Phoenix Mercury at Indiana Fever
PHX
4-11
IND
9-5
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Preview · WNBA
hoenix Mercury visit Indiana Fever Monday at 6/22 - 8:00 PM EDT. IND arrives on a 4-game win streak (5-3 in their last 8).
The market hasn't shipped a line worth tagging key numbers on yet — check back closer to first pitch.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
Season series
Series starts 6/22
PHX@INDtodayPHX@INDupcomingIND@PHXupcomingScouting report
PHX @ IND
Tale of the tape
4-11
Record
9-5
#7
Conf rank
#3
-4.6
Pt diff
+4.9
L3
Streak
W4
2-8
Last 10
7-3
Composite signals from ESPN standings + 21-day power rolling. NBA pace / ORtg / DRtg from ESPN core team-stats; NFL yards-per-game from nflverse aggregation. Park factors, weather, KenPom-class metrics still on the roadmap.
Team stats
PHX
Away
Stat
IND
Home
42
FG %
45
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
44.5%
ensemble · PHX favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(IND win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(IND win)
32%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(IND win)
35%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
IND vs PHX.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
120
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Kelsey MitchellIND19.7± 4.7medium
- Caitlin ClarkIND19.0± 8.4medium
- Kahleah CopperPHX19.0± 9.8medium
Rebounds
- Aliyah BostonIND9.0± 4.0low
- Natasha MackPHX8.1± 3.5medium
- Alyssa ThomasPHX7.0± 3.1medium
Assists
- Alyssa ThomasPHX8.1± 2.5medium
- Caitlin ClarkIND7.9± 3.2medium
- Monique Akoa MakaniPHX3.1± 2.0low
Blocks
- Aliyah BostonIND1.3± 1.7low
- Natasha MackPHX1.3± 1.3medium
- Caitlin ClarkIND0.8± 0.7medium
Steals
- Alyssa ThomasPHX1.8± 1.3medium
- Monique Akoa MakaniPHX1.6± 1.0low
- Aliyah BostonIND1.1± 1.2low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
PHX
league avg
IND
42.0%
FG%
44.4
▶45.5%
31.5%
3PT %
33.1
▶33.4%
82.2
PPG
85.3
▶91.6
19.0
Assists / G
18.0
▶21.3
12.9
Turnovers / G
13.0
15.1