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BOT 7TH+6WSH

MIN

16-20

WSH

16-20

Live · model leanBot 7thPolls every 30s

76.1%

WSH wins · current

Pre-game: 52.8% WSH

MIN 2 · 8 WSH

WSH +6

Nationals Park · Washington, District of Columbia

Probable starters

The mound matchup

Combined ERA 11.78

B. Ober

3-1 · 3.55 ERA

M. Mikolas

0-3 · 8.23 ERA

Line movement

200 snapshots

WSH spread

+1.5

open PK · +1.5

Total

O/U 9.5

open O/U 9.5

WSH no-vig %

44.9%

open 44.9%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = WSH favored. Pure CLV joins once moneyline closing-line ingest catches up across leagues.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.9%

ensemble · WSH favored

Elo Static
52.8%
P(WSH win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
48.3%
P(WSH win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
51.7%
P(WSH win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

1.92 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

87% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights are recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen

Live · model intelligence

81% confidence

Win prob · home

99.0%

+46.2ppvs pre-game · WSH favored

Leverage

low

Mostly decided · home ball

Live edge

—

No fresh in-play moneyline. Live edge needs a snapshot in the last 5 minutes.

Live WP recomputes every 30 seconds from current score, time remaining, and possession state. Leverage measures how much the next play could swing the result.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+113

Close price

+113

Open no-vig

44.9%

Close no-vig

44.9%

Line barely moved

Player projections

WSH vs MIN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 72 high confidence

Strikeouts

Taj BradleyMIN
6.5± 3.5low
Jake IrvinWSH
5.6± 2.5low
Connor PrielippMIN
5.0± 1.4low

Hits

Brooks LeeMIN
1.2± 1.2high
Byron BuxtonMIN
1.2± 0.9high
Austin MartinMIN
1.0± 1.1high

Total bases

Byron BuxtonMIN
2.8± 2.4high
Brooks LeeMIN
1.9± 2.4high
Ryan JeffersMIN
1.7± 1.6high

RBIs

Ryan JeffersMIN
0.9± 1.4high
Brooks LeeMIN
0.8± 1.1high
Byron BuxtonMIN
0.8± 1.1high

Earned runs

Zack LittellWSH
3.7± 3.5low
Simeon Woods RichardsonMIN
3.6± 2.3low
Miles MikolasWSH
3.6± 4.7low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

The One modelTossup

● Live

MIN

Twins

16-20

vs52.8%WSH

WSH★

Nationals

16-20

MIN 47.2%win prob52.8% WSH

WSH 1452 · MIN 1457Box score→

MLBWed, May 6Bot 7thSeriesMIN leads series 1-0VegasMIN -126

Updated 0s ago

Tonight's box score

Every player. Every line.

MIN · WSH

MIN

16-20

Player	H-AB	R	RBI	HR	OPS
B. Buxton★CF	0-3	0	0	0	0.000
B. Lee★SS	0-3	0	0	0	0.000
T. Larnach★LF	0-3	0	0	0	0.000
J. Bell★1B	0-3	0	0	0	0.000
K. Clemens★1B	0-2	0	0	0	0.000
V. Caratini★C	0-3	0	0	0	0.000
L. Keaschall★2B	1-2	1	0	0	1.000
M. Wallner★RF	2-2	1	2	1	3.500
T. Gray★3B	0-2	0	0	0	0.000
R. JeffersC	0-1	0	0	0	0.000
Team	3-24	2	2	1	—

Player	IP	H	ER	K
B. Ober★SP	5.0	6	5	3
A. MorrisRP	0.2	2	1	1
K. FunderburkRP	1.0	0	1	2

Team	6.2	9	8	6

WSH

16-20

Player	H-AB	R	RBI	HR	OPS
J. Wood★RF	1-3	1	0	0	0.833
D. Lile★LF	0-3	1	0	0	0.250
C. Mead★1B	0-3	0	0	0	0.250
C. Abrams★SS	2-4	1	1	0	1.000
B. House★3B	2-4	2	3	1	1.750
J. Tena★2B	1-3	1	1	0	0.667
J. Young★CF	1-3	1	0	0	0.667
D. Millas★C	1-3	1	2	1	1.667
N. Nunez★2B	1-3	0	1	0	0.667
Team	9-29	8	8	2	—

Player	IP	H	ER	K
M. Mikolas★SP	5.1	3	2	3
M. ParkerRP	1.2	0	0	1
Team	7.0	3	2	4

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

Hits

Runs

Errors

Current series

MIN leads series 1-0

May 5

MIN11@

WSH3

May 6

MIN@

WSHtoday

May 7

MIN@

WSHupcoming

Season series

MIN leads series 1-0

May 5

MIN11@

WSH3

May 6

MIN@

WSHtoday

May 7

MIN@

WSHupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

MIN -1.5

1.5pt· 6h

Total

9.5

High-scoring · +1.0 vs avg

Moneyline

MIN-12656%

WSH+10549%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet MIN -1.5↗SpreadBet MIN -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

+1.5 since open

Total

9.5

0.0 since open

Pitching matchup · today

ESPN · season stats

MINSP

B. Ober

#17 · 3-1

ERA

3.55

—

Last 3 starts

4/30vs

TOR6.0 IP · 1 ER · 2 KW(3-1)

4/25@

TB6.0 IP · 2 ER · 3 KL(2-1)

4/19vs

CIN6.1 IP · 0 ER · 10 K-

WSHSP

M. Mikolas

#36 · 0-3

ERA

8.23

—

Last 3 starts

4/30@

NYM4.0 IP · 3 ER · 3 K-

4/24@

CHW3.2 IP · 2 ER · 1 K-

4/19vs

SF4.0 IP · 0 ER · 4 K-

Starting lineups

ESPN · 1-9 batting order

MIN4L · 2R · 3S

1
B. Buxton
CF · #25
R
2
B. Lee
SS · #22
B
3
T. Larnach
LF · #9
L
4
J. Bell
DH · #56
B
5
K. Clemens
1B · #2
L
6
V. Caratini
1B · #37
B
7
L. Keaschall
2B · #15
R
8
M. Wallner
RF · #38
L
9
T. Gray
3B · #4
L

WSH4L · 3R · 2S

1
J. Wood
RF · #29
L
2
D. Lile
LF · #4
L
3
C. Mead
1B · #45
R
4
C. Abrams
SS · #5
L
5
B. House
3B · #12
R
6
J. Tena
DH · #8
L
7
J. Young
CF · #30
R
8
D. Millas
C · #14
B
9
N. Nunez
2B · #26
B

Live · top performers so far

Bot 7th

Game flowMIN ↔ WSH

Recent swing: 9pp · Bottom 6th Inning

MIN

M. Wallner

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-2 · 1 HR · 3.500 OPS

B. Ober

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 3 K · 5 ER · 6 H · 2 BB

On pace: 7 IP · 4 K · 7 ER

WSH

B. House

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.750 OPS

M. Mikolas

Starting pitcher

5.1 IP · 3 K · 2 ER · 3 H

On pace: 7 IP · 4 K · 3 ER

How it's going

WSH lead MIN 8-2 (Bot 7th). Millas's play in the bottom 5th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (23pp).

Win probability

WSH vs MIN

Score progression

1 lead change

MIN2

WSH8

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

WSHBottom 4th Inning · 1-1

+17pp→ 65% WP

Abrams · doubled to center, Wood scored, Mead to third.

MINTop 5th Inning · 2-1

+15pp→ 60% WP

Wallner · homered to center (420 feet).

WSHBottom 5th Inning · 2-3

+23pp→ 69% WP

Millas · homered to center (398 feet), Young scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	R
MIN	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	2
WSH	0	0	0	1	2	3	2	8

Period scoring

MIN won 1 · WSH won 4

Inn 1

Inn 2

Inn 3

Wallner 1

Inn 4

Abrams 1

Inn 5

Wallner 1

Millas 2

Inn 6

House 1

Inn 7

House 2

MIN

WSH

Game flow · key plays

B6
House doubled to left, Abrams scored.
MIN 2·WSH 4
+9pp
B5
Millas homered to center (398 feet), Young scored.
MIN 2·WSH 3
+23pp
T5
Wallner homered to center (420 feet).
MIN 2·WSH 1
−15pp
B4
House flied out to center.
MIN 1·WSH 1
−10pp
B4
Abrams doubled to center, Wood scored, Mead to third.
MIN 1·WSH 1
+17pp
T3
Wallner singled to right, Keaschall scored.
MIN 1·WSH 0
−9pp

Team stats

MIN

Away

Stat

WSH

Home

Hits

Errors

Runs

Betting line

MIN -1.5·O/U 9.5·MIN -126/WSH +105

DraftKings · via ESPN

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+113

Close price

+113

Open no-vig

44.9%

Close no-vig

44.9%

Line barely moved

Live · model intelligence

81% confidence

Win prob · home

99.0%

+46.2ppvs pre-game · WSH favored

Leverage

low

Mostly decided · home ball

Live edge

—

No fresh in-play moneyline. Live edge needs a snapshot in the last 5 minutes.

Live WP recomputes every 30 seconds from current score, time remaining, and possession state. Leverage measures how much the next play could swing the result.

Player projections

WSH vs MIN.

126

projections · 72 high confidence

Strikeouts

Taj BradleyMIN
6.5± 3.5low
Jake IrvinWSH
5.6± 2.5low
Connor PrielippMIN
5.0± 1.4low

Hits

Brooks LeeMIN
1.2± 1.2high
Byron BuxtonMIN
1.2± 0.9high
Austin MartinMIN
1.0± 1.1high

Total bases

Byron BuxtonMIN
2.8± 2.4high
Brooks LeeMIN
1.9± 2.4high
Ryan JeffersMIN
1.7± 1.6high

RBIs

Ryan JeffersMIN
0.9± 1.4high
Brooks LeeMIN
0.8± 1.1high
Byron BuxtonMIN
0.8± 1.1high

Earned runs

Zack LittellWSH
3.7± 3.5low
Simeon Woods RichardsonMIN
3.6± 2.3low
Miles MikolasWSH
3.6± 4.7low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

50.9%

ensemble · WSH favored

Elo Static
52.8%
P(WSH win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
48.3%
P(WSH win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
51.7%
P(WSH win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

1.92 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

87% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights are recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen