Chicago Sky at Connecticut Sun
CHI
4-9
CON
2-13
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Preview · WNBA
hicago Sky visit Connecticut Sun Monday at 6/22 - 7:00 PM EDT.
The market hasn't shipped a line worth tagging key numbers on yet — check back closer to first pitch.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
Season series
CHI leads series 1-0
CON80@CHI85CHI@CONtodayCON@CHIupcomingCHI@CONupcomingScouting report
CHI @ CON
Tale of the tape
4-9
Record
2-13
#6
Conf rank
#7
-5.6
Pt diff
-11.2
L3
Streak
L5
2-8
Last 10
2-8
85.1
Sched ahead
44.0
Composite signals from ESPN standings + 21-day power rolling. NBA pace / ORtg / DRtg from ESPN core team-stats; NFL yards-per-game from nflverse aggregation. Park factors, weather, KenPom-class metrics still on the roadmap.
Team stats
CHI
Away
Stat
CON
Home
42
FG %
42
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
44.5%
ensemble · CHI favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CON win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CON win)
32%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CON win)
35%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
CON vs CHI.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
130
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Rickea JacksonCHI16.0± 11.0low
- Skylar DigginsCHI14.6± 9.9low
- Brittney GrinerCON12.2± 5.4low
Rebounds
- Aneesah MorrowCON10.2± 5.1medium
- Kamilla CardosoCHI8.2± 4.5medium
- Azura StevensCHI5.6± 5.4low
Assists
- Leila LacanCON5.2± 3.0low
- Natasha CloudCHI4.3± 3.2low
- Skylar DigginsCHI3.9± 3.2low
Blocks
- Kamilla CardosoCHI1.9± 2.2medium
- Brittney GrinerCON1.3± 1.6low
- Elizabeth WilliamsCHI1.2± 1.4low
Steals
- Leila LacanCON1.7± 1.6low
- Ashlon JacksonCON1.3± 1.6low
- Aicha CoulibalyCHI1.2± 1.1low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
CHI
league avg
CON
41.8%
FG%
44.4
42.1%
29.9%
3PT %
33.1
26.3%
82.2
PPG
85.3
77.9
19.1
Assists / G
18.0
18.7
12.7
Turnovers / G
13.0
14.3