Texas Rangers vs Detroit Tigers: Final Score & Box Score — May 3, 2026

FINAL+6DET

TEX

16-18

DET

18-17

Comerica Park · Detroit, Michigan

24,083 attended

Line movement

87 snapshots

DET spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.0 · +0.5

DET no-vig %

52.2%

open 51.7% · +0.4

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = DET favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Logged before first pitch · graded in public

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

51.8%

ensemble · DET favored

Elo Static
51.7%
P(DET win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
53.7%
P(DET win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
50.9%
P(DET win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.17 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

92% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

DET vs TEX.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 89 high confidence

Strikeouts

Jacob deGromTEX
6.4± 2.5medium
Tarik SkubalDET
6.3± 2.9low
Nathan EovaldiTEX
6.2± 2.3medium

Hits

Dillon DinglerDET
1.4± 1.1high
Wyatt LangfordTEX
1.4± 1.1high
Brandon NimmoTEX
1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

Wyatt LangfordTEX
2.6± 2.3high
Dillon DinglerDET
2.4± 2.0high
Brandon NimmoTEX
1.8± 1.7high

RBIs

Wyatt LangfordTEX
0.8± 1.0high
Dillon DinglerDET
0.7± 0.8high
Colt KeithDET
0.6± 2.0high

Earned runs

Nathan EovaldiTEX
2.9± 2.3medium
Framber ValdezDET
2.6± 2.4medium
Jacob deGromTEX
2.5± 3.0medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

TEX

league avg

DET

.705

OPS

.719

.710

.318

OBP

.319

.315

3.99

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.09

3.93

Team ERA

4.19

▶

3.83

1.24

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.26

8.6

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.3

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

DET wins

TEX 1 · DET 7 (by 6)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked DET +2pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
TEX	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	1
DET	0	0	0	0	2	1	4	0	7

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. NimmoRF	.300	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
A. McCutchenDH	.205	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
C. SeagerSS	.213	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
J. Jung3B	.325	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. Burger1B	.216	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
E. CarterCF	.170	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
E. Duran2B	.275	4	1	1	0	0	0	0
J. Smith2B	.217	3	0	2	0	0	1	0
K. HigashiokaC	.208	3	0	0	1	0	1	0
A. OsunaLF	.235	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		34	1	7	1	0	2	7

Player

.300

.205

.213

.325

.216

.170

.275

.217

.208

.235

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. LeiterSP	6.2	5	5	5	1	10	100
T. AlexanderRP	0.1	3	2	2	0	0	6
G. CollyerRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	21
Team	8.0	8	7	7	1	12	127

Player

J. LeiterSP

6.2

100

T. AlexanderRP

0.1

G. CollyerRP

1.0

Team

8.0

127

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
K. McGonigleSS	.315	4	1	2	2	0	0	0
M. VierlingCF	.214	4	0	1	2	0	0	2
C. Keith3B	.323	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
R. GreeneLF	.290	3	1	0	0	0	1	2
S. Torkelson1B	.225	4	1	1	2	1	0	3
K. CarpenterRF	.213	4	1	1	0	0	0	2
W. PerezRF	.161	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
H. Lee2B	.212	3	1	1	1	0	0	2
J. RogersC	.182	3	2	2	0	0	0	0
Z. ShortSS	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		32	7	8	7	1	1	12

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. HoltonRP	0.2	1	0	0	0	1	17
B. HanifeeRP	1.2	1	0	0	0	1	24
B. HurterRP	3.1	2	0	0	1	2	38
R. VanascoRP	1.1	1	1	1	1	2	28
K. FinneganRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	10
B. SmithRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	18
Team	9.0	7	1	1	2	7	135

Team

TEX

DET

—

3 sub-models, blended.

DET vs TEX.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

DET vs TEX.

3 sub-models, blended.