MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

Free during beta —Free during beta — to track favorite players + get game alertsto track favorites + alerts

FINAL+6MIL

NYY

26-13

MIL

20-16

American Family Field · Milwaukee, Wisconsin

38,051 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

MIL spread

+1.5

open PK · +1.5

Total

O/U 7.0

open O/U 7.0

MIL no-vig %

43.7%

open 43.7%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = MIL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

47.8%

ensemble · NYY favored

Elo Static
47.8%
P(MIL win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
48.3%
P(MIL win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
47.3%
P(MIL win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.41 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights are recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+119

Close price

+119

Open no-vig

43.7%

Close no-vig

43.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Player projections

MIL vs NYY.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

117

projections · 59 high confidence

Strikeouts

Jacob MisiorowskiMIL
8.4± 2.7low
Cam SchlittlerNYY
6.6± 2.0low
Will WarrenNYY
6.6± 3.3low

Hits

Cody BellingerNYY
1.4± 1.2high
Ben RiceNYY
1.3± 1.1high
Brice TurangMIL
1.2± 0.9high

Total bases

Aaron JudgeNYY
2.8± 2.6high
Ben RiceNYY
2.8± 2.4high
Cody BellingerNYY
2.7± 3.1high

RBIs

Andrew VaughnMIL
1.3± 2.1low
Cody BellingerNYY
1.1± 1.5high
Aaron JudgeNYY
1.0± 1.2high

Earned runs

Brandon SproatMIL
2.9± 3.3low
Will WarrenNYY
2.0± 2.4low
Ryan WeathersNYY
1.9± 2.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

MIL wins

NYY 0 · MIL 6 (by 6)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked NYY +2pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
NYY	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
MIL	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	6

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

MLBFri, May 8FinalSeriesMIL leads series 1-0VegasNYY -128

Recap · MLB

ilwaukee Brewers held off New York Yankees, 6–0. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

MIL +1.5 cashed (NYY lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 7.5 by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NYY · top performer

Jose Caballero

1.333OPS

3-2

AB-H

RBI

MIL · top performer

Brandon Lockridge

2.000OPS

2-2

AB-H

RBI

MLB · Box score

NYY

26-13

Final

MIL

20-16

NYY

26-13

	Batting
Player	H-AB	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
T. Grisham★CF	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
B. Rice★1B	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
A. Judge★RF	1-4	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
C. Bellinger★LF	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. Chisholm Jr.★2B	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
S. Jones★CF	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	1	2
J. Caballero★SS	2-3	3	0	2	0	0	0	1
A. Wells★C	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
R. McMahon★3B	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
P. Goldschmidt1B	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. Rosario3B	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0

Team	3-30	30	0	3	0	0	2	14

	Pitching
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	HR
M. Fried★SP	6.0	6	5	5	3	5	0
K. CastroRP	2.0	2	1	1	0	2	0
Team	8.0	8	6	6	3	7	0

MIL

20-16

	Batting
Player	H-AB	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
J. Chourio★CF	1-4	4	0	1	1	0	0	2
B. Turang★2B	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
W. Contreras★C	1-4	4	0	1	1	0	0	1
G. Sanchez★C	1-4	4	1	1	0	0	0	1
A. Vaughn★1B	1-3	3	2	1	0	0	1	0
L. Rengifo★3B	0-2	2	1	0	0	0	2	0
B. Lockridge★LF	2-2	2	1	2	2	0	0	0
S. Frelick★RF	1-3	3	0	1	1	0	0	1
J. Ortiz★SS	1-3	3	1	1	1	0	0	0
G. MitchellCF	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team	8-31	31	6	8	6	0	3	7

	Pitching
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	HR
J. Misiorowski★SP	6.0	2	0	0	2	11	0
S. DrohanRP	3.0	1	0	0	0	3	0
Team	9.0	3	0	0	2	14	0

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

Hits

Runs

Errors

Current series

MIL leads series 1-0

May 8

NYY0@

MIL6today

May 9

NYY@

MILupcoming

May 10

NYY@

MILupcoming

Season series

MIL leads series 1-0

May 8

NYY0@

MIL6today

May 9

NYY@

MILupcoming

May 10

NYY@

MILupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

NYY -1.5

1.5pt· 6.2h

Total

7.5

Defensive · -1.0 vs avg

Moneyline

NYY-12856%

MIL+10748%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet NYY -1.5↗SpreadBet NYY -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

+1.5 since open

Total

7.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowNYY ↔ MIL

Biggest swing: 9pp · Bottom 2nd Inning

NYY

J. Caballero

Batter of the game

2-for-3 · 1.333 OPS

M. Fried

Starting pitcher

6.0 IP · 5 K · 5 ER · 6 H · 3 BB

MIL

B. Lockridge

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-2 · 1 R · 2.000 OPS

J. Misiorowski

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 11 K · 0 ER · 2 H · 2 BB

How it ended

MIL beat NYY 6-0.

Win probability

MIL vs NYY

Score progression

0 lead changes

NYY0

MIL6

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

MILBottom 2nd Inning · 0-1

+9pp→ 78% WP

Lockridge · singled to right, Sánchez scored, Rengifo to second, Vaughn to third.

Linescore (innings)

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
NYY	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
MIL	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	—	6

Period scoring

NYY won 0 · MIL won 3

Inn 1

Inn 2

Lockridge 1

Inn 3

Lockridge 1

Inn 4

Inn 5

Inn 6

Inn 7

Contreras 1

Inn 8

Inn 9

NYY

MIL

Play-by-play · 501 plays

period

event

player

T9
· ·
NYY 0·MIL 6
T9
Chisholm Jr. struck out swinging.
· ·
NYY 0·MIL 6
T9
Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging
· ·
NYY 0·MIL 6
T9
Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking
· ·
NYY 0·MIL 6
T9
Judge to second on fielder's indifference.
·
NYY 0·MIL 6
T9
Judge to second on fielder's indifference.
·
NYY 0·MIL 6
T9
Pitch 2 : Ball 1
· ·
NYY 0·MIL 6
T9
Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul
· ·
NYY 0·MIL 6
T9
Shane Drohan pitches to Jazz Chisholm Jr.
· ·
NYY 0·MIL 6
T9
· ·
NYY 0·MIL 6
T9
Bellinger flied out to right.
· ·
NYY 0·MIL 6
T9
Pitch 4 : Ball In Play
· ·
NYY 0·MIL 6
T9
Pitch 3 : Ball 2
· ·
NYY 0·MIL 6
T9
Pitch 2 : Ball 1
· ·
NYY 0·MIL 6
T9
Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging
· ·
NYY 0·MIL 6
T9
Shane Drohan pitches to Cody Bellinger
· ·
NYY 0·MIL 6
T9
·
NYY 0·MIL 6
T9
Judge singled to right.
·
NYY 0·MIL 6
T9
Pitch 1 : Ball In Play
·
NYY 0·MIL 6
T9
Shane Drohan pitches to Aaron Judge
·
NYY 0·MIL 6
T9
·
NYY 0·MIL 6
T9
Rice popped out to shortstop.
·
NYY 0·MIL 6
T9
Pitch 3 : Ball In Play
·
NYY 0·MIL 6
T9
Pitch 2 : Ball 1
·
NYY 0·MIL 6
T9
Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging
·
NYY 0·MIL 6
T9
Shane Drohan pitches to Ben Rice
·
NYY 0·MIL 6
T9
Top of the 9th inning
NYY 0·MIL 6
End 8t
End of the 8th inning
NYY 0·MIL 6
B8
·
NYY 0·MIL 6
B8
Mitchell struck out swinging.
·
NYY 0·MIL 6

Team stats

NYY

Away

Stat

MIL

Home

Runs

Hits

Errors

LOB

Betting line

NYY -1.5·O/U 7.5·NYY -128/MIL +107

DraftKings · via ESPN