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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+6PIT
PIT

PIT

15-11

6
0
MIL

MIL

13-12

American Family Field · Milwaukee, Wisconsin
33,339 attended

Line movement

37 snapshots

MIL spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 7.0

open O/U 7.0

MIL no-vig %

49.6%

open 49.6%

+2.0+1.0MIL SPREADO/U 7.5O/U 6.5TOTAL53.6%45.6%MIL NO-VIG %May 3, 7 PMMay 24, 1 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = MIL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

PIT wins

PIT 6 · MIL 0 (by 6)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked MIL +8pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
PIT0011110206
MIL0000000000

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 20, 26sim 98
    221
    16(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 6, 26sim 98
    74
    5(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 8, 26sim 98
    246
    25(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 9, 26sim 97
    242
    25(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 26, 26sim 97
    230
    8(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 4, 26sim 97
    141
    30(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-108

Close price

-108

Open no-vig

49.6%

Close no-vig

49.6%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

MLB·Fri, Apr 24·Final/SeriesPIT wins series 2-1/VegasPIT -112

Recap · MLB

Pittsburgh Pirates went into Milwaukee Brewers and beat them, 6–0. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

PIT -1.5 cashed (won by 6). Total stayed UNDER 7.0 by 1.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

PIT · top performer

PIT
Konnor Griffin

Konnor Griffin

SS

2.250OPS

4-3

AB-H

1

R

3

RBI

MIL · top performer

MIL
Jake Bauers

Jake Bauers

1B

0.667OPS

3-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MLB · Pittsburgh Pirates at Milwaukee Brewers · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
PIT15-11
6
0
MIL13-12
PIT15-11·MIL13-12
PIT

PIT

15-11

6
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
O. CruzO. Cruz★CF
0-55001001
B. LoweB. Lowe★2B
1-55110001
SPRINT27.148
B. ReynoldsB. Reynolds★LF
0-33000022
M. OzunaM. Ozuna★DH
0-55000001
R. O'HearnR. O'Hearn★RF
2-44220000
SPRINT26.735
N. GonzalesN. Gonzales★3B
1-44111000
SPRINT28.586
S. HorwitzS. Horwitz★1B
1-33111010
SPRINT24.85
K. GriffinK. Griffin★SS
3-44133100
SPRINT29.899
H. DavisH. Davis★C
1-44010000
Team9-3737696135
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
P. SkenesP. Skenes★SP
7.0100070
M. MontgomeryM. MontgomeryRP
1.0000010
I. MattsonI. MattsonRP
1.0000110
Team9.0100190
MIL

MIL

13-12

0
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
B. TurangB. Turang★2B
0-33000012
SPRINT28.586
W. ContrerasW. Contreras★C
0-44000000
SPRINT24.96
J. BauersJ. Bauers★1B
1-33010001
SPRINT2744
T. BlackT. Black★DH
0-33000001
SPRINT2872
L. RengifoL. Rengifo★3B
0-33000000
SPRINT27.148
G. MitchellG. Mitchell★CF
0-22000002
S. FrelickS. Frelick★RF
0-22000000
B. LockridgeB. Lockridge★LF
0-33000001
D. HamiltonD. Hamilton★SS
0-22000001
B. PerkinsB. PerkinsCF
0-11000001
G. JonesG. JonesLF
0-11000000
J. OrtizJ. OrtizSS
0-11000000
Team1-2828010019
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
B. WoodruffB. Woodruff★SP
5.0533231
SS. DrohanRP
4.0431120
Team9.0964351

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

PIT

  • P. Skenes
    93 pitches·29% CSW
    • FF
      41%·97.9 mph·23% whiff
    • FS
      29%·93.8 mph·31% whiff
    • SI
      15%·97.2 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      12%·83.5 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      3%·90.4 mph·— whiff
  • I. Mattson
    14 pitches·29% CSW
    • FF
      64%·94.1 mph·33% whiff
    • CU
      21%·84.3 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      7%·86.4 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      7%·85.1 mph·0% whiff
  • M. Montgomery
    9 pitches·33% CSW
    • FF
      67%·98.2 mph·33% whiff
    • CH
      22%·92.3 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      11%·86.9 mph·— whiff

MIL

  • B. Woodruff
    71 pitches·24% CSW
    • FF
      59%·92.8 mph·22% whiff
    • SI
      17%·93.5 mph·14% whiff
    • CH
      14%·85.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      6%·90.2 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      4%·78.5 mph·50% whiff
  • S. Drohan
    71 pitches·21% CSW
    • FF
      28%·94.6 mph·8% whiff
    • FC
      21%·89.4 mph·27% whiff
    • CU
      20%·79.3 mph·29% whiff
    • SL
      17%·85.2 mph·13% whiff
    • CH
      7%·85.3 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      7%·93.8 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

9

Hits

1

6

Runs

0

0

Errors

2

Current series

PIT wins series 2-1

Apr 24PITPIT6@MILMIL0today
Apr 25PITPIT6@MILMIL3
Apr 26PITPIT0@MILMIL5

Season series

PIT leads series 1-0

Apr 24PITPIT6@MILMIL0today
Apr 25PITPIT6@MILMIL3
Apr 26PITPIT0@MILMIL5
Jul 10MILMIL@PITPITupcoming
Jul 11MILMIL@PITPITupcoming
Jul 12MILMIL@PITPITupcoming
Aug 3PITPIT@MILMILupcoming
Aug 4PITPIT@MILMILupcoming
Aug 5PITPIT@MILMILupcoming
Aug 6PITPIT@MILMILupcoming
Sep 15MILMIL@PITPITupcoming
Sep 16MILMIL@PITPITupcoming
Sep 17MILMIL@PITPITupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

PIT -1.5

Total

7.0

Defensive · -1.5 vs avg

Moneyline

PITPIT-11253%
MILMIL-10852%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet PIT -1.5↗SpreadBet PIT -1.5↗

Line movement · 37 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

7.0

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowPIT ↔ MIL

Biggest swing: 14pp · Top 3rd Inning

PITPIT
K. Griffin

K. Griffin

SS

Batter of the gamePerfect day

3-for-4 · 1 HR · 2.250 OPS

P. Skenes

P. Skenes

SP

Starting pitcherGem

7.0 IP · 7 K · 0 ER · 1 H

MILMIL
J. Bauers

J. Bauers

1B

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 0.667 OPS

B. Woodruff

B. Woodruff

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 3 K · 3 ER · 5 H · 2 BB

How it ended

PIT beat MIL 6-0.

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

MIL vs PIT

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
PITTop 3rd Inning · 1-0
+14pp→ 57% WP

Griffin · homered to right center (386 feet).

PITTop 4th Inning · 1-0
+7pp→ 67% WP

Lowe · doubled to right.

PITBottom 4th Inning · 2-0
+12pp→ 71% WP

Turang · struck out swinging.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
PIT0011110206
MIL0000000000

Period scoring

PIT won 5 · MIL won 0

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

1
0

Inn 3

Griffin 1

1
0

Inn 4

Gonzales 1

1
0

Inn 5

Cruz 1

1
0

Inn 6

Horwitz 1

0
0

Inn 7

2
0

Inn 8

Griffin 2

0
0

Inn 9

PIT
MIL

Play-by-play · 516 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    PIT 6·MIL 0

  2. B9

    · ·

    PIT 6·MIL 0

  3. B9

    Contreras flied out to center.

    · ·

    PIT 6·MIL 0

  4. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    PIT 6·MIL 0

  5. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    PIT 6·MIL 0

  6. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    PIT 6·MIL 0

  7. B9

    Isaac Mattson pitches to William Contreras

    · ·

    PIT 6·MIL 0

  8. B9

    ·

    PIT 6·MIL 0

  9. B9

    Turang walked.

    ·

    PIT 6·MIL 0

  10. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 4

    ·

    PIT 6·MIL 0

  11. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 3

    ·

    PIT 6·MIL 0

  12. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    PIT 6·MIL 0

  13. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    PIT 6·MIL 0

  14. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    PIT 6·MIL 0

  15. B9

    Isaac Mattson pitches to Brice Turang

    ·

    PIT 6·MIL 0

  16. B9

    ·

    PIT 6·MIL 0

  17. B9

    Ortiz popped out to first.

    ·

    PIT 6·MIL 0

  18. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    PIT 6·MIL 0

  19. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    PIT 6·MIL 0

  20. B9

    Isaac Mattson pitches to Joey Ortiz

    ·

    PIT 6·MIL 0

  21. B9

    ·

    PIT 6·MIL 0

  22. B9

    Lockridge struck out swinging.

    ·

    PIT 6·MIL 0

  23. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    PIT 6·MIL 0

  24. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    PIT 6·MIL 0

  25. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    PIT 6·MIL 0

  26. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    PIT 6·MIL 0

  27. B9

    Isaac Mattson pitches to Brandon Lockridge

    ·

    PIT 6·MIL 0

  28. B9

    Mattson relieved Montgomery

    ·

    PIT 6·MIL 0

  29. B9

    Mangum in left field.

    PIT 6·MIL 0

  30. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    PIT 6·MIL 0

Team stats

PIT

Away

Stat

MIL

Home

6

Runs

0

9

Hits

1

0

Errors

2

14

TB

1

1

HR

0

3

BB

1

5

K

9

20

LOB

2

Betting line

PIT -1.5·O/U 7·PIT -112/MIL -108

DraftKings · via ESPN

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort
  • Garrett MitchellMIL · CF
    SPRINT29.798
  • Jake MangumPIT · LF
    SPRINT2993
  • Sal FrelickMIL · RF
    SPRINT28.790
  • Nick GonzalesPIT · 3B
    SPRINT28.586
  • Brice TurangMIL · 2B
    SPRINT28.586

Player projections

MIL vs PIT.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 86 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Jacob MisiorowskiMIL
    9.0± 2.7low
  • Braxton AshcraftPIT
    6.6± 2.1low
  • Paul SkenesPIT
    6.6± 3.3low

Hits

  • William ContrerasMIL
    1.4± 1.1high
  • Bryan ReynoldsPIT
    1.2± 0.9high
  • Jake BauersMIL
    1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Bryan ReynoldsPIT
    2.1± 2.0high
  • Christian YelichMIL
    2.0± 2.4high
  • Brandon LowePIT
    2.0± 1.7high

RBIs

  • Jake BauersMIL
    0.8± 1.2high
  • Bryan ReynoldsPIT
    0.8± 0.9high
  • Christian YelichMIL
    0.6± 0.8high

Earned runs

  • Brandon SproatMIL
    2.9± 2.7low
  • Bubba ChandlerPIT
    2.7± 2.3low
  • Mitch KellerPIT
    2.5± 2.6low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

57.8%

ensemble · MIL favored

  • Elo Static

    57.9%

    P(MIL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    57.0%

    P(MIL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    58.1%

    P(MIL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.48 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.