-0
Season series
SEA leads series 1-0
Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
SEA -1.5
1.5pt· 6.2h
Total
8.0
Defensive · -0.5 vs avg
0.5pt· 6.2h
Moneyline
6· 6.2h
Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 200 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
1.5
+1.5 since open
Total
8.0
+0.5 since open
Headlines · top performers
Biggest swing: 33pp · Top 3rd Inning
L. Raley
RFBatter of the game2-HR game
2-for-5 · 2 HR · 2.000 OPS
E. Hancock
SPStarting pitcher
6.0 IP · 4 K · 5 ER · 5 H · 3 BB
R. Grichuk
LFBatter of the gamePerfect day
1-for-1 · 1 HR · 5.000 OPS
S. Burke
SPStarting pitcher
4.1 IP · 4 K · 6 ER · 6 H · 2 BB
How it ended
SEA beat CHW 12-8. Raley's play in the top 3rd inning drove the biggest swing of the night (33pp).
Last play
End of the 9th inning
Win probability
CHW vs SEA
Score progression
0 lead changes
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactRaley · homered to right center (372 feet), Naylor scored, Arozarena scored and Crawford scored.
Montgomery · doubled to center, Antonacci scored, Vargas scored and Murakami scored.
Raley · homered to right (372 feet), Arozarena scored and Crawford scored.
Linescore (innings)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 12 |
| CHW | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
Period scoring
SEA won 4 · CHW won 2
Inn 1
Murakami 1
Inn 2
Young 1
Inn 3
Raley 4
Montgomery 3
Inn 4
Inn 5
Rodr 1
Inn 6
Inn 7
Raley 3
Inn 8
Naylor 3
Kelenic 1
Inn 9
Grichuk 1
Play-by-play · 605 plays
End of the 9th inning
SEA 12·CHW 8
·
SEA 12·CHW 8
Montgomery struck out swinging.
·
SEA 12·CHW 8
Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging
·
SEA 12·CHW 8
Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging
·
SEA 12·CHW 8
Pitch 2 : Ball 1
·
SEA 12·CHW 8
Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking
·
SEA 12·CHW 8
Josh Simpson pitches to Colson Montgomery
·
SEA 12·CHW 8
·
SEA 12·CHW 8
Vargas grounded out to second.
·
SEA 12·CHW 8
−0.6pp
Pitch 2 : Ball In Play
·
SEA 12·CHW 8
Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking
·
SEA 12·CHW 8
Josh Simpson pitches to Miguel Vargas
·
SEA 12·CHW 8
·
SEA 12·CHW 8
Murakami struck out swinging.
·
SEA 12·CHW 8
−1pp
Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Swinging
·
SEA 12·CHW 8
Pitch 5 : Ball 2
·
SEA 12·CHW 8
Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul
·
SEA 12·CHW 8
Pitch 3 : Ball 1
·
SEA 12·CHW 8
Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging
·
SEA 12·CHW 8
Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking
·
SEA 12·CHW 8
Josh Simpson pitches to Munetaka Murakami
·
SEA 12·CHW 8
·
SEA 12·CHW 8
Grichuk homered to left (378 feet).
·
SEA 12·CHW 8
+1pp
Pitch 2 : Ball In Play
·
SEA 12·CHW 8
Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking
·
SEA 12·CHW 7
Josh Simpson pitches to Randal Grichuk
·
SEA 12·CHW 8
Simpson relieved Hoppe
·
SEA 12·CHW 7
Grichuk hit for Antonacci
·
SEA 12·CHW 7
Bottom of the 9th inning
SEA 12·CHW 7
Team stats
SEA
Away
Stat
CHW
Home
12
Runs
8
12
Hits
10
0
Errors
1
24
TB
19
4
HR
2
3
BB
3
7
K
7
11
LOB
11
Betting line
SEA -1.5·O/U 8·SEA -138/CHW +115