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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+11PIT
WSH

WSH

7-9

5
16
PIT

PIT

10-6

PNC Park · Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
11,532 attended

Line movement

11 snapshots

PIT spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 7.5

PIT no-vig %

66.9%

open 66.9%

-1.0-2.0PIT SPREADO/U 8.0O/U 7.0TOTAL70.9%62.9%PIT NO-VIG %May 4, 10 AMMay 29, 6 PM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = PIT favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

PIT wins

WSH 5 · PIT 16 (by 11)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked PIT +10pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
WSH1000004005
PIT04100100116

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Mar 28, 26sim 94
    39
    18(H)11
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 1, 26sim 93
    99
    7(H)13
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Mar 29, 26sim 92
    37
    18(H)9
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 23, 26sim 92
    47
    29(H)11
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 16, 26sim 92
    208
    23(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 12, 26sim 92
    39
    17(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+189

Close price

+189

Open no-vig

33.1%

Close no-vig

33.1%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

MLB·Mon, Apr 13·Final/Seriestied 2-2/VegasPIT -232

Recap · MLB

Pittsburgh Pirates held off Washington Nationals, 16–5. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

PIT -1.5 cashed (won by 11). Total cleared the 7.5 OVER by 13.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

WSH · top performer

WSH
CJ Abrams

CJ Abrams

SS

2.500OPS

2-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

PIT · top performer

PIT
Billy Cook

Billy Cook

RF

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MLB · Washington Nationals at Pittsburgh Pirates · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
WSH7-9
5
16
PIT10-6
WSH7-9·PIT10-6
WSH

WSH

7-9

5
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. WoodJ. Wood★RF
1-33010012
L. Garcia Jr.L. Garcia Jr.★1B
0-55000003
C. AbramsC. Abrams★SS
1-22111100
SPRINT28.483
D. LileD. Lile★LF
2-44120001
SPRINT29.395
J. YoungJ. Young★CF
1-44112101
SPRINT29.496
J. TenaJ. Tena★DH
1-33110000
SPRINT27.662
J. VivasJ. Vivas★3B
1-33110010
N. NunezN. Nunez★2B
1-44012000
SPRINT29.899
K. RuizK. Ruiz★C
0-44000001
J. WiemerJ. WiemerRF
0-11000001
SPRINT28.891
C. MeadC. Mead1B
0-22000000
Team8-3535585229
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. CavalliC. Cavalli★SP
1.1344320
P. SchultzP. SchultzRP
2.2211041
J. RutledgeJ. RutledgeRP
1.1677220
B. LordB. LordRP
0.2333111
O. RibaltaO. RibaltaRP
1.0000000
J. WiemerJ. WiemerRF
1.0211100
SPRINT28.891
Team8.0161616792
PIT

PIT

10-6

16
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
O. CruzO. Cruz★CF
2-33323020
SPRINT28.483
B. LoweB. Lowe★2B
3-55235100
SPRINT27.148
B. ReynoldsB. Reynolds★LF
3-44134001
SPRINT27.969
R. O'HearnR. O'Hearn★RF
1-55111003
N. YorkeN. Yorke★3B
0-66000002
S. HorwitzS. Horwitz★1B
2-44221110
SPRINT24.85
K. GriffinK. Griffin★SS
1-44211012
J. MangumJ. Mangum★LF
1-44210010
H. DavisH. Davis★C
2-44320011
SPRINT27.765
B. CookB. CookRF
1-11010000
Team16-4040161616279
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
P. SkenesP. Skenes★SP
6.0111161
J. UrquidyJ. UrquidyRP
1.0644001
E. SiskE. SiskRP
2.0100130
Team9.0855292

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

WSH

  • C. Cavalli
    48 pitches·27% CSW
    • FF
      35%·96.0 mph·0% whiff
    • KC
      31%·85.1 mph·80% whiff
    • SI
      17%·96.9 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      13%·89.7 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      4%·86.3 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Rutledge
    44 pitches·34% CSW
    • FC
      45%·87.5 mph·31% whiff
    • FS
      27%·85.7 mph·75% whiff
    • SI
      27%·94.7 mph·17% whiff
  • P. Schultz
    35 pitches·40% CSW
    • FC
      46%·88.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      37%·86.3 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      14%·93.8 mph·100% whiff
    • SL
      3%·84.8 mph·— whiff
  • B. Lord
    22 pitches·9% CSW
    • FF
      41%·94.3 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      27%·86.2 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      18%·86.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      14%·94.8 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Wiemer
    19 pitches·11% CSW
    • SL
      84%·61.9 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      16%·35.3 mph·— whiff
  • O. Ribalta
    14 pitches·29% CSW
    • SL
      43%·87.4 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      21%·96.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      21%·96.2 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      14%·86.3 mph·— whiff

PIT

  • P. Skenes
    88 pitches·26% CSW
    • CH
      36%·88.8 mph·47% whiff
    • FF
      32%·97.6 mph·11% whiff
    • ST
      19%·83.2 mph·33% whiff
    • CU
      6%·82.0 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      3%·94.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      3%·96.0 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Urquidy
    31 pitches·29% CSW
    • CH
      39%·83.7 mph·29% whiff
    • FF
      19%·91.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      19%·92.0 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      19%·80.6 mph·33% whiff
    • CU
      3%·79.3 mph·— whiff
  • E. Sisk
    31 pitches·32% CSW
    • CU
      58%·76.9 mph·27% whiff
    • SI
      19%·89.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      10%·82.5 mph·50% whiff
    • ST
      10%·79.7 mph·— whiff
    • FF
      3%·90.9 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

8

Hits

16

5

Runs

16

1

Errors

0

Current series

Series tied 2-2

Apr 13WSHWSH5@PITPIT16today
Apr 14WSHWSH5@PITPIT4
Apr 15WSHWSH0@PITPIT2
Apr 16WSHWSH8@PITPIT7

Season series

PIT leads series 1-0

Apr 13WSHWSH5@PITPIT16today
Apr 14WSHWSH5@PITPIT4
Apr 15WSHWSH0@PITPIT2
Apr 16WSHWSH8@PITPIT7
Jul 3PITPIT@WSHWSHupcoming
Jul 4PITPIT@WSHWSHupcoming
Jul 5PITPIT@WSHWSHupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

PIT -1.5

Total

7.5

Defensive · -1.0 vs avg

Moneyline

WSHWSH+18935%
PITPIT-23270%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet PIT -1.5↗SpreadBet PIT -1.5↗

Line movement · 11 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

7.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowWSH ↔ PIT

Biggest swing: 12pp · Bottom 2nd Inning

WSHWSH
C. Abrams

C. Abrams

SS

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-2 · 1 HR · 2.500 OPS

P. Schultz

P. Schultz

RP

Top reliever

2.2 IP · 4 K · 1 ER · 2 H

PITPIT
B. Cook

B. Cook

RF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 2.000 OPS

P. Skenes

P. Skenes

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 6 K · 1 ER · 1 H · 1 BB

How it ended

PIT beat WSH 16-5. PIT outscored the other side 10-0 in the 6th inning.

Win probability

PIT vs WSH

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
WSHTop 1st Inning · 1-0
+10pp→ 43% WP

Abrams · homered to right (379 feet).

PITBottom 2nd Inning · 1-3
+12pp→ 88% WP

Lowe · singled to left, Davis scored and Mangum scored, Cruz to third.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
WSH1000004005
PIT041001001—16

Period scoring

WSH won 2 · PIT won 4

1
0

Inn 1

Abrams 1

0
4

Inn 2

Lowe 2

0
1

Inn 3

Horwitz 1

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
10

Inn 6

Reynolds 3

4
0

Inn 7

Young 2

0
1

Inn 8

Bart 1

0

Inn 9

WSH
PIT

Play-by-play · 656 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    WSH 5·PIT 16

  2. T9

    García Jr. struck out swinging.

    ·

    WSH 5·PIT 16

  3. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    WSH 5·PIT 16

  4. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    WSH 5·PIT 16

  5. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    WSH 5·PIT 16

  6. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    WSH 5·PIT 16

  7. T9

    Evan Sisk pitches to Luis Garcia Jr.

    ·

    WSH 5·PIT 16

  8. T9

    ·

    WSH 5·PIT 16

  9. T9

    Wiemer struck out swinging.

    ·

    WSH 5·PIT 16

  10. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    WSH 5·PIT 16

  11. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    WSH 5·PIT 16

  12. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    WSH 5·PIT 16

  13. T9

    Evan Sisk pitches to Joey Wiemer

    ·

    WSH 5·PIT 16

  14. T9

    ·

    WSH 5·PIT 16

  15. T9

    Ruiz struck out swinging.

    ·

    WSH 5·PIT 16

  16. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    WSH 5·PIT 16

  17. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    WSH 5·PIT 16

  18. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    WSH 5·PIT 16

  19. T9

    Evan Sisk pitches to Keibert Ruiz

    ·

    WSH 5·PIT 16

  20. T9

    Bart as designated hitter.

    WSH 5·PIT 16

  21. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    WSH 5·PIT 16

  22. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    WSH 5·PIT 16

  23. B8

    · ·

    WSH 5·PIT 16

  24. B8

    Yorke flied out to right.

    · ·

    WSH 5·PIT 16

  25. B8

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    WSH 5·PIT 16

  26. B8

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    WSH 5·PIT 16

  27. B8

    Joey Wiemer pitches to Nick Yorke

    · ·

    WSH 5·PIT 16

  28. B8

    · ·

    WSH 5·PIT 16

  29. B8

    Gonzales walked, Lowe to second, Cook to third.

    · ·

    WSH 5·PIT 16

  30. B8

    Pitch 5 : Ball 4

    · ·

    WSH 5·PIT 16

Team stats

WSH

Away

Stat

PIT

Home

5

Runs

16

8

Hits

16

1

Errors

0

15

TB

25

2

HR

2

2

BB

7

9

K

9

8

LOB

21

Betting line

PIT -1.5·O/U 7.5·WSH +189/PIT -232

DraftKings · via ESPN

Player projections

PIT vs WSH.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 77 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Braxton AshcraftPIT
    6.6± 2.1low
  • Paul SkenesPIT
    6.6± 3.3low
  • Cade CavalliWSH
    5.9± 4.3low

Hits

  • James WoodWSH
    1.3± 1.4high
  • Keibert RuizWSH
    1.3± 0.8high
  • Bryan ReynoldsPIT
    1.2± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Keibert RuizWSH
    2.4± 2.0high
  • James WoodWSH
    2.3± 2.8high
  • Bryan ReynoldsPIT
    2.1± 2.0high

RBIs

  • Keibert RuizWSH
    1.0± 1.6high
  • Bryan ReynoldsPIT
    0.8± 0.9high
  • CJ AbramsWSH
    0.8± 1.2high

Earned runs

  • Zack LittellWSH
    2.8± 3.4low
  • Bubba ChandlerPIT
    2.7± 2.3low
  • Mitch KellerPIT
    2.5± 2.6low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

60.5%

ensemble · PIT favored

  • Elo Static

    59.7%

    P(PIT win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    60.5%

    P(PIT win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    58.9%

    P(PIT win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.65 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 17 players in cohort
  • Jacob YoungWSH · CF
    SPRINT29.496
  • Daylen LileWSH · LF
    SPRINT29.395
  • Billy CookPIT · RF
    SPRINT28.992
  • Joey WiemerWSH · RF
    SPRINT28.891
  • Joey WiemerWSH · RF
    SPRINT28.891