MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

MIL

44-26

PregameSun, 1:35 PM EDT

ATL

46-25

Verdict

Pass · no edge tonight.

The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.

Truist Park · Atlanta, Georgia

Drill down

Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props

Pregame · scouting report

The matchup, end-to-end.

Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.

Away starter

Robert Gasser

SP · #54

0-3

W-L

4.88

ERA

1.38

WHIP

24.0

Last 3 starts

vsCLE-5.2 IP0 ER5 K

@ATHL(0-3)5.0 IP6 ER7 K

vsSFL(0-2)5.0 IP1 ER5 K

Home starter

Grant Holmes

SP · #66

4-2

W-L

4.05

ERA

1.34

WHIP

66.2

Last 3 starts

@CHW-3.2 IP3 ER2 K

vsTORW(4-2)6.0 IP2 ER4 K

@CIN-4.2 IP3 ER5 K

Vegas line

Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.

Model edge

Our model rates this game once both starters are confirmed.

Head to head

SeriesSeries starts 6/19

TypeRegular Season Series

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

48.1%

ensemble · MIL favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ATL win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ATL win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ATL win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

ATL vs MIL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

118

projections · 87 high confidence

Strikeouts

Jacob MisiorowskiMIL
9.6± 3.1low
Chris SaleATL
7.4± 2.1low
Kyle HarrisonMIL
6.4± 5.2low

Hits

Jackson ChourioMIL
1.5± 1.4high
William ContrerasMIL
1.2± 1.3high
Drake BaldwinATL
1.1± 0.7high

Total bases

Jackson ChourioMIL
2.9± 3.2high
Drake BaldwinATL
2.2± 2.0high
Matt OlsonATL
2.1± 2.4high

RBIs

Jackson ChourioMIL
0.9± 1.3high
Jake BauersMIL
0.9± 1.4high
Drake BaldwinATL
0.8± 0.8high

Earned runs

Brandon SproatMIL
2.7± 2.0low
Robert GasserMIL
2.6± 3.3low
Bryce ElderATL
2.4± 2.1medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

MIL

league avg

ATL

.733

OPS

.717

▶

.744

.339

OBP

◀

.319

.320

5.31

Runs / G

◀

4.50

5.06

3.41

Team ERA

4.17

▶

3.29

1.21

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.18

9.8

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.8

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

Milwaukee Brewers at Atlanta Braves

The matchup, end-to-end.

3 sub-models, blended.

ATL vs MIL.

Team rate stats vs league