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New York Yankees at Detroit Tigers
NYY
NYY
44-27
PregameMon, 6:10 PM EDT
DET
DET
30-43
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Comerica Park · Detroit, Michigan
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
Carlos Rodon
SP · #55
2-2
W-L
3.19
ERA
1.19
WHIP
34
K
31.0
IP
Last 3 starts
@CLEW(2-2)6.0 IP3 ER7 K
vsCLE-6.0 IP1 ER7 K
@ATHW(1-2)6.0 IP1 ER3 K
Home starter
Framber Valdez
SP · #59
3-5
W-L
4.09
ERA
1.35
WHIP
67
K
83.2
IP
Last 3 starts
@HOU-6.0 IP0 ER6 K
vsMINL(3-5)5.0 IP4 ER2 K
vsSEAW(3-4)5.0 IP1 ER5 K
Vegas line
Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.
Model edge
Our model rates this game once both starters are confirmed.
Head to head
SeriesSeries tied 2-2
TypePreseason Series
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
48.1%
ensemble · NYY favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DET win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DET win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DET win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
DET vs NYY.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
129
projections · 91 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Ryan WeathersNYY6.3± 3.9low
- Cam SchlittlerNYY6.2± 2.1medium
- Tarik SkubalDET6.1± 2.9low
Hits
- Paul GoldschmidtNYY1.3± 0.8high
- Dillon DinglerDET1.2± 1.4high
- Gleyber TorresDET1.2± 1.3high
Total bases
- Dillon DinglerDET2.3± 3.5high
- Paul GoldschmidtNYY2.2± 1.6high
- Ben RiceNYY2.0± 2.1high
RBIs
- Paul GoldschmidtNYY0.9± 1.1high
- Dillon DinglerDET0.8± 1.2high
- Cody BellingerNYY0.7± 0.9high
Earned runs
- Ryan WeathersNYY3.0± 3.1low
- Framber ValdezDET2.6± 2.4medium
- Will WarrenNYY2.2± 2.1low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
NYY
league avg
DET
.770
OPS
◀
.717
.709
.332
OBP
◀
.319
.316
5.21
Runs / G
◀
4.50
4.10
3.30
Team ERA
◀
4.17
3.90
1.18
WHIP
◀
1.31
1.28
8.7
K / 9
◀
8.5
8.3
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
