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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+2KC
LAA

LAA

12-17

9
11
KC

KC

11-17

Kauffman Stadium · Kansas City, Missouri
11,579 attended

Line movement

35 snapshots

KC spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.5

KC no-vig %

50.4%

open 50.4%

+2.0+1.0KC SPREADO/U 9.0O/U 8.0TOTAL54.4%46.4%KC NO-VIG %May 3, 7 PMMay 24, 12 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = KC favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

KC wins

LAA 9 · KC 11 (by 2)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked KC +8pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team12345678910R
LAA24000010119
KC000012203311

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-112

Close price

-112

Open no-vig

50.4%

Close no-vig

50.4%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 25, 26sim 92
    31
    7(H)12
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Mar 28, 26sim 91
    39
    18(H)11
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 18, 26sim 91
    2116
    20(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 9, 26sim 91
    31
    14(H)14
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 13, 26sim 90
    205
    23(H)16
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 6, 26sim 90
    92
    20(H)15
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Sun, Apr 26·Final/SeriesKC wins series 3-0/VegasKC -112

Recap · MLB

Kansas City Royals held off Los Angeles Angels, 11–9.

KC +1.5 cashed (LAA lost outright). Total cleared the 8.5 OVER by 11.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

LAA · top performer

LAA
Josh Lowe

Josh Lowe

LF

1.500OPS

4-3

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

KC · top performer

KC
Jac Caglianone

Jac Caglianone

RF

2.500OPS

2-1

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

MLB · Los Angeles Angels at Kansas City Royals · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final/10
LAA12-17
9
11
KC11-17
LAA12-17·KC11-17
LAA

LAA

12-17

9
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
Z. NetoZ. Neto★SS
3-55232011
SPRINT27.148
M. TroutM. Trout★CF
1-55112110
SPRINT28.688
Y. MoncadaY. Moncada★3B
2-55020001
J. SolerJ. Soler★DH
2-66121002
SPRINT2622
N. SchanuelN. Schanuel★1B
1-55010000
J. AdellJ. Adell★RF
1-44011012
J. LoweJ. Lowe★LF
3-44130000
SPRINT27.251
T. d'ArnaudT. d'Arnaud★C
1-44110010
A. FrazierA. Frazier★2B
2-55221001
SPRINT26.225
O. PerazaO. Peraza2B
0-11100001
Team16-44449167158
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
R. DetmersR. Detmers★SP
5.0533151
S. BachmanS. BachmanRP
1.0322201
R. ZeferjahnR. ZeferjahnRP
1.2000110
B. SuterB. SuterRP
1.0222100
D. PomeranzD. PomeranzRP
0.1111001
J. LucchesiJ. LucchesiRP
0.2132111
Team9.2121110674
KC

KC

11-17

11
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
L. ThomasL. Thomas★CF
3-66233101
SPRINT28.688
B. Witt Jr.B. Witt Jr.★SS
2-55122100
SPRINT30.399+
V. PasquantinoV. Pasquantino★1B
1-33111011
SPRINT25.411
S. PerezS. Perez★C
1-55111000
S. MarteS. Marte★RF
1-33010002
C. JensenC. Jensen★C
0-44100011
N. LoftinN. Loftin★2B
1-44110010
I. CollinsI. Collins★LF
2-44122111
SPRINT27.867
M. MasseyM. Massey★2B
0-22100010
J. CaglianoneJ. CaglianoneRF
1-22112101
SPRINT27.148
M. GarciaM. Garcia3B
0-11100010
Team12-3939111211467
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
S. LugoS. Lugo★SP
6.11477131
E. MorganE. MorganRP
0.2100000
N. MearsN. MearsRP
1.0000010
A. LangeA. LangeRP
1.0111320
L. ErcegL. ErcegRP
1.0010120
Team10.01698581

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

LAA

  • R. Detmers
    93 pitches·27% CSW
    • FF
      54%·93.8 mph·19% whiff
    • SL
      20%·87.3 mph·13% whiff
    • CH
      14%·83.5 mph·22% whiff
    • CU
      12%·73.5 mph·33% whiff
  • B. Suter
    29 pitches·14% CSW
    • SI
      41%·88.0 mph·14% whiff
    • CH
      28%·76.3 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      24%·87.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      7%·77.1 mph·— whiff
  • S. Bachman
    23 pitches·13% CSW
    • SL
      61%·87.1 mph·17% whiff
    • SI
      35%·95.8 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      4%·89.5 mph·— whiff
  • J. Lucchesi
    22 pitches·27% CSW
    • SI
      36%·92.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      32%·92.3 mph·33% whiff
    • CU
      27%·77.7 mph·100% whiff
    • FS
      5%·82.3 mph·100% whiff
  • R. Zeferjahn
    20 pitches·20% CSW
    • FF
      55%·96.7 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      25%·83.5 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      20%·88.5 mph·0% whiff
  • D. Pomeranz
    6 pitches·17% CSW
    • FF
      100%·92.0 mph·0% whiff

KC

  • S. Lugo
    97 pitches·18% CSW
    • SI
      21%·90.6 mph·10% whiff
    • FF
      18%·91.4 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      13%·77.3 mph·9% whiff
    • FC
      12%·89.9 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      10%·76.4 mph·14% whiff
    • SL
      8%·84.3 mph·50% whiff
    • CH
      6%·84.5 mph·0% whiff
    • CS
      6%·69.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SV
      5%·77.8 mph·0% whiff
  • A. Lange
    34 pitches·26% CSW
    • FF
      41%·95.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      38%·87.0 mph·67% whiff
    • SI
      15%·94.9 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      3%·91.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      3%·92.3 mph·— whiff
  • L. Erceg
    21 pitches·24% CSW
    • SI
      33%·94.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      33%·83.0 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      29%·94.5 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      5%·87.7 mph·0% whiff
  • E. Morgan
    14 pitches·21% CSW
    • FF
      43%·90.7 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      29%·75.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      29%·85.4 mph·0% whiff
  • N. Mears
    12 pitches·25% CSW
    • FF
      58%·94.2 mph·25% whiff
    • SL
      33%·84.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      8%·93.7 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

16

Hits

12

9

Runs

11

0

Errors

0

Current series

KC wins series 3-0

Apr 24LAALAA3@KCKC6
Apr 25LAALAA1@KCKC12
Apr 26LAALAA9@KCKC11today

Season series

KC leads series 3-0

Apr 24LAALAA3@KCKC6
Apr 25LAALAA1@KCKC12
Apr 26LAALAA9@KCKC11today
Aug 15KCKC@LAALAAupcoming
Aug 16KCKC@LAALAAupcoming
Aug 16KCKC@LAALAAupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

LAA -1.5

Total

8.5

Standard · 0.0 vs avg

Moneyline

LAALAA-10852%
KCKC-11253%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet LAA -1.5↗SpreadBet LAA -1.5↗

Line movement · 35 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

8.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowLAA ↔ KC

Biggest swing: 79pp · Bottom 10th Inning

LAALAA
J. Lowe

J. Lowe

LF

Batter of the game

3-for-4 · 1 R · 1.500 OPS

R. Detmers

R. Detmers

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 5 K · 3 ER · 5 H · 1 BB

KCKC
J. Caglianone

J. Caglianone

RF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-2 · 1 HR · 2.500 OPS

S. Lugo

S. Lugo

SP

Starting pitcher

6.1 IP · 3 K · 7 ER · 14 H · 1 BB

How it ended

KC beat LAA 11-9. Thomas's play in the bottom 10th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (79pp).

Win probability

KC vs LAA

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9I10

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
LAATop 1st Inning · 2-0
+16pp→ 69% WP

Trout · homered to left center (381 feet), Neto scored.

KCBottom 9th Inning · 8-8
+50pp→ 55% WP

Caglianone · homered to right (409 feet), Perez scored.

KCBottom 10th Inning · 9-11
+79pp→ 100% WP

Thomas · homered to left center (407 feet), Jensen scored and Garcia scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team12345678910R
LAA24000010119
KC000012203311

Period scoring

LAA won 2 · KC won 5

2
0

Inn 1

Trout 2

4
0

Inn 2

Neto 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
1

Inn 5

Collins 1

0
2

Inn 6

Jr. 2

1
2

Inn 7

Adell 1

Collins 1

0
0

Inn 8

1
3

Inn 9

Teodosio 1

Caglianone 2

1
3

Inn 10

Peraza 1

Thomas 3

LAA
KC

Play-by-play · 721 plays

period
event
player
  1. B10

    ·

    LAA 9·KC 11

  2. B10

    Thomas homered to left center (407 feet), Jensen scored and Garcia scored.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    LAA 9·KC 11

    +79pp

  3. B10

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    LAA 9·KC 11

  4. B10

    Pitch 4 : Ball 3

    · ·

    LAA 9·KC 8

  5. B10

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    LAA 9·KC 11

  6. B10

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    LAA 9·KC 11

  7. B10

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    LAA 9·KC 8

  8. B10

    Joey Lucchesi pitches to Lane Thomas

    · ·

    LAA 9·KC 11

  9. B10

    · ·

    LAA 9·KC 8

  10. B10

    Garcia walked.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    LAA 9·KC 8

    +5pp

  11. B10

    Pitch 8 : Ball 4

    · ·

    LAA 9·KC 8

  12. B10

    Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    LAA 9·KC 8

  13. B10

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    LAA 9·KC 8

  14. B10

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    LAA 9·KC 8

  15. B10

    Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    LAA 9·KC 8

  16. B10

    Pitch 3 : Ball 3

    · ·

    LAA 9·KC 8

  17. B10

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    LAA 9·KC 8

  18. B10

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    LAA 9·KC 8

  19. B10

    Joey Lucchesi pitches to Maikel Garcia

    · ·

    LAA 9·KC 8

  20. B10

    · ·

    LAA 9·KC 8

  21. B10

    Collins struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    LAA 9·KC 8

    −26pp

  22. B10

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    LAA 9·KC 8

  23. B10

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    · ·

    LAA 9·KC 8

  24. B10

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    · ·

    LAA 9·KC 8

  25. B10

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    LAA 9·KC 8

  26. B10

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    LAA 9·KC 8

  27. B10

    Joey Lucchesi pitches to Isaac Collins

    · ·

    LAA 9·KC 8

  28. B10

    · ·

    LAA 9·KC 8

  29. B10

    Loftin grounded out to first, Jensen to third.

    · ·

    LAA 9·KC 8

    −3pp

  30. B10

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    LAA 9·KC 8

Team stats

LAA

Away

Stat

KC

Home

9

Runs

11

16

Hits

12

0

Errors

0

24

TB

30

1

HR

4

5

BB

6

8

K

7

30

LOB

13

Betting line

LAA -1.5·O/U 8.5·LAA -108/KC -112

DraftKings · via ESPN

Player projections

KC vs LAA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

127

projections · 76 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Reid DetmersLAA
    6.7± 4.4low
  • Jose SorianoLAA
    6.6± 2.9low
  • Michael WachaKC
    5.4± 2.1low

Hits

  • Maikel GarciaKC
    1.1± 0.8high
  • Zach NetoLAA
    1.1± 1.1high
  • Bobby Witt Jr.KC
    0.9± 0.6high

Total bases

  • Zach NetoLAA
    2.1± 2.5high
  • Bobby Witt Jr.KC
    1.7± 1.5high
  • Mike TroutLAA
    1.7± 1.8high

RBIs

  • Vaughn GrissomLAA
    1.0± 1.9high
  • Mike TroutLAA
    0.6± 0.9high
  • Wade MecklerLAA
    0.6± 1.5low

Earned runs

  • Grayson RodriguezLAA
    4.0± 4.0low
  • Jack KochanowiczLAA
    3.0± 2.9low
  • Reid DetmersLAA
    2.9± 3.1low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

58.5%

ensemble · KC favored

  • Elo Static

    58.0%

    P(KC win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    59.0%

    P(KC win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    57.5%

    P(KC win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.62 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort
  • Bobby Witt Jr.KC · SS
    SPRINT30.399+
  • Mike TroutLAA · CF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Lane ThomasKC · CF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Oswald PerazaLAA · 2B
    SPRINT28.278
  • Nick LoftinKC · 2B
    SPRINT2872