MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+11KC

LAA

12-16

112

10-17

Kauffman Stadium · Kansas City, Missouri

22,152 attended

Line movement

49 snapshots

KC spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 9.0

open O/U 9.0

KC no-vig %

55.1%

open 55.1%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = KC favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

56.4%

ensemble · KC favored

Elo Static
57.5%
P(KC win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
54.6%
P(KC win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
56.9%
P(KC win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.24 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

92% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-136

Close price

-136

Open no-vig

55.1%

Close no-vig

55.1%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Player projections

KC vs LAA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

122

projections · 71 high confidence

Strikeouts

Reid DetmersLAA
7.0± 4.0low
Jose SorianoLAA
5.6± 1.9medium
Noah CameronKC
5.0± 3.0low

Hits

Kameron MisnerKC
1.5± 0.8low
Jac CaglianoneKC
1.3± 1.4high
Jo AdellLAA
1.3± 1.5high

Total bases

Jac CaglianoneKC
2.0± 2.8high
Jo AdellLAA
1.8± 2.4high
Bobby Witt Jr.KC
1.7± 1.4high

RBIs

Denzer GuzmanLAA
1.0± 1.6low
Carter JensenKC
0.8± 1.1high
Kameron MisnerKC
0.8± 1.3low

Earned runs

Grayson RodriguezLAA
3.8± 3.6low
Michael WachaKC
2.9± 2.7low
Reid DetmersLAA
2.6± 3.0low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

LAA

league avg

.708

OPS

◀

.717

.694

.319

OBP

.319

.316

4.49

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.00

4.62

Team ERA

4.18

▶

4.44

1.43

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.38

9.0

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.1

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

KC wins

LAA 1 · KC 12 (by 11)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked KC +7pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
LAA	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
KC	0	2	2	0	0	1	3	4	12

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
Z. NetoSS	.227	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
M. TroutCF	.234	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
J. AdellRF	.265	4	1	1	1	1	0	1
J. SolerDH	.224	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
O. Peraza2B	.284	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
V. Grissom2B	.357	4	0	3	0	0	0	0
N. Schanuel1B	.222	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
L. O'HoppeC	.205	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
B. TeodosioLF	.200	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
Y. Moncada3B	.186	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
A. Frazier2B	.250	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
T. d'ArnaudC	.125	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. LoweLF	.154	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		35	1	8	1	1	0	14

Player

AVG

RBI

.227

.234

.265

.224

.284

.357

.222

.205

.200

.186

.250

.125

.154

Team

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
W. UrenaSP	3.2	6	4	4	5	3	81
N. SandlinRP	1.1	0	0	0	0	2	19
C. SilsethRP	1.0	2	1	1	2	0	23
S. AndersonRP	1.0	3	3	2	1	1	28
J. RomanoRP	0.2	3	4	4	1	0	36
A. Frazier2B	0.1	1	0	0	1	0	11
Team	8.0	15	12	11	10	6	198

Player

3.2

1.1

1.0

1.0

0.2

0.1

Team

8.0

198

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
C. JensenC	.282	5	0	1	2	0	1	2
B. Witt Jr.SS	.288	5	1	2	0	0	1	0
V. Pasquantino1B	.155	3	1	0	1	0	3	0
S. PerezC	.186	5	2	3	2	1	0	1
J. CaglianoneRF	.256	3	3	1	0	0	2	1
I. CollinsLF	.215	2	2	1	0	0	2	1
M. Massey2B	.262	5	1	2	1	0	0	0
N. Loftin2B	.333	4	2	3	4	0	1	0
K. IsbelCF	.288	4	0	2	0	0	0	1
Team		36	12	15	10	1	10	6

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
C. RagansSP	6.0	5	1	1	0	11	99
D. Lynch IVRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	9
J. SchreiberRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	18
M. BlackRP	1.0	2	0	0	0	2	18
Team	9.0	8	1	1	0	14	144

Team

LAA

—

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

KC vs LAA.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Closing-line value.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

KC vs LAA.

3 sub-models, blended.