
NYM
21-26

WSH
23-25
Line movement
200 snapshots
WSH spread
+1.5
open PK · +1.5
Total
O/U 10.0
open O/U 9.5 · +0.5
WSH no-vig %
43.7%
open 43.7%
Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = WSH favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.
Postgame · final
Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.
Final
NYM wins
NYM 16 · WSH 7 (by 9)
Model verdict
✗ Missed
Picked WSH +6pp
Against the spread
No spread
Line score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYM | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 16 |
| WSH | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
Final play
“End of the 12th inning”
What's next
See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.
21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
Line shopping · 1 book
Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.
+6.7pp
best edge · NYM · DraftKings
NYM
★ bestedge +6.7pp · implied 37.9%
WSH
no live price
| Book | NYM | WSH | Best edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | +148★ | -195 | +6.7 |
Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.
The receipts
0.00
CLV pp
Open price
+119
Close price
+119
Open no-vig
43.7%
Close no-vig
43.7%
Line barely moved · Graded: miss
Recap · MLB
ew York Mets went into Washington Nationals and beat them, 16–7. It was a wire-to-wire rout.
NYM -1.5 cashed (won by 9). Total cleared the 10.0 OVER by 13.0.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
NYM · top performer

Vidal Brujan
SS
1-1
AB-H
2
R
1
RBI
WSH · top performer

Curtis Mead
1B
2-1
AB-H
0
R
1
RBI
MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST


NYM
21-26
| Batting | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K |
| 3-6 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
SPRINT28.586 | ||||||||
| 3-6 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
SPRINT25.716 | ||||||||
| 2-5 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
SPRINT25.513 | ||||||||
| 0-5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| 2-6 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 3 | |
SPRINT26.735 | ||||||||
| 1-5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
| 2-6 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
| 2-6 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2-3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1-1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 0-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1-1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team | 19-51 | 51 | 16 | 19 | 16 | 2 | 4 | 9 |
| Pitching | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR |
| 4.0 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 0 | |
| 2.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| 0.2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1.1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| 2.0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| 1.0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team | 12.0 | 11 | 7 | 5 | 9 | 10 | 0 |
WSH
23-25
| Batting | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K |
| 3-6 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
SPRINT27.457 | ||||||||
| 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1-3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| 2-6 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | |
SPRINT28.483 | ||||||||
| 0-6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1-6 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | |
SPRINT27.662 | ||||||||
| 1-5 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
SPRINT27.354 | ||||||||
| 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1-2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
SPRINT28.891 | ||||||||
| Team | 11-46 | 46 | 7 | 11 | 7 | 0 | 9 | 10 |
| Pitching | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR |
| 4.0 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 1 | |
| 0.2 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| 3.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2.0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 0.1 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team | 12.0 | 19 | 16 | 13 | 4 | 9 | 2 |
Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail
Statcast · via Baseball SavantNYM
WSH
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
19
Hits
11
16
Runs
7
0
Errors
3
Current series
Series tied 2-2
Season series
Series tied 2-2
Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
NYM -1.5
Total
10.0
High-scoring · +1.5 vs avg
Moneyline
Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 200 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
1.5
+1.5 since open
Total
10.0
+0.5 since open
Headlines · top performers
Biggest swing: 35pp · Bottom 8th Inning
V. Brujan
SSBatter of the gamePerfect day
1-for-1 · 2 R · 2.000 OPS
C. Scott
SPStarting pitcher
4.0 IP · 5 K · 3 ER · 4 H · 3 BB
C. Mead
1BBatter of the game
1-for-2 · 1.250 OPS
J. Irvin
SPStarting pitcher
4.0 IP · 6 K · 2 ER · 6 H · 1 BB
How it ended
NYM beat WSH 16-7. NYM outscored the other side 10-1 in the 12th inning.
Last play
End of the 12th inning
Win probability
WSH vs NYM
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactMead · doubled to right, Wood scored.
Vientos · grounded into double play, second to shortstop to first, Soto out at second.
Nuñez grounded into fielder's choice to first, Mead to second, Wood to third, Vivas out at home.
Linescore (innings)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYM | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 16 |
| WSH | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
Period scoring
NYM won 3 · WSH won 3
Inn 1
Inn 2
Torrens 1
Tena 1
Inn 3
Wiemer 1
Inn 4
Baty 1
Inn 5
Soto 2
Inn 6
Inn 7
Bichette 1
Abrams 1
Inn 8
Mead 1
Inn 9
Inn 10
Inn 11
Semien 1
Wiemer 1
Inn 12
Benge 3
Wood 1
Play-by-play · 853 plays
End of the 12th inning
NYM 16·WSH 7
· ·
NYM 16·WSH 7
Lile popped out to shortstop.
· ·
NYM 16·WSH 7
Pitch 4 : Ball In Play
· ·
NYM 16·WSH 7
Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking
· ·
NYM 16·WSH 7
Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking
· ·
NYM 16·WSH 7
Pitch 1 : Ball 1
· ·
NYM 16·WSH 7
Craig Kimbrel pitches to Daylen Lile
· ·
NYM 16·WSH 7
· ·
NYM 16·WSH 7
Abrams doubled to right, Nuñez to third.
· ·
NYM 16·WSH 7
Pitch 8 : Ball In Play
· ·
NYM 16·WSH 7
Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul
· ·
NYM 16·WSH 7
Pitch 6 : Ball 3
· ·
NYM 16·WSH 7
Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul
· ·
NYM 16·WSH 7
Pitch 4 : Ball 2
· ·
NYM 16·WSH 7
Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging
· ·
NYM 16·WSH 7
Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul
· ·
NYM 16·WSH 7
Pitch 1 : Ball 1
· ·
NYM 16·WSH 7
Craig Kimbrel pitches to CJ Abrams
· ·
NYM 16·WSH 7
·
NYM 16·WSH 7
Nuñez grounded into fielder's choice to second, Wood out at second.
· ·
NYM 16·WSH 7
Pitch 4 : Ball In Play
· ·
NYM 16·WSH 7
Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking
· ·
NYM 16·WSH 7
Pitch 2 : Ball 1
· ·
NYM 16·WSH 7
Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging
· ·
NYM 16·WSH 7
Craig Kimbrel pitches to Nasim Nunez
· ·
NYM 16·WSH 7
· ·
NYM 16·WSH 7
Mead flied out to right.
· ·
NYM 16·WSH 7
Pitch 2 : Ball In Play
· ·
NYM 16·WSH 7
Pitch 1 : Ball 1
· ·
NYM 16·WSH 7
Team stats
NYM
Away
Stat
WSH
Home
16
Runs
7
19
Hits
11
0
Errors
3
29
TB
17
2
HR
0
4
BB
9
9
K
10
19
LOB
35
Betting line
NYM -1.5·O/U 10·NYM -125/WSH +104
STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 15 players in cohortPlayer projections
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
123
projections · 71 high confidence
Strikeouts
Hits
Total bases
RBIs
Earned runs
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
55.2%
ensemble · WSH favored
Elo Static
56.0%
P(WSH win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
53.5%
P(WSH win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
57.8%
P(WSH win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
1.76 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
88% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Historical comparables
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs