MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

SUN, 7:20 PM EDT

TEX

16-17

DET

17-17

Comerica Park · Detroit, Michigan

Probable starters

The mound matchup

Combined ERA 10.71

J. Leiter

1-2 · 5.17 ERA

T. Holton

0-1 · 5.54 ERA

Pregame · scouting report

The matchup, end-to-end.

Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.

Away starter

Jack Leiter

SP · #22

1-2

W-L

5.17

ERA

1.47

WHIP

31.1

Last 3 starts

vsNYYL(1-2)6.0 IP4 ER4 K

vsPIT-5.0 IP3 ER5 K

@ATH-5.2 IP3 ER3 K

Home starter

Tyler Holton

RP · #87

0-1

W-L

5.54

ERA

1.92

WHIP

13.0

Last 3 starts

@ATL-1.0 IP2 ER1 K

@CIN-1.0 IP2 ER0 K

vsMIL-1.0 IP0 ER0 K

Vegas line

Spread-1.5

TotalO/U 8.5

Money+102 / -122

Model edge

Win prob47% / 53%

LeanTossup

ConfidenceTossup

Head to head

SeriesSeries tied 1-1

TypeCurrent Series

Place a bet

Pick a side.

Even matchup per the model — pick a side and we'll send you to the book.

+102Bet TEX ML↗+102Bet TEX ML↗

-122Bet DET ML↗-122Bet DET ML↗

Other markets

-1.5Bet the run line↗-1.5Bet the run line↗

O/U 8.5Bet the total↗O/U 8.5Bet the total↗

21+ in most states. Lines refreshed at the moment of fetch. We may earn a referral fee on book signups — your odds and terms are unchanged.

Projected lineups

Top of the order, top of mind.

Posted by ESPN ~30 minutes before first pitch.

TEX

1.B. NimmoDH
2.A. McCutchenRF
3.C. SeagerSS
4.J. Jung3B
5.J. Burger1B
6.E. CarterCF
7.E. DuranLF
8.J. Smith2B
9.K. HigashiokaC

DET

1.K. McGonigleSS
2.M. VierlingCF
3.C. Keith3B
4.R. GreeneLF
5.S. Torkelson1B
6.K. CarpenterDH
7.W. PerezRF
8.H. Lee2B
9.J. RogersC

Line movement

39 snapshots

DET spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.0 · +0.5

DET implied %

55.0%

open 54.1% · +0.8

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = DET favored. Pure CLV joins once moneyline closing-line ingest catches up across leagues.

Model vs marketAligned

DraftKings · snapped 12m ago

No edgemodel and market agree on DET

DET

TEXWin prob axisDET DET

Market 53%

Model 53%

0%50%100%

ModelDET 53%Pre-game prob

MarketDET 53%No-vig · 4.5% hold

Edge—Within noise

TEX +102/

DET -122Pass · no value

The One modelTossup

Sun, May 3

TEX

Rangers

16-17

vs53%DET

DET★

Tigers

17-17

TEX 47%win prob53% DET

DET 1502 · TEX 1506Box score→

MLBSun, May 35/3 - 7:20 PM EDTSeriestied 1-1VegasDET -122

Preview · MLB

exas Rangers visit Detroit Tigers Sunday at 5/3 - 7:20 PM EDT.

Vegas opened TEX as a 1.5-point favorite with the total at 8.5. DET's moneyline implies a 55% break-even, TEX the inverse. DET is on a back-to-back.

For bettors: the TEX side carries the favorite-tax, the dog gets the points and a plus-money payout. The 8.5 total reads near the league average.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Line just movedTotal ↗ 0.5pt over 6.5h12m ago

Updated 0s ago

Tonight's box score

Every player. Every line.

TEX · DET

TEX

16-17

B. Nimmo★

OPS

0.698

H-AB

38-126

RBI

A. McCutchen★

OPS

0.463

H-AB

8-41

RBI

C. Seager★

OPS

0.576

H-AB

25-118

RBI

J. Jung★

OPS

0.764

H-AB

36-110

RBI

J. Burger★

OPS

0.585

H-AB

29-130

RBI

E. Carter★

OPS

0.448

H-AB

17-96

RBI

E. Duran★

OPS

0.600

H-AB

18-65

RBI

J. Smith★

OPS

0.404

H-AB

18-89

RBI

K. Higashioka★

OPS

0.511

H-AB

10-45

RBI

Team total

H-AB

-----

RBI

Player	H-AB	RBI	HR	OPS
B. Nimmo★RF	38-126	12	4	0.698
A. McCutchen★LF	8-41	5	1	0.463
C. Seager★SS	25-118	17	6	0.576
J. Jung★3B	36-110	19	4	0.764
J. Burger★1B	29-130	20	6	0.585
E. Carter★CF	17-96	9	3	0.448
E. Duran★LF	18-65	8	1	0.600
J. Smith★2B	18-89	6	0	0.404
K. Higashioka★C	10-45	3	1	0.511
Team	-----	--	--	—

J. Leiter★

--.--

Team total

--.--

Player	IP	H	ER	K
J. Leiter★SP	--.--	--	--	--
Team	--.--	--	--	--

DET

17-17

K. McGonigle★

OPS

0.667

H-AB

39-126

RBI

M. Vierling★

OPS

0.470

H-AB

14-66

RBI

C. Keith★

OPS

0.653

H-AB

31-95

RBI

R. Greene★

OPS

0.694

H-AB

36-121

RBI

S. Torkelson★

OPS

0.589

H-AB

24-107

RBI

K. Carpenter★

OPS

0.622

H-AB

19-90

RBI

W. Perez★

OPS

0.453

H-AB

9-53

RBI

H. Lee★

OPS

0.500

H-AB

6-30

RBI

J. Rogers★

OPS

0.267

H-AB

4-30

RBI

Team total

H-AB

-----

RBI

Player	H-AB	RBI	HR	OPS
K. McGonigle★SS	39-126	14	2	0.667
M. Vierling★CF	14-66	11	1	0.470
C. Keith★3B	31-95	6	0	0.653
R. Greene★LF	36-121	19	4	0.694
S. Torkelson★1B	24-107	12	5	0.589
K. Carpenter★RF	19-90	17	6	0.622
W. Perez★RF	9-53	5	2	0.453
H. Lee★3B	6-30	4	1	0.500
J. Rogers★C	4-30	4	0	0.267
Team	-----	--	--	—

T. Holton★

--.--

Team total

--.--

Player	IP	H	ER	K
T. Holton★RP	--.--	--	--	--
Team	--.--	--	--	--

Current series

Series tied 1-1

May 1

TEX5@

DET4

May 2

TEX1@

DET5

May 3

TEX@

DETtoday

Season series

Series tied 1-1

May 1

TEX5@

DET4

May 2

TEX1@

DET5

May 3

TEX@

DETtoday

Jul 3

DET@

TEXupcoming

Jul 4

DET@

TEXupcoming

Jul 5

DET@

TEXupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

TEX -1.5

Total

8.5

Standard · 0.0 vs avg

0.5pt· 6.5h

Moneyline

TEX+10250%

DET-12255%

4· 6.5h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet TEX -1.5↗SpreadBet TEX -1.5↗

Line movement · 39 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

8.5

+0.5 since open

Pitching matchup · today

ESPN · season stats

TEXSP

J. Leiter

#22 · 1-2

ERA

5.17

—

Last 3 starts

4/28vs

NYY6.0 IP · 4 ER · 4 KL(1-2)

4/23vs

PIT5.0 IP · 3 ER · 5 K-

4/16@

ATH5.2 IP · 3 ER · 3 K-

DETRP

T. Holton

#87 · 0-1

ERA

5.54

—

Last 3 starts

4/28@

ATL1.0 IP · 2 ER · 1 K-

4/25@

CIN1.0 IP · 2 ER · 0 K-

4/23vs

MIL1.0 IP · 0 ER · 0 K-

Starting lineups

ESPN · 1-9 batting order

TEX4L · 5R

1
B. Nimmo
DH
L
2
A. McCutchen
RF
R
3
C. Seager
SS
L
4
J. Jung
3B
R
5
J. Burger
1B
R
6
E. Carter
CF
L
7
E. Duran
LF
R
8
J. Smith
2B
L
9
K. Higashioka
C
R

DET4L · 4R · 1S

1
K. McGonigle
SS
L
2
M. Vierling
CF
R
3
C. Keith
3B
L
4
R. Greene
LF
L
5
S. Torkelson
1B
R
6
K. Carpenter
DH
L
7
W. Perez
RF
B
8
H. Lee
2B
R
9
J. Rogers
C
R

Scouting report

TEX @ DET

5/3 - 7:20 PM EDT

Rest going in

TEXB2B

0 days

last game May 2

DETB2B

0 days

last game May 2

Model edge vs market

Lean only

Spread

Market

TEX -1.5

Model

On the roadmap

Edge

—

Total

Market

8.5

Model

On the roadmap

Edge

—

Moneyline

Market

TEX +102

Model

On the roadmap

Edge

—

Model spread derived from 21-day power-rank delta · not a true point-spread model. Total + ML model wires roadmap. Bet responsibly · 21+

Tale of the tape

TEXmetricDET

16-17

Record

17-17

Conf rank

+0.1

Pt diff

+0.3

Streak

4-6

Last 10

5-5

Bullpen used yesterday

TEX

6.0 bullpen IP · heavy

C. Quantrill3.0 IP56 P
P. Gray2.0 IP35 P
G. Collyer1.0 IP16 P

L 5-1 · May 2

DET

2.3 bullpen IP

D. Anderson2.1 IP28 P

W 5-1 · May 2

Composite signals from ESPN standings + 21-day power rolling. NBA pace / ORtg / DRtg from ESPN core team-stats; NFL yards-per-game from nflverse aggregation. Park factors, weather, KenPom-class metrics still on the roadmap.

Team stats

TEX

Away

Stat

DET

Home

258

Hits

285

Errors

126

Runs

151

Betting line

TEX -1.5·O/U 8.5·TEX +102/DET -122

DraftKings · via ESPN