MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

STL

40-31

PregameSun, 2:10 PM EDT

29-45

Verdict

Pass · no edge tonight.

The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.

Kauffman Stadium · Kansas City, Missouri

Drill down

Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props

Pregame · scouting report

The matchup, end-to-end.

Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.

Away starter

Dustin May

SP · #3

5-6

W-L

3.75

ERA

1.14

WHIP

81.2

Last 3 starts

vsSDW(5-6)9.0 IP0 ER9 K

@NYMW(4-6)6.0 IP0 ER6 K

vsTEX-5.2 IP3 ER9 K

Home starter

Stephen Kolek

SP · #32

4-1

W-L

2.68

ERA

1.03

WHIP

50.1

Last 3 starts

vsHOUW(4-1)7.1 IP0 ER4 K

vsTEX-5.0 IP1 ER3 K

@CIN-7.0 IP2 ER8 K

Vegas line

Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.

Model edge

Our model rates this game once both starters are confirmed.

Head to head

SeriesSTL leads series 2-1

TypeRegular Season Series

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

48.1%

ensemble · STL favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(KC win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(KC win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(KC win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

KC vs STL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

127

projections · 81 high confidence

Strikeouts

Dustin MaySTL
5.7± 3.6low
Noah CameronKC
5.0± 3.0low
Matthew LiberatoreSTL
5.0± 3.2low

Hits

Bobby Witt Jr.KC
1.3± 1.2high
Jac CaglianoneKC
1.2± 1.4high
Kameron MisnerKC
1.2± 1.1low

Total bases

Alec BurlesonSTL
2.5± 1.7high
Blaze JordanSTL
2.4± 3.6low
Jordan WalkerSTL
2.3± 1.8high

RBIs

Blaze JordanSTL
1.0± 1.6low
Jordan WalkerSTL
1.0± 1.4high
Carter JensenKC
0.8± 1.1high

Earned runs

Michael WachaKC
2.8± 2.0medium
Matthew LiberatoreSTL
2.7± 2.2low
Noah CameronKC
2.5± 2.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

STL

league avg

.721

OPS

◀

.717

.695

.324

OBP

◀

.319

.317

4.58

Runs / G

◀

4.50

3.99

4.06

Team ERA

◀

4.17

4.51

1.32

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.38

7.8

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.0

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

St. Louis Cardinals at Kansas City Royals

The matchup, end-to-end.

3 sub-models, blended.

KC vs STL.

Team rate stats vs league

3 sub-models, blended.