Park factor
103 total idx
Great American Ball Park run environment
Park factor boosts run scoring, so contact quality matters more tonight here.
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Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Reds
MIL
MIL
44-26
PregameMon, 7:10 PM EDT
CIN
CIN
35-37
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
1 signal · model + marketGreat American Ball Park · Cincinnati, Ohio
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
Brandon Sproat
SP · #23
1-4
W-L
5.70
ERA
1.48
WHIP
57
K
60.0
IP
Last 3 starts
@ATH-6.0 IP1 ER3 K
@COL-5.0 IP3 ER2 K
@HOUL(1-4)4.1 IP5 ER4 K
Home starter
Brady Singer
SP · #51
3-6
W-L
5.32
ERA
1.61
WHIP
52
K
66.0
IP
Last 3 starts
vsNYMW(3-6)5.0 IP1 ER5 K
@SD-6.0 IP2 ER5 K
@STLL(2-6)4.0 IP1 ER6 K
Vegas line
Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.
Model edge
Our model rates this game once both starters are confirmed.
Head to head
SeriesSeries tied 2-2
TypePreseason Series
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
48.1%
ensemble · MIL favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CIN win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CIN win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CIN win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
CIN vs MIL.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
125
projections · 85 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Jacob MisiorowskiMIL9.6± 3.1low
- Chase BurnsCIN7.1± 2.8low
- Kyle HarrisonMIL6.4± 5.2low
Hits
- Jackson ChourioMIL1.5± 1.4high
- William ContrerasMIL1.2± 1.3high
- Blake DunnCIN1.1± 0.9high
Total bases
- Jackson ChourioMIL2.9± 3.2high
- Brice TurangMIL2.1± 2.6high
- JJ BledayCIN2.0± 1.9high
RBIs
- Jackson ChourioMIL0.9± 1.3high
- Jake BauersMIL0.9± 1.4high
- Eugenio SuarezCIN0.8± 1.8high
Earned runs
- Chris PaddackCIN3.2± 2.4low
- Nick LodoloCIN3.1± 1.8low
- Brady SingerCIN2.8± 1.8low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
MIL
league avg
CIN
.733
OPS
◀
.717
.710
.339
OBP
◀
.319
.313
5.31
Runs / G
◀
4.50
4.31
3.41
Team ERA
◀
4.17
4.59
1.21
WHIP
◀
1.31
1.46
9.8
K / 9
◀
8.5
8.0
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
