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Live · 5
  • MLBBot 1
    ATH 0@PHI 0
    +5.4ppmedium
  • MLBBot 1
    MIN 0@WSH 0
    +5.3ppmedium
  • MLBEnd 1
    TOR 1@TB 0
    -25.6ppmedium
  • MLBBot 1
    BOS 3@DET 1
    -32.8ppmedium
  • MLBTop 1
    BAL 3@MIA 0
    -48.7pplow
THE ONE Analytics
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END 1ST+1TOR↑
TOR

TOR

16-19

1
0
TB

TB

22-12

Live · model leanEnd 1stPolls every 30s

54.2%

TOR wins · current

Pre-game: 54.3% TB

TOR 1 · 0 TB

TOR +1

Tropicana Field · St. Petersburg, Florida

Probable starters

The mound matchup

Combined ERA 5.74

K. Gausman

2-2 · 3.10 ERA

vs

D. Rasmussen

2-1 · 2.64 ERA

Line movement

200 snapshots

TB spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 7.0

open O/U 7.0

TB no-vig %

54.2%

open 53.2% · +1.0

+2.0-2.0TB SPREADO/U 8.0O/U 6.5TOTAL58.2%49.2%TB NO-VIG %MODEL 54.3%May 4, 6 PMMay 5, 9 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = TB favored. Pure CLV joins once moneyline closing-line ingest catches up across leagues.

The One modelLean
● Live
TOR1

TOR

Blue Jays

16-19

vs54%TB

TB★

Rays

22-12

TB0
TOR 46%win prob54% TB
TB 1524 · TOR 1518Box score→

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

56%Last 7 · 59-46
56%Last 30 · 232-179
Receipts →

Live · model intelligence

52% confidence

Win prob · home

28.7%

-25.6ppvs pre-game · TOR favored

Leverage

37

medium

1-point game · away ball

Live edge

—

No fresh in-play moneyline. Live edge needs a snapshot in the last 5 minutes.

Live WP recomputes every 30 seconds from current score, time remaining, and possession state. Leverage measures how much the next play could swing the result.

MLB·Tue, May 5·End 1st/SeriesTB leads series 1-0/VegasTB -126
Updated 0s ago

Tonight's box score

Every player. Every line.

TOR · TB

TOR

TOR

16-19

1
PlayerH-ABRRBIHROPS
G. Springer
G. Springer★DH
0-10000.000
Y. Pinango
Y. Pinango★LF
0-10000.000
K. Okamoto
K. Okamoto★3B
1-11115.000
J. Sanchez
J. Sanchez★LF
0-10000.000
L. Sosa
L. Sosa★2B
0-0000—
D. Varsho
D. Varsho★CF
0-0000—
E. Clement
E. Clement★2B
0-0000—
A. Gimenez
A. Gimenez★SS
0-0000—
B. Valenzuela
B. Valenzuela★C
0-0000—
Team1-4111—
PlayerIPHERK
K. Gausman
K. Gausman★SP
1.0100
Team1.0100
TB

TB

22-12

0
PlayerH-ABRRBIHROPS
C. Simpson
C. Simpson★LF
0-10000.000
J. Caminero
J. Caminero★3B
1-10002.000
J. Aranda
J. Aranda★1B
0-10000.000
Y. Diaz
Y. Diaz★1B
0-10000.000
J. Fraley
J. Fraley★RF
0-0000—
B. Williamson
B. Williamson★2B
0-0000—
C. Mullins
C. Mullins★CF
0-0000—
H. Feduccia
H. Feduccia★C
0-0000—
R. Palacios
R. Palacios★2B
0-0000—
Team1-4000—
PlayerIPHERK
D. Rasmussen
D. Rasmussen★SP
1.0112
Team1.0112

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

1

Hits

1

1

Runs

0

0

Errors

0

Current series

TB leads series 1-0

May 4TORTOR1@TBTB5
May 5TORTOR@TBTBtoday
May 6TORTOR@TBTBupcoming

Season series

TB leads series 1-0

May 4TORTOR1@TBTB5
May 5TORTOR@TBTBtoday
May 6TORTOR@TBTBupcoming
May 11TBTB@TORTORupcoming
May 12TBTB@TORTORupcoming
May 13TBTB@TORTORupcoming
Jul 20TBTB@TORTORupcoming
Jul 21TBTB@TORTORupcoming
Jul 22TBTB@TORTORupcoming
Jul 23TBTB@TORTORupcoming
Aug 18TORTOR@TBTBupcoming
Aug 19TORTOR@TBTBupcoming
Aug 20TORTOR@TBTBupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

TOR -1.5

Total

0.0

Defensive · -8.5 vs avg

Moneyline

TORTOR+10449%
TBTB-12656%

↘5· 6.3h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet TOR -1.5↗SpreadBet TOR -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

0.0

0.0 since open

Pitching matchup · today

ESPN · season stats
TORTORSP
K. Gausman

K. Gausman

#34 · 2-2

ERA

3.10

K

40

SV

—

Last 3 starts

4/30@MINMIN5.2 IP · 4 ER · 2 KL(2-2)
4/25vsCLECLE6.2 IP · 2 ER · 3 KW(2-1)
4/19@ARIARI6.0 IP · 2 ER · 4 KW(1-1)
VS
TBTBSP
D. Rasmussen

D. Rasmussen

#57 · 2-1

ERA

2.64

K

32

SV

—

Last 3 starts

4/29@CLECLE5.0 IP · 2 ER · 6 KL(2-1)
4/24vsMINMIN6.0 IP · 1 ER · 6 KW(2-0)
4/18@PITPIT3.2 IP · 4 ER · 3 K-

Starting lineups

ESPN · 1-9 batting order
TORTOR4L · 4R · 1S
  1. 1

    G. Springer

    DH · #4

    R
  2. 2

    Y. Pinango

    LF · #24

    L
  3. 3

    K. Okamoto

    3B · #7

    R
  4. 4

    J. Sanchez

    RF · #12

    L
  5. 5

    L. Sosa

    1B · #50

    R
  6. 6

    D. Varsho

    CF · #5

    L
  7. 7

    E. Clement

    2B · #22

    R
  8. 8

    A. Gimenez

    SS · #0

    L
  9. 9

    B. Valenzuela

    C · #59

    B
TBTB6L · 3R
  1. 1

    C. Simpson

    LF · #14

    L
  2. 2

    J. Caminero

    3B · #13

    R
  3. 3

    J. Aranda

    1B · #8

    L
  4. 4

    Y. Diaz

    DH · #2

    R
  5. 5

    J. Fraley

    RF · #17

    L
  6. 6

    B. Williamson

    SS · #15

    R
  7. 7

    C. Mullins

    CF · #31

    L
  8. 8

    H. Feduccia

    C · #9

    L
  9. 9

    R. Palacios

    2B · #1

    L

Live · top performers so far

End 1st
Game flowTOR ↔ TB

Recent swing: 12pp · Top 1st Inning

Just happened

Pitch · 5 : Ball 3

TORTOR
K. Okamoto

K. Okamoto

3B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 1 HR · 5.000 OPS

K. Gausman

K. Gausman

SP

Starting pitcher

1.0 IP · 0 ER · 1 H

TBTB
J. Caminero

J. Caminero

3B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 2.000 OPS

D. Rasmussen

D. Rasmussen

SP

Starting pitcher

1.0 IP · 2 K · 1 ER · 1 H

How it's going

TOR lead TB 1-0 (End 1st).

Win probability

TB vs TOR

0255075100

Score progression

0 lead changes

TOR1
TB0

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
TORTop 1st Inning · 1-0
+12pp→ 53% WP

Okamoto · homered to right center (409 feet).

Linescore (innings)

Team1R
TOR11
TB00

Game flow · key plays

  1. B1

    Aranda flied out to right.

    TOR 1·TB 0

    −3pp

  2. B1

    Caminero singled to left.

    TOR 1·TB 0

    +3pp

  3. B1

    Simpson grounded out to shortstop.

    TOR 1·TB 0

    −2pp

  4. T1

    Sánchez struck out swinging.

    TOR 1·TB 0

    +0.5pp

  5. T1

    Okamoto homered to right center (409 feet).

    TOR 1·TB 0

    −12pp

  6. T1

    Pinango struck out looking.

    TOR 0·TB 0

    +1pp

Team stats

TOR

Away

Stat

TB

Home

1

Hits

1

0

Errors

0

1

Runs

0

Betting line

TOR -1.5·O/U 0·TOR +104/TB -126

DraftKings · via ESPN

Player projections

TB vs TOR.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 63 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Dylan CeaseTOR
    8.0± 3.9low
  • Kevin GausmanTOR
    5.7± 4.7low
  • Drew RasmussenTB
    5.3± 3.2low

Hits

  • Vladimir Guerrero Jr.TOR
    1.3± 1.2high
  • Yohendrick PinangoTOR
    1.3± 1.7low
  • Jonathan ArandaTB
    1.2± 1.4high

Total bases

  • Kazuma OkamotoTOR
    2.2± 2.8high
  • Jonathan ArandaTB
    2.1± 2.5high
  • Junior CamineroTB
    1.8± 2.5high

RBIs

  • Kazuma OkamotoTOR
    1.0± 1.2high
  • Jonathan ArandaTB
    0.9± 0.9high
  • Ryan ViladeTB
    0.6± 1.2medium

Earned runs

  • Eric LauerTOR
    3.0± 2.6low
  • Kevin GausmanTOR
    2.0± 1.7low
  • Patrick CorbinTOR
    2.0± 1.6low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

54.3%

ensemble · TB favored

  • Elo Static

    54.3%

    P(TB win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    54.9%

    P(TB win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    53.8%

    P(TB win)

    33%

    weight

Disagreement

0.45 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights are recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen