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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+4ARI
ARI

ARI

16-13

6
2
MIL

MIL

15-14

American Family Field · Milwaukee, Wisconsin
24,540 attended

Line movement

44 snapshots

MIL spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.5

MIL no-vig %

55.3%

open 55.3%

-1.0-2.0MIL SPREADO/U 9.0O/U 8.0TOTAL59.3%51.3%MIL NO-VIG %MODEL 55.5%May 3, 7 PMMay 30, 6 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = MIL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

ARI wins

ARI 6 · MIL 2 (by 4)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked MIL +6pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
ARI0004000026
MIL1010000002

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →
MLB·Wed, Apr 29·Final/SeriesMIL wins series 2-1/VegasMIL -137

Recap · MLB

Arizona Diamondbacks went into Milwaukee Brewers and beat them, 6–2.

ARI +1.5 cashed (MIL lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 8.5 by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

ARI · top performer

ARI
Nolan Arenado

Nolan Arenado

3B

1.833OPS

3-1

AB-H

1

R

3

RBI

MIL · top performer

MIL
Brice Turang

Brice Turang

2B

1.000OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · Arizona Diamondbacks at Milwaukee Brewers · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
ARI16-13
6
2
MIL15-14
ARI16-13·MIL15-14
ARI

ARI

16-13

6
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
G. PerdomoG. Perdomo★SS
0-22000031
K. MarteK. Marte★2B
2-55121101
SPRINT26.225
C. CarrollC. Carroll★RF
2-55121103
SPRINT29.496
AA. Del Castillo★DH
1-55111102
SPRINT26.326
I. VargasI. Vargas★1B
2-55120001
SPRINT26.941
L. Gurriel Jr.L. Gurriel Jr.★LF
2-44120000
N. ArenadoN. Arenado★3B
1-33113110
SPRINT25.29
J. FernandezJ. Fernandez★DH
1-44010001
A. ThomasA. Thomas★CF
0-44000001
Team11-373761164410
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
E. RodriguezE. Rodriguez★SP
4.2522440
K. GinkelK. GinkelRP
1.1100030
J. MorilloJ. MorilloRP
1.0000010
T. ClarkeT. ClarkeRP
1.0000010
P. SewaldP. SewaldRP
1.0000010
Team9.06224100
MIL

MIL

15-14

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
B. LockridgeB. Lockridge★LF
1-33110012
SPRINT29.294
B. TurangB. Turang★2B
2-44121000
SPRINT28.586
W. ContrerasW. Contreras★C
0-44000001
J. BauersJ. Bauers★1B
1-44011002
SPRINT2744
G. SanchezG. Sanchez★DH
0-22000020
L. RengifoL. Rengifo★3B
2-44020000
SPRINT27.148
G. JonesG. Jones★LF
0-22000001
B. PerkinsB. Perkins★CF
0-22000000
J. OrtizJ. Ortiz★SS
0-11000010
T. BlackT. BlackDH
0-11000001
SPRINT2872
G. MitchellG. MitchellCF
0-22000002
S. FrelickS. FrelickRF
0-22000000
D. HamiltonD. HamiltonSS
0-22000001
Team6-33332620410
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
B. SproatB. Sproat★SP
4.1644252
D. HallD. HallRP
2.1100130
BB. FitzpatrickRP
1.1200100
G. AndersonG. AndersonRP
1.0222022
Team9.011664104

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

ARI

  • E. Rodriguez
    87 pitches·22% CSW
    • FF
      40%·91.4 mph·13% whiff
    • CH
      22%·84.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      21%·87.5 mph·14% whiff
    • CU
      10%·78.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      7%·90.0 mph·0% whiff
  • K. Ginkel
    26 pitches·42% CSW
    • FF
      54%·94.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      46%·84.7 mph·100% whiff
  • J. Morillo
    14 pitches·50% CSW
    • FF
      50%·99.0 mph·33% whiff
    • CH
      43%·92.3 mph·75% whiff
    • SL
      7%·85.2 mph·— whiff
  • T. Clarke
    14 pitches·36% CSW
    • SI
      36%·94.7 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      29%·90.0 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      29%·88.6 mph·100% whiff
    • FC
      7%·93.6 mph·0% whiff
  • P. Sewald
    13 pitches·46% CSW
    • FF
      62%·91.3 mph·33% whiff
    • ST
      38%·83.2 mph·50% whiff

MIL

  • B. Sproat
    82 pitches·27% CSW
    • FC
      38%·93.0 mph·8% whiff
    • FF
      21%·97.1 mph·43% whiff
    • CU
      20%·83.2 mph·29% whiff
    • SI
      12%·95.7 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      6%·86.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      4%·91.8 mph·0% whiff
  • D. Hall
    42 pitches·33% CSW
    • SI
      43%·95.0 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      26%·86.1 mph·67% whiff
    • CU
      10%·80.7 mph·25% whiff
    • FF
      7%·94.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      7%·85.9 mph·50% whiff
    • ST
      7%·84.8 mph·100% whiff
  • G. Anderson
    25 pitches·20% CSW
    • FF
      44%·93.7 mph·17% whiff
    • ST
      32%·80.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      20%·93.0 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      4%·86.4 mph·0% whiff
  • B. Fitzpatrick
    24 pitches·21% CSW
    • SL
      46%·87.9 mph·43% whiff
    • CH
      25%·83.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      17%·93.5 mph·100% whiff
    • ST
      8%·79.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      4%·94.9 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

11

Hits

6

6

Runs

2

0

Errors

1

Current series

MIL wins series 2-1

Apr 28ARIARI2@MILMIL13
Apr 29ARIARI6@MILMIL2today
Apr 30ARIARI1@MILMIL13

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Apr 28ARIARI2@MILMIL13
Apr 29ARIARI6@MILMIL2today
Apr 30ARIARI1@MILMIL13
Jul 4MILMIL@ARIARIupcoming
Jul 5MILMIL@ARIARIupcoming
Jul 5MILMIL@ARIARIupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

MIL -1.5

Total

8.5

Standard · 0.0 vs avg

Moneyline

ARIARI+11447%
MILMIL-13758%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet MIL -1.5↗SpreadBet MIL -1.5↗

Line movement · 44 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

8.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowARI ↔ MIL

Biggest swing: 30pp · Top 4th Inning

ARIARI
N. Arenado

N. Arenado

3B

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1.833 OPS

E. Rodriguez

E. Rodriguez

SP

Starting pitcher

4.2 IP · 4 K · 2 ER · 5 H · 4 BB

MILMIL
B. Turang

B. Turang

2B

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 R · 1.000 OPS

B. Sproat

B. Sproat

SP

Starting pitcher

4.1 IP · 5 K · 4 ER · 6 H · 2 BB

How it ended

ARI beat MIL 6-2. Arenado's play in the top 4th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (30pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

MIL vs ARI

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
MILBottom 1st Inning · 0-1
+9pp→ 69% WP

Bauers · doubled to center, Turang scored.

ARITop 4th Inning · 4-2
+30pp→ 66% WP

Arenado · homered to left center (411 feet), Vargas scored and Gurriel Jr. scored.

ARITop 5th Inning · 4-2
+13pp→ 73% WP

Perdomo · walked.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
ARI0004000026
MIL1010000002

Period scoring

ARI won 2 · MIL won 2

0
1

Inn 1

Bauers 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
1

Inn 3

Turang 1

4
0

Inn 4

Arenado 3

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

2
0

Inn 9

Marte 1

ARI
MIL

Play-by-play · 614 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    ARI 6·MIL 2

  2. B9

    ·

    ARI 6·MIL 2

  3. B9

    Black struck out swinging.

    ·

    ARI 6·MIL 2

  4. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    ARI 6·MIL 2

  5. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    ARI 6·MIL 2

  6. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    ARI 6·MIL 2

  7. B9

    Paul Sewald pitches to Tyler Black

    ·

    ARI 6·MIL 2

  8. B9

    Black hit for Lockridge

    ·

    ARI 6·MIL 2

  9. B9

    ·

    ARI 6·MIL 2

  10. B9

    Hamilton flied out to center.

    ·

    ARI 6·MIL 2

  11. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    ARI 6·MIL 2

  12. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    ARI 6·MIL 2

  13. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    ARI 6·MIL 2

  14. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    ARI 6·MIL 2

  15. B9

    Paul Sewald pitches to David Hamilton

    ·

    ARI 6·MIL 2

  16. B9

    ·

    ARI 6·MIL 2

  17. B9

    Frelick lined out to shortstop.

    ·

    ARI 6·MIL 2

    −1pp

  18. B9

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    ·

    ARI 6·MIL 2

  19. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 2

    ·

    ARI 6·MIL 2

  20. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    ARI 6·MIL 2

  21. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    ARI 6·MIL 2

  22. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    ARI 6·MIL 2

  23. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    ARI 6·MIL 2

  24. B9

    Paul Sewald pitches to Sal Frelick

    ·

    ARI 6·MIL 2

  25. B9

    Sewald relieved Clarke

    ·

    ARI 6·MIL 2

  26. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    ARI 6·MIL 2

  27. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    ARI 6·MIL 2

  28. T9

    ·

    ARI 6·MIL 2

  29. T9

    Vargas struck out looking.

    ·

    ARI 6·MIL 2

  30. T9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Looking

    ·

    ARI 6·MIL 2

Team stats

ARI

Away

Stat

MIL

Home

6

Runs

2

11

Hits

6

0

Errors

1

23

TB

10

4

HR

0

4

BB

4

10

K

10

14

LOB

13

Betting line

MIL -1.5·O/U 8.5·ARI +114/MIL -137

DraftKings · via ESPN

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort
  • Corbin CarrollARI · RF
    SPRINT29.496
  • Brandon LockridgeMIL · LF
    SPRINT29.294
  • Jorge BarrosaARI · CF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Brice TurangMIL · 2B
    SPRINT28.586
  • Tyler BlackMIL · DH
    SPRINT2872

Player projections

MIL vs ARI.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 91 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Jacob MisiorowskiMIL
    9.0± 2.7low
  • Kyle HarrisonMIL
    6.1± 4.9low
  • Michael SorokaARI
    5.2± 3.5low

Hits

  • Ketel MarteARI
    1.6± 1.3high
  • William ContrerasMIL
    1.4± 1.1high
  • Corbin CarrollARI
    1.3± 1.2high

Total bases

  • Ketel MarteARI
    3.0± 2.2high
  • Corbin CarrollARI
    2.2± 2.3high
  • Christian YelichMIL
    2.0± 2.4high

RBIs

  • Ketel MarteARI
    1.1± 1.4high
  • Gabriel MorenoARI
    0.8± 1.1high
  • Jake BauersMIL
    0.8± 1.2high

Earned runs

  • Merrill KellyARI
    3.5± 3.5low
  • Zac GallenARI
    2.9± 2.5low
  • Brandon SproatMIL
    2.9± 2.7low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

53.3%

ensemble · MIL favored

  • Elo Static

    56.0%

    P(MIL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    51.8%

    P(MIL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    55.4%

    P(MIL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.85 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

88% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 25, 26sim 99
    236
    8(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 29, 26sim 97
    21
    14(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 12, 26sim 96
    294
    22(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 23, 26sim 96
    248
    17(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 11, 26sim 96
    293
    22(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 5, 26sim 96
    143
    30(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs