MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

Free during beta —Free during beta — to track favorite players + get game alertsto track favorites + alerts

BOT 6TH+2STL

STL

23-16

Live · model leanBot 6thPolls every 30s

59.3%

STL wins · current

Pre-game: 55.2% SD

STL 2 · 0 SD

STL +2

Live momentum · cumulative diff

Inn 6

away leadsSD leads

Key moments · live

newest first

SwingSTLTop 6th Inning · 2-0
+7pp→ 76% WP
Pag · és grounded out to third.
SwingSDBottom 5th Inning · 2-0
+7pp→ 34% WP
Song · walked.
Lead flipSTLTop 4th Inning · 2-0
+24pp→ 72% WP
Walker · homered to left (425 feet), Burleson scored.

Petco Park · San Diego, California

Probable starters

The mound matchup

Combined ERA 10.57

K. Leahy

4-3 · 4.93 ERA

W. Buehler

2-2 · 5.64 ERA

Line movement

200 snapshots

SD spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.5

SD no-vig %

55.1%

open 55.1%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = SD favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Ensemble breakdown

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

54.7%

ensemble · SD favored

Elo Static
55.2%
P(SD win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
54.3%
P(SD win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
54.6%
P(SD win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.37 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights are recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen

Live model · pick

Live · model intelligence

76% confidence

Win prob · home

3.3%

-51.9ppvs pre-game · STL favored

Leverage

low

Mostly decided · home ball

Live edge

—

No fresh in-play moneyline. Live edge needs a snapshot in the last 5 minutes.

Live WP recomputes every 30 seconds from current score, time remaining, and possession state. Leverage measures how much the next play could swing the result.

Receipts

Line shop

Player props

Player projections

SD vs STL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

122

projections · 57 high confidence

Strikeouts

Michael KingSD
5.6± 1.6low
Randy VasquezSD
5.3± 3.0low
Yu DarvishSD
4.5± 2.0medium

Hits

Ivan HerreraSTL
1.2± 1.3high
Jordan WalkerSTL
1.2± 1.3high
Alec BurlesonSTL
1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

Jordan WalkerSTL
2.2± 2.4high
Ty FranceSD
2.1± 2.7high
Alec BurlesonSTL
2.0± 1.6high

RBIs

Alec BurlesonSTL
0.9± 0.9high
Ty FranceSD
0.8± 1.3high
Jordan WalkerSTL
0.8± 1.1high

Earned runs

Matt WaldronSD
4.0± 3.3low
Dustin MaySTL
2.9± 3.2low
Walker BuehlerSD
2.7± 2.0low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

The One modelLean

● Live

STL

Cardinals

23-16

vs55.2%SD

SD★

Padres

23-16

STL 44.8%win prob55.2% SD

SD 1523 · STL 1511Box score→

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

MLBSun, May 10Bot 6thSeriesSTL leads series 2-1VegasSD -137

Updated 0s ago

STL · top performer

Jordan Walker

2.500OPS

2-1

AB-H

RBI

SD · top performer

Jackson Merrill

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

RBI

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Bot 6th

STL23-16

SD23-16

STL23-16SD23-16

STL

23-16

	Batting
Player	H-AB	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
J. Wetherholt★2B	1-3	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
SPRINT27.560
I. Herrera★C	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
SPRINT25.513
A. Burleson★1B	1-3	3	1	1	0	0	0	0
SPRINT25.513
J. Walker★RF	1-2	2	1	1	2	1	0	0
SPRINT28.891
N. Gorman★3B	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
SPRINT257
M. Winn★SS	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
N. Church★LF	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
T. Saggese★LF	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
P. Pages★C	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team	3-21	21	2	3	2	1	0	2

	Pitching
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	HR
K. Leahy★SP	5.0	2	0	0	4	5	0

Team	5.0	2	0	0	4	5	0

23-16

	Batting
Player	H-AB	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
J. Merrill★CF	1-1	1	0	1	0	0	2	0
SPRINT28.688
F. Tatis Jr.★RF	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
SPRINT28.483
M. Machado★3B	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
SPRINT24.32
G. Sheets★1B	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
SPRINT26.735
X. Bogaerts★SS	1-2	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
SPRINT27.148
M. Andujar★3B	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
T. France★1B	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
S. Song★3B	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	1	1
R. Duran★C	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team	2-17	17	0	2	0	0	4	5

	Pitching
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	HR
W. Buehler★SP	6.0	3	2	2	0	2	1
Team	6.0	3	2	2	0	2	1

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

STL

K. Leahy
95 pitches29% CSW
- FF
  32%94.1 mph27% whiff
- SL
  20%89.2 mph40% whiff
- CU
  18%83.6 mph38% whiff
- ST
  15%85.4 mph9% whiff
- CH
  8%88.7 mph75% whiff
- SI
  7%93.2 mph0% whiff
R. Stanek
1 pitches100% CSW
- SL
  100%86.6 mph— whiff

W. Buehler
89 pitches22% CSW
- FF
  26%94.3 mph15% whiff
- SI
  20%94.1 mph29% whiff
- FC
  18%90.1 mph0% whiff
- KC
  16%76.7 mph0% whiff
- ST
  10%82.1 mph33% whiff
- SL
  7%87.1 mph0% whiff
- CH
  3%89.7 mph0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

Hits

Runs

Errors

Current series

STL leads series 2-1

May 8

STL2@

SD1

May 9

STL6@

SD0

May 9

STL2@

SD4

May 10

STL@

SDtoday

Season series

STL leads series 2-1

May 8

STL2@

SD1

May 9

STL6@

SD0

May 9

STL2@

SD4

May 10

STL@

SDtoday

Jun 15

SD@

STLupcoming

Jun 16

SD@

STLupcoming

Jun 17

SD@

STLupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

SD -1.5

Total

8.5

Standard · 0.0 vs avg

Moneyline

STL+11447%

SD-13758%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet SD -1.5↗SpreadBet SD -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

8.5

0.0 since open

Pitching matchup · today

ESPN · season stats

STLSP

K. Leahy

#62 · 4-3

ERA

4.93

—

Last 3 starts

5/4vs

MIL5.1 IP · 1 ER · 5 KW(4-3)

4/28@

PIT5.1 IP · 3 ER · 7 KW(3-3)

4/22@

MIA5.0 IP · 4 ER · 2 KL(2-3)

SDSP

W. Buehler

#10 · 2-2

ERA

5.64

—

Last 3 starts

5/6@

SF5.1 IP · 4 ER · 5 KW(2-2)

4/29vs

CHC4.2 IP · 2 ER · 4 K-

4/23@

COL2.2 IP · 4 ER · 2 KL(1-2)

Starting lineups

ESPN · 1-9 batting order

STL4L · 5R

1
J. Wetherholt
2B · #26
L
2
I. Herrera
DH · #48
R
3
A. Burleson
1B · #41
L
4
J. Walker
RF · #18
R
5
N. Gorman
3B · #16
L
6
M. Winn
SS · #0
R
7
N. Church
CF · #27
L
8
T. Saggese
LF · #25
R
9
P. Pages
C · #43
R

SD3L · 6R

1
J. Merrill
CF · #3
L
2
F. Tatis Jr.
RF · #23
R
3
M. Machado
3B · #13
R
4
G. Sheets
LF · #30
L
5
X. Bogaerts
SS · #2
R
6
M. Andujar
DH · #41
R
7
T. France
1B · #25
R
8
S. Song
2B · #24
L
9
R. Duran
C · #48
R

Live · top performers so far

Bot 6th

Game flowSTL ↔ SD

Recent swing: 24pp · Top 4th Inning

Just happened

Ryne Stanek · pitches to Gavin Sheets

STL

J. Walker

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-2 · 1 HR · 2.500 OPS

K. Leahy

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 5 K · 0 ER · 2 H · 4 BB

On pace: 7 IP · 7 K · 0 ER

J. Merrill

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 2.000 OPS

W. Buehler

Starting pitcher

6.0 IP · 2 K · 2 ER · 3 H

On pace: 7 IP · 2 K · 2 ER

How it's going

STL lead SD 2-0 (Bot 6th). Walker's play in the top 4th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (24pp).

Win probability

SD vs STL

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

STLTop 4th Inning · 2-0

+24pp→ 72% WP

Walker · homered to left (425 feet), Burleson scored.

SDBottom 5th Inning · 2-0

+7pp→ 34% WP

Song · walked.

STLTop 6th Inning · 2-0

+7pp→ 76% WP

Pag · és grounded out to third.

Linescore (innings)

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	R
STL	0	0	0	2	0	0	2
SD	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Period scoring

STL won 1 · SD won 0

Inn 1

Inn 2

Inn 3

Inn 4

Walker 2

Inn 5

Inn 6

STL

Play-by-play · 339 plays

period

event

player

B6
Ryne Stanek pitches to Gavin Sheets
·
STL 2·SD 0
B6
Stanek relieved Leahy
·
STL 2·SD 0
B6
Bottom of the 6th inning
STL 2·SD 0
M6
Middle of the 6th inning
STL 2·SD 0
T6
· ·
STL 2·SD 0
T6
Burleson flied out to left.
· ·
STL 2·SD 0
+3pp
T6
Pitch 3 : Ball In Play
· ·
STL 2·SD 0
T6
Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul
· ·
STL 2·SD 0
T6
Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul
· ·
STL 2·SD 0
T6
Walker Buehler pitches to Alec Burleson
· ·
STL 2·SD 0
T6
· ·
STL 2·SD 0
T6
Herrera grounded out to catcher, Wetherholt to second.
· ·
STL 2·SD 0
+2pp
T6
Pitch 4 : Ball In Play
· ·
STL 2·SD 0
T6
Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking
· ·
STL 2·SD 0
T6
Pitch 2 : Ball 1
· ·
STL 2·SD 0
T6
Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking
· ·
STL 2·SD 0
T6
Walker Buehler pitches to Ivan Herrera
· ·
STL 2·SD 0
T6
·
STL 2·SD 0
T6
Wetherholt singled to right.
·
STL 2·SD 0
−3pp
T6
Pitch 7 : Ball In Play
·
STL 2·SD 0
T6
Pitch 6 : Ball 3
·
STL 2·SD 0
T6
Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul
·
STL 2·SD 0
T6
Pitch 4 : Ball 2
·
STL 2·SD 0
T6
Pitch 3 : Ball 1
·
STL 2·SD 0
T6
Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul
·
STL 2·SD 0
T6
Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging
·
STL 2·SD 0
T6
Walker Buehler pitches to JJ Wetherholt
· ·
STL 2·SD 0
T6
·
STL 2·SD 0
T6
Pagés grounded out to third.BIG MOMENT
·
STL 2·SD 0
−7pp
T6
Pitch 5 : Ball In Play
·
STL 2·SD 0

Team stats

STL

Away

Stat

Home

Runs

Hits

Errors

LOB

Betting line

SD -1.5·O/U 8.5·STL +114/SD -137

DraftKings · via ESPN