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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+4TB
TOR

TOR

16-19

1
5
TB

TB

22-12

Tropicana Field · St. Petersburg, Florida
11,263 attended

Line movement

83 snapshots

TB spread

-1.5

open +1.5 · -3.0

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.0

TB no-vig %

54.2%

open 51.1% · +3.2

+2.0-2.0TB SPREADO/U 8.5O/U 7.5TOTAL58.2%47.1%TB NO-VIG %MODEL 56.2%May 3, 9 PMMay 28, 3 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = TB favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TB wins

TOR 1 · TB 5 (by 4)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked TB +7pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
TOR0010000001
TB300002005

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+3.15

CLV pp · steam

Open price

-115

Close price

-131

Open no-vig

51.1%

Close no-vig

54.2%

Market steamed in our direction · Graded: hit

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 5, 26sim 98
    143
    30(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 8, 26sim 97
    246
    25(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 9, 26sim 97
    242
    25(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 24, 26sim 97
    236
    8(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 29, 26sim 96
    296
    8(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 10, 26sim 95
    242
    25(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Mon, May 4·Final/SeriesTB wins series 3-0/VegasTB -131

Recap · MLB

Tampa Bay Rays held off Toronto Blue Jays, 5–1.

TB -1.5 cashed (won by 4). Total stayed UNDER 8.0 by 2.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

TOR · top performer

TOR
Yohendrick Pinango

Yohendrick Pinango

LF

1.200OPS

5-3

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

TB · top performer

TB
Ryan Vilade

Ryan Vilade

RF

2.500OPS

2-1

AB-H

1

R

3

RBI

MLB · Toronto Blue Jays at Tampa Bay Rays · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
TOR16-19
1
5
TB22-12
TOR16-19·TB22-12
TOR

TOR

16-19

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
Y. PinangoY. Pinango★LF
3-55130000
SPRINT2622
K. OkamotoK. Okamoto★3B
1-44010012
SPRINT26.123
V. Guerrero Jr.V. Guerrero Jr.★1B
1-44011001
SPRINT26.123
J. SanchezJ. Sanchez★RF
1-44010000
SPRINT25.818
E. ClementE. Clement★2B
1-44010000
SPRINT27.354
D. VarshoD. Varsho★CF
0-44000003
M. StrawM. Straw★RF
1-33010010
A. GimenezA. Gimenez★SS
1-44010000
B. ValenzuelaB. Valenzuela★C
1-44010002
Team10-36361101028
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
E. LauerE. Lauer★SP
4.1533121
S. MilesS. MilesRP
1.1322010
M. FluhartyM. FluhartyRP
0.1100010
T. NanceT. NanceRP
1.0100010
J. MantiplyJ. MantiplyRP
1.0100000
Team8.01155151
TB

TB

22-12

5
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
C. SimpsonC. Simpson★LF
1-44110001
SPRINT29.496
J. CamineroJ. Caminero★3B
0-33100011
R. ViladeR. Vilade★RF
1-22113100
SPRINT28.483
Y. DiazY. Diaz★DH
0-44000000
J. ArandaJ. Aranda★1B
3-44130001
SPRINT25.29
J. DeLucaJ. DeLuca★RF
1-44010001
B. WilliamsonB. Williamson★2B
2-44120000
SPRINT28.381
N. FortesN. Fortes★C
1-33010001
T. WallsT. Walls★SS
1-33012000
SPRINT27.765
C. MullinsC. MullinsCF
1-22010000
Team11-33335115115
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
N. MartinezN. Martinez★SP
5.0511140
I. SeymourI. SeymourRP
1.1200120
K. KellyK. KellyRP
0.2000010
C. SulserC. SulserRP
1.0000010
C. LeguminaC. LeguminaRP
0.2300000
B. BakerB. BakerRP
0.1000000
Team9.01011280

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

TOR

  • E. Lauer
    61 pitches·26% CSW
    • FF
      39%·90.3 mph·19% whiff
    • FC
      20%·86.3 mph·20% whiff
    • SL
      18%·82.3 mph·33% whiff
    • CH
      15%·83.5 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      8%·75.0 mph·0% whiff
  • S. Miles
    27 pitches·33% CSW
    • CU
      33%·80.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      33%·95.6 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      26%·95.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      7%·85.9 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Mantiply
    17 pitches·18% CSW
    • CH
      47%·81.2 mph·20% whiff
    • SI
      41%·89.5 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      12%·81.7 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Nance
    13 pitches·31% CSW
    • SL
      46%·88.5 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      31%·85.7 mph·67% whiff
    • SI
      23%·94.4 mph·0% whiff
  • M. Fluharty
    6 pitches·50% CSW
    • FC
      50%·90.9 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      50%·81.2 mph·50% whiff

TB

  • N. Martinez
    71 pitches·21% CSW
    • SI
      32%·91.1 mph·8% whiff
    • CH
      25%·78.7 mph·21% whiff
    • FC
      21%·88.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      11%·90.9 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      6%·79.1 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      4%·85.4 mph·0% whiff
  • I. Seymour
    28 pitches·25% CSW
    • CH
      39%·84.4 mph·17% whiff
    • SI
      21%·90.7 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      21%·81.9 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      14%·92.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      4%·84.1 mph·— whiff
  • C. Legumina
    17 pitches·24% CSW
    • FF
      59%·93.5 mph·29% whiff
    • SI
      24%·93.3 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      18%·87.6 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Sulser
    10 pitches·30% CSW
    • FF
      60%·92.8 mph·33% whiff
    • CH
      40%·84.4 mph·50% whiff
  • K. Kelly
    7 pitches·29% CSW
    • SI
      71%·91.3 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      14%·86.1 mph·100% whiff
    • ST
      14%·76.6 mph·— whiff
  • B. Baker
    3 pitches·33% CSW
    • CH
      67%·83.9 mph·— whiff
    • FF
      33%·96.4 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

10

Hits

11

1

Runs

5

0

Errors

0

Current series

TB wins series 3-0

May 4TORTOR1@TBTB5today
May 5TORTOR3@TBTB4
May 6TORTOR0@TBTB3

Season series

TB leads series 1-0

May 4TORTOR1@TBTB5today
May 5TORTOR3@TBTB4
May 6TORTOR0@TBTB3
May 11TBTB8@TORTOR5
May 12TBTB7@TORTOR6
May 13TBTB3@TORTOR5
Jul 20TBTB@TORTORupcoming
Jul 21TBTB@TORTORupcoming
Jul 22TBTB@TORTORupcoming
Jul 23TBTB@TORTORupcoming
Aug 18TORTOR@TBTBupcoming
Aug 19TORTOR@TBTBupcoming
Aug 20TORTOR@TBTBupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

TB -1.5

Total

8.0

Defensive · -0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

TORTOR+10948%
TBTB-13157%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet TB -1.5↗SpreadBet TB -1.5↗

Line movement · 83 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

8.0

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowTOR ↔ TB

Biggest swing: 15pp · Bottom 1st Inning

TORTOR
Y. Pinango

Y. Pinango

LF

Batter of the game

3-for-5 · 1 R · 1.200 OPS

E. Lauer

E. Lauer

SP

Starting pitcher

4.1 IP · 2 K · 3 ER · 5 H · 1 BB

TBTB
R. Vilade

R. Vilade

RF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-2 · 1 HR · 2.500 OPS

N. Martinez

N. Martinez

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 4 K · 1 ER · 5 H · 1 BB

How it ended

TB beat TOR 5-1.

Win probability

TB vs TOR

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
TBBottom 1st Inning · 0-3
+15pp→ 86% WP

Vilade · homered to left center (413 feet), Simpson scored and Caminero scored.

TORTop 3rd Inning · 1-3
+7pp→ 26% WP

Guerrero Jr. · singled to left, Pinango scored, Okamoto to second.

TBBottom 6th Inning · 1-5
+8pp→ 96% WP

Walls · singled to center, Aranda scored and Williamson scored, Fortes to second.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
TOR0010000001
TB30000200—5

Period scoring

TOR won 1 · TB won 2

0
3

Inn 1

Vilade 3

0
0

Inn 2

1
0

Inn 3

Jr. 1

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
2

Inn 6

Walls 2

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

TOR
TB

Play-by-play · 523 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    TOR 1·TB 5

  2. T9

    Okamoto flied out to right.

    · ·

    TOR 1·TB 5

    +1pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    TOR 1·TB 5

  4. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    TOR 1·TB 5

  5. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    TOR 1·TB 5

  6. T9

    Bryan Baker pitches to Kazuma Okamoto

    · ·

    TOR 1·TB 5

  7. T9

    Baker relieved Legumina

    ·

    TOR 1·TB 5

  8. T9

    · ·

    TOR 1·TB 5

  9. T9

    Pinango singled to left, Valenzuela to third.

    · ·

    TOR 1·TB 5

    −0.8pp

  10. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    TOR 1·TB 5

  11. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    TOR 1·TB 5

  12. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    TOR 1·TB 5

  13. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    TOR 1·TB 5

  14. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    TOR 1·TB 5

  15. T9

    Casey Legumina pitches to Yohendrick Pinango

    · ·

    TOR 1·TB 5

  16. T9

    ·

    TOR 1·TB 5

  17. T9

    Valenzuela singled to right.

    ·

    TOR 1·TB 5

  18. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    ·

    TOR 1·TB 5

  19. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    TOR 1·TB 5

  20. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    TOR 1·TB 5

  21. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    TOR 1·TB 5

  22. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    TOR 1·TB 5

  23. T9

    Casey Legumina pitches to Brandon Valenzuela

    ·

    TOR 1·TB 5

  24. T9

    ·

    TOR 1·TB 5

  25. T9

    Giménez grounded into double play, second to shortstop to first, Straw out at second.

    · ·

    TOR 1·TB 5

    +3pp

  26. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    TOR 1·TB 5

  27. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    TOR 1·TB 5

  28. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    TOR 1·TB 5

  29. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    TOR 1·TB 5

  30. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    TOR 1·TB 5

Team stats

TOR

Away

Stat

TB

Home

1

Runs

5

10

Hits

11

0

Errors

0

11

TB

14

0

HR

1

2

BB

1

8

K

5

16

LOB

10

Betting line

TB -1.5·O/U 8·TOR +109/TB -131

DraftKings · via ESPN

Player projections

TB vs TOR.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

123

projections · 85 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Trey YesavageTOR
    5.8± 2.2low
  • Drew RasmussenTB
    5.1± 2.8low
  • Shane McClanahanTB
    5.0± 1.8low

Hits

  • Yandy DiazTB
    1.3± 1.2high
  • Nathan LukesTOR
    1.3± 1.1high
  • Jonathan ArandaTB
    1.2± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Yandy DiazTB
    2.7± 2.8high
  • Ernie ClementTOR
    2.1± 2.0high
  • Jonathan ArandaTB
    2.0± 2.0high

RBIs

  • Yandy DiazTB
    0.9± 1.5high
  • Jonathan ArandaTB
    0.8± 0.8high
  • Victor Mesa Jr.TB
    0.7± 1.6low

Earned runs

  • Steven MatzTB
    2.6± 2.4low
  • Kevin GausmanTOR
    2.2± 2.3low
  • Patrick CorbinTOR
    2.0± 1.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

58.6%

ensemble · TB favored

  • Elo Static

    56.5%

    P(TB win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    61.0%

    P(TB win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    57.3%

    P(TB win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.95 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

87% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort
  • Myles StrawTOR · RF
    SPRINT29.597
  • Chandler SimpsonTB · LF
    SPRINT29.496
  • Jonny DeLucaTB · RF
    SPRINT2993
  • Ryan ViladeTB · RF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Ben WilliamsonTB · 2B
    SPRINT28.381