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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+9NYM
NYM

NYM

21-26

16
7
WSH

WSH

23-25

Nationals Park · Washington, District of Columbia
15,901 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

WSH spread

+1.5

open PK · +1.5

Total

O/U 10.0

open O/U 9.5 · +0.5

WSH no-vig %

43.7%

open 43.7%

+2.0-0.5WSH SPREADO/U 11.0O/U 9.0TOTAL47.7%39.7%WSH NO-VIG %May 17, 4 PMMay 18, 12 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = WSH favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

NYM wins

NYM 16 · WSH 7 (by 9)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked WSH +6pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789101112R
NYM010120100011016
WSH0210001100117

Final play

“End of the 12th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+6.7pp

best edge · NYM · DraftKings

NYM

★ best
+148DraftKings

edge +6.7pp · implied 37.9%

WSH

no live price

BookNYMWSHBest edge
DraftKings+148★-195+6.7

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+119

Close price

+119

Open no-vig

43.7%

Close no-vig

43.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

MLB·Mon, May 18·Final/Seriestied 2-2/VegasNYM -125

Recap · MLB

New York Mets went into Washington Nationals and beat them, 16–7. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

NYM -1.5 cashed (won by 9). Total cleared the 10.0 OVER by 13.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NYM · top performer

NYM
Vidal Brujan

Vidal Brujan

SS

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

2

R

1

RBI

WSH · top performer

WSH
Curtis Mead

Curtis Mead

1B

1.250OPS

2-1

AB-H

0

R

1

RBI

MLB · New York Mets at Washington Nationals · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final/12
NYM21-26
16
7
WSH23-25
NYM21-26·WSH23-25
NYM

NYM

21-26

16
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
C. BengeC. Benge★RF
3-66333010
SPRINT28.586
B. BichetteB. Bichette★3B
3-66233110
SPRINT25.716
J. SotoJ. Soto★LF
2-55122021
SPRINT25.513
M. VientosM. Vientos★1B
0-55000001
B. BatyB. Baty★3B
2-66223103
SPRINT26.735
M. SemienM. Semien★2B
1-55112002
A.J. EwingA.J. Ewing★CF
2-66121002
T. TaylorT. Taylor★CF
2-66220000
L. TorrensL. Torrens★C
2-33121000
V. BrujanV. BrujanSS
1-11211000
M. MelendezM. MelendezDH
0-11000000
H. SengerH. SengerC
1-11110000
Team19-5151161916249
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. ScottC. Scott★SP
4.0433350
A. WarrenA. WarrenRP
2.0000110
B. RaleyB. RaleyRP
0.2111200
T. MyersT. MyersRP
1.1211110
L. WeaverL. WeaverRP
1.0100020
H. BrazobanH. BrazobanRP
2.0110210
C. KimbrelC. KimbrelRP
1.0210000
Team12.011759100
WSH

WSH

23-25

7
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. WoodJ. Wood★RF
3-66231012
SPRINT27.457
L. Garcia Jr.L. Garcia Jr.★1B
0-33000000
B. HouseB. House★3B
1-33110010
C. AbramsC. Abrams★SS
2-66121003
SPRINT28.483
D. LileD. Lile★LF
0-66000012
J. YoungJ. Young★CF
0-00000000
J. TenaJ. Tena★DH
1-66111003
SPRINT27.662
J. VivasJ. Vivas★3B
1-55010010
D. MillasD. Millas★C
1-44111010
SPRINT27.354
C. MeadC. Mead1B
1-22011020
N. NunezN. Nunez2B
0-33000000
J. WiemerJ. WiemerRF
1-22112020
SPRINT28.891
Team11-464671170910
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. IrvinJ. Irvin★SP
4.0632161
J. VivasJ. Vivas★3B
0.2433000
P. PoulinP. PoulinRP
1.0111110
M. ParkerM. ParkerRP
3.0211021
O. RibaltaO. RibaltaRP
1.0000000
G. VarlandG. VarlandRP
2.0110100
P. SchultzP. SchultzRP
0.1576100
Team12.0191613492

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

NYM

  • C. Scott
    81 pitches·20% CSW
    • FF
      59%·95.7 mph·14% whiff
    • FC
      22%·89.9 mph·17% whiff
    • ST
      15%·81.6 mph·40% whiff
    • SI
      2%·93.3 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      1%·85.4 mph·0% whiff
  • A. Warren
    28 pitches·32% CSW
    • ST
      54%·84.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      21%·93.0 mph·50% whiff
    • CU
      18%·83.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      7%·92.9 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Myers
    25 pitches·16% CSW
    • FF
      72%·94.4 mph·17% whiff
    • FC
      16%·88.4 mph·— whiff
    • FS
      12%·79.3 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Kimbrel
    24 pitches·21% CSW
    • FF
      83%·93.9 mph·17% whiff
    • ST
      17%·86.6 mph·0% whiff
  • B. Raley
    23 pitches·13% CSW
    • ST
      48%·81.6 mph·13% whiff
    • FC
      30%·86.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      13%·90.7 mph·— whiff
    • CH
      9%·84.5 mph·— whiff
  • H. Brazoban
    22 pitches·36% CSW
    • CH
      50%·91.4 mph·40% whiff
    • SI
      50%·96.6 mph·33% whiff
  • L. Weaver
    19 pitches·37% CSW
    • FF
      53%·95.7 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      42%·88.8 mph·80% whiff
    • FC
      5%·91.3 mph·— whiff

WSH

  • J. Irvin
    74 pitches·28% CSW
    • SI
      32%·93.4 mph·10% whiff
    • FF
      28%·94.6 mph·42% whiff
    • CU
      23%·79.5 mph·33% whiff
    • FC
      12%·91.2 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      3%·85.2 mph·— whiff
    • CH
      1%·87.2 mph·— whiff
  • M. Parker
    42 pitches·31% CSW
    • SL
      50%·83.4 mph·60% whiff
    • FF
      33%·94.6 mph·11% whiff
    • CU
      17%·79.3 mph·0% whiff
  • P. Schultz
    25 pitches·8% CSW
    • FC
      44%·88.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      40%·93.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      12%·85.7 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      4%·85.5 mph·— whiff
  • G. Varland
    19 pitches·26% CSW
    • FF
      63%·94.4 mph·25% whiff
    • SL
      37%·87.8 mph·33% whiff
  • P. Poulin
    16 pitches·31% CSW
    • FF
      63%·90.8 mph·25% whiff
    • SI
      19%·89.7 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      19%·80.1 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Vivas
    12 pitches·8% CSW
    • CU
      83%·43.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      17%·46.1 mph·0% whiff
  • O. Ribalta
    9 pitches·22% CSW
    • FF
      44%·96.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      33%·86.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      22%·96.6 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

19

Hits

11

16

Runs

7

0

Errors

3

Current series

Series tied 2-2

May 18NYMNYM16@WSHWSH7today
May 19NYMNYM6@WSHWSH9
May 20NYMNYM4@WSHWSH8
May 21NYMNYM2@WSHWSH1

Season series

Series tied 2-2

Apr 28WSHWSH0@NYMNYM8
Apr 29WSHWSH14@NYMNYM2
Apr 30WSHWSH5@NYMNYM4
May 18NYMNYM16@WSHWSH7today
May 19NYMNYM6@WSHWSH9
May 20NYMNYM4@WSHWSH8
May 21NYMNYM2@WSHWSH1
Aug 14WSHWSH@NYMNYMupcoming
Aug 15WSHWSH@NYMNYMupcoming
Aug 16WSHWSH@NYMNYMupcoming
Sep 25NYMNYM@WSHWSHupcoming
Sep 26NYMNYM@WSHWSHupcoming
Sep 27NYMNYM@WSHWSHupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

NYM -1.5

Total

10.0

High-scoring · +1.5 vs avg

Moneyline

NYMNYM-12556%
WSHWSH+10449%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet NYM -1.5↗SpreadBet NYM -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

+1.5 since open

Total

10.0

+0.5 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowNYM ↔ WSH

Biggest swing: 35pp · Bottom 8th Inning

NYMNYM
V. Brujan

V. Brujan

SS

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 2 R · 2.000 OPS

C. Scott

C. Scott

SP

Starting pitcher

4.0 IP · 5 K · 3 ER · 4 H · 3 BB

WSHWSH
C. Mead

C. Mead

1B

Batter of the game

1-for-2 · 1.250 OPS

J. Irvin

J. Irvin

SP

Starting pitcher

4.0 IP · 6 K · 2 ER · 6 H · 1 BB

How it ended

NYM beat WSH 16-7. NYM outscored the other side 10-1 in the 12th inning.

Last play

End of the 12th inning

Win probability

WSH vs NYM

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9I10I11I12

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
WSHBottom 8th Inning · 5-5
+35pp→ 62% WP

Mead · doubled to right, Wood scored.

WSHTop 10th Inning · 5-5
+33pp→ 81% WP

Vientos · grounded into double play, second to shortstop to first, Soto out at second.

NYMBottom 10th Inning · 5-5
+17pp→ 34% WP

Nuñez grounded into fielder's choice to first, Mead to second, Wood to third, Vivas out at home.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789101112R
NYM010120100011016
WSH0210001100117

Period scoring

NYM won 3 · WSH won 3

0
0

Inn 1

1
2

Inn 2

Torrens 1

Tena 1

0
1

Inn 3

Wiemer 1

1
0

Inn 4

Baty 1

2
0

Inn 5

Soto 2

0
0

Inn 6

1
1

Inn 7

Bichette 1

Abrams 1

0
1

Inn 8

Mead 1

0
0

Inn 9

0
0

Inn 10

1
1

Inn 11

Semien 1

Wiemer 1

10
1

Inn 12

Benge 3

Wood 1

NYM
WSH

Play-by-play · 853 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 12

    End of the 12th inning

    NYM 16·WSH 7

  2. B12

    · ·

    NYM 16·WSH 7

  3. B12

    Lile popped out to shortstop.

    · ·

    NYM 16·WSH 7

  4. B12

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    NYM 16·WSH 7

  5. B12

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    NYM 16·WSH 7

  6. B12

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    NYM 16·WSH 7

  7. B12

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    NYM 16·WSH 7

  8. B12

    Craig Kimbrel pitches to Daylen Lile

    · ·

    NYM 16·WSH 7

  9. B12

    · ·

    NYM 16·WSH 7

  10. B12

    Abrams doubled to right, Nuñez to third.

    · ·

    NYM 16·WSH 7

  11. B12

    Pitch 8 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    NYM 16·WSH 7

  12. B12

    Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    NYM 16·WSH 7

  13. B12

    Pitch 6 : Ball 3

    · ·

    NYM 16·WSH 7

  14. B12

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    NYM 16·WSH 7

  15. B12

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    · ·

    NYM 16·WSH 7

  16. B12

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    NYM 16·WSH 7

  17. B12

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    NYM 16·WSH 7

  18. B12

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    NYM 16·WSH 7

  19. B12

    Craig Kimbrel pitches to CJ Abrams

    · ·

    NYM 16·WSH 7

  20. B12

    ·

    NYM 16·WSH 7

  21. B12

    Nuñez grounded into fielder's choice to second, Wood out at second.

    · ·

    NYM 16·WSH 7

  22. B12

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    NYM 16·WSH 7

  23. B12

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    NYM 16·WSH 7

  24. B12

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    NYM 16·WSH 7

  25. B12

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    NYM 16·WSH 7

  26. B12

    Craig Kimbrel pitches to Nasim Nunez

    · ·

    NYM 16·WSH 7

  27. B12

    · ·

    NYM 16·WSH 7

  28. B12

    Mead flied out to right.

    · ·

    NYM 16·WSH 7

  29. B12

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    NYM 16·WSH 7

  30. B12

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    NYM 16·WSH 7

Team stats

NYM

Away

Stat

WSH

Home

16

Runs

7

19

Hits

11

0

Errors

3

29

TB

17

2

HR

0

4

BB

9

9

K

10

19

LOB

35

Betting line

NYM -1.5·O/U 10·NYM -125/WSH +104

DraftKings · via ESPN

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort
  • Nasim NunezWSH · 2B
    SPRINT29.899
  • Jacob YoungWSH · CF
    SPRINT29.496
  • Daylen LileWSH · LF
    SPRINT29.395
  • Carson BengeNYM · RF
    SPRINT28.586
  • CJ AbramsWSH · SS
    SPRINT28.483

Player projections

WSH vs NYM.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

123

projections · 71 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Nolan McLeanNYM
    6.7± 2.3low
  • Cade CavalliWSH
    5.9± 4.3low
  • Freddy PeraltaNYM
    5.5± 3.2low

Hits

  • James WoodWSH
    1.3± 1.4high
  • Keibert RuizWSH
    1.3± 0.8high
  • Juan SotoNYM
    1.2± 0.8high

Total bases

  • Juan SotoNYM
    2.7± 2.7high
  • Keibert RuizWSH
    2.4± 2.0high
  • James WoodWSH
    2.3± 2.8high

RBIs

  • Keibert RuizWSH
    1.0± 1.6high
  • Juan SotoNYM
    0.8± 1.1high
  • CJ AbramsWSH
    0.8± 1.2high

Earned runs

  • David PetersonNYM
    2.8± 3.4low
  • Nolan McLeanNYM
    2.8± 2.9low
  • Zack LittellWSH
    2.8± 3.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

55.2%

ensemble · WSH favored

  • Elo Static

    56.0%

    P(WSH win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    53.5%

    P(WSH win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    57.8%

    P(WSH win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.76 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

88% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 26, 26sim 91
    39
    7(H)11
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 19, 26sim 90
    216
    20(H)9
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 16, 26sim 90
    13
    20(H)13
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 9, 26sim 89
    31
    14(H)14
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Mar 28, 26sim 89
    39
    18(H)11
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 5, 26sim 89
    19
    28(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs