Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in TOR at TB?

The model favors TB, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Toronto Blue Jays vs Tampa Bay Rays: Final Score & Box Score — May 5, 2026

FINAL+1TB

TOR

16-20

23-12

Tropicana Field · St. Petersburg, Florida

11,217 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

TB spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 7.0

open O/U 7.0

TB no-vig %

54.2%

open 53.2% · +1.0

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = TB favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Logged before first pitch · graded in public

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

56.7%

ensemble · TB favored

Elo Static
56.1%
P(TB win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
57.9%
P(TB win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
55.7%
P(TB win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.95 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

94% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+1.02

CLV pp

Open price

-126

Close price

-131

Open no-vig

53.2%

Close no-vig

54.2%

Market came to the model · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in TOR at TB?: The model favors TB, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Player projections

TB vs TOR.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 100 high confidence

Strikeouts

Dylan CeaseTOR
8.4± 3.0low
Drew RasmussenTB
6.2± 4.0low
Kevin GausmanTOR
5.3± 2.4medium

Hits

Yandy DiazTB
1.3± 1.1high
Jonathan ArandaTB
1.1± 0.8high
Junior CamineroTB
1.1± 1.0high

Total bases

Brandon ValenzuelaTOR
2.0± 1.8high
George SpringerTOR
1.9± 2.0high
Kazuma OkamotoTOR
1.8± 1.8high

RBIs

Brandon ValenzuelaTOR
0.7± 0.7high
Kazuma OkamotoTOR
0.7± 1.0high
Jonathan ArandaTB
0.6± 1.3high

Earned runs

Kevin GausmanTOR
2.8± 2.7medium
Simeon Woods RichardsonTOR
2.8± 3.3low
Patrick CorbinTOR
2.5± 1.7low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

TOR

league avg

.702

OPS

.719

▶

.717

.311

OBP

.319

▶

.334

4.10

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.42

4.13

Team ERA

4.19

▶

3.91

1.31

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.23

8.9

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.0

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TB wins

TOR 3 · TB 4 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked TB +6pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
TOR	1	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	3
TB	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	2	4

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
G. SpringerDH	.200	4	0	0	0	0	1	0
Y. PinangoLF	.455	4	0	1	1	0	0	1
K. Okamoto3B	.244	4	1	2	1	1	0	2
J. SanchezRF	.241	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
L. Sosa2B	.267	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
D. VarshoCF	.237	3	1	1	0	0	1	0
E. Clement2B	.289	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
A. GimenezSS	.267	4	1	2	1	0	0	1
B. ValenzuelaC	.200	2	0	0	0	0	1	1
V. Guerrero Jr.1B	.328	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. StrawRF	.291	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		34	3	8	3	1	3	7

Player

.200

.455

.244

.241

.267

.237

.289

.267

.200

.328

.291

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
K. GausmanSP	6.0	6	2	2	1	3	96
J. HoffmanRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	17
T. RogersRP	0.1	4	2	2	0	0	22
L. VarlandRP	0.2	0	0	0	0	1	7
Team	8.0	11	4	4	1	5	142

Player

6.0

1.0

0.1

0.2

Team

8.0

142

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. SimpsonLF	.304	4	1	2	0	0	0	0
J. Caminero3B	.260	3	0	1	0	0	1	0
J. Aranda1B	.276	4	0	2	1	0	0	0
Y. DiazDH	.320	4	1	1	1	0	0	0
J. FraleyRF	.254	4	1	2	0	0	0	1
B. Williamson2B	.266	4	0	2	1	0	0	1
C. MullinsCF	.131	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
H. FeducciaC	.278	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
R. Palacios2B	.192	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
N. FortesC	.264	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
T. WallsSS	.197	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
J. DeLucaRF	.274	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
R. ViladeRF	.286	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		33	4	11	3	0	1	5

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. RasmussenSP	6.0	7	3	3	1	5	85
H. BiggeRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	2	18
C. LeguminaRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	0	9
C. SulserRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	12
Team	9.0	8	3	3	3	7	124

Team

TOR

—

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

TB vs TOR.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Closing-line value.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

TB vs TOR.

3 sub-models, blended.