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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+2HOU
LAA

LAA

2-1

9
11
HOU

HOU

1-2

Daikin Park · Houston, Texas
30,740 attended

Line movement

7 snapshots

HOU spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 9.0

open O/U 9.0

HOU no-vig %

55.1%

open 55.1%

-1.0-2.0HOU SPREADO/U 9.5O/U 8.5TOTAL59.1%51.1%HOU NO-VIG %MODEL 58.3%May 4, 11 AMMay 28, 3 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = HOU favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

HOU wins

LAA 9 · HOU 11 (by 2)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked HOU +8pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
LAA0012300039
HOU0000380011

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 13, 26sim 94
    205
    23(H)16
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Mar 29, 26sim 94
    37
    18(H)9
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Mar 29, 26sim 91
    3011
    24(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 4, 26sim 91
    246
    6(H)11
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 26, 26sim 91
    39
    7(H)11
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Mar 29, 26sim 91
    96
    1(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-136

Close price

-136

Open no-vig

55.1%

Close no-vig

55.1%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

MLB·Sat, Mar 28·Final/Seriestied 2-2/VegasHOU -136

Recap · MLB

Houston Astros held off Los Angeles Angels, 11–9.

HOU -1.5 cashed (won by 2). Total cleared the 9.0 OVER by 11.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

LAA · top performer

LAA
Jorge Soler

Jorge Soler

DH

2.800OPS

2-1

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

HOU · top performer

HOU
Yordan Alvarez

Yordan Alvarez

DH

1.417OPS

3-2

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

MLB · Los Angeles Angels at Houston Astros · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
LAA2-1
9
11
HOU1-2
LAA2-1·HOU1-2
LAA

LAA

2-1

9
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
Z. NetoZ. Neto★SS
0-33200021
SPRINT27.148
M. TroutM. Trout★CF
1-33211020
SPRINT28.688
N. SchanuelN. Schanuel★1B
1-55113101
SPRINT25.920
J. SolerJ. Soler★DH
1-22112131
SPRINT2622
Y. MoncadaY. Moncada★3B
0-33000001
J. AdellJ. Adell★RF
0-44000000
J. LoweJ. Lowe★LF
0-33000012
L. O'HoppeL. O'Hoppe★C
0-33100001
O. PerazaO. Peraza★2B
3-44231101
SPRINT28.278
Team6-3030967388
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
R. DetmersR. Detmers★SP
4.2633090
W. UrenaW. UrenaSP
1.0460210
J. LucchesiJ. LucchesiRP
0.1322200
B. SuterB. SuterRP
2.0000120
Team8.0131155120
HOU

HOU

1-2

11
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. AltuveJ. Altuve★2B
1-44110012
Y. AlvarezY. Alvarez★DH
2-33120011
I. ParedesI. Paredes★3B
1-44212011
SPRINT25.18
C. CorreaC. Correa★SS
2-55122001
SPRINT27.251
C. WalkerC. Walker★1B
2-44121011
SPRINT25.920
C. SmithC. Smith★RF
1-44110011
Y. DiazY. Diaz★C
1-55112002
SPRINT25.513
J. MeyersJ. Meyers★CF
2-55222001
SPRINT27.867
B. MatthewsB. Matthews★CF
0-22000002
J. LoperfidoJ. LoperfidoLF
1-22110000
Team13-3838111390512
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. JavierC. Javier★SP
4.2466412
K. TengK. TengRP
2.1100120
B. KingB. KingRP
1.0000120
B. AbreuB. AbreuRP
1.0133231
Team9.0699883

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

LAA

  • R. Detmers
    95 pitches·33% CSW
    • FF
      43%·93.6 mph·20% whiff
    • SL
      39%·85.8 mph·28% whiff
    • CU
      9%·72.2 mph·60% whiff
    • CH
      5%·82.3 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      3%·93.6 mph·0% whiff
  • W. Urena
    48 pitches·27% CSW
    • SI
      38%·98.8 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      25%·98.8 mph·14% whiff
    • ST
      23%·87.5 mph·75% whiff
    • CH
      15%·92.5 mph·50% whiff
  • J. Lucchesi
    25 pitches·24% CSW
    • SI
      52%·90.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      32%·76.6 mph·25% whiff
    • FF
      16%·92.1 mph·0% whiff
  • B. Suter
    24 pitches·33% CSW
    • FF
      38%·86.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      29%·88.5 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      21%·76.3 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      13%·77.4 mph·50% whiff

HOU

  • C. Javier
    74 pitches·18% CSW
    • FF
      45%·92.7 mph·16% whiff
    • ST
      22%·79.1 mph·17% whiff
    • CH
      19%·84.5 mph·14% whiff
    • KC
      9%·77.3 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      5%·92.1 mph·0% whiff
  • K. Teng
    39 pitches·31% CSW
    • ST
      41%·85.9 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      26%·94.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      18%·94.5 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      10%·88.8 mph·— whiff
    • CU
      5%·84.0 mph·— whiff
  • B. Abreu
    26 pitches·23% CSW
    • SL
      54%·87.6 mph·17% whiff
    • FF
      46%·95.9 mph·67% whiff
  • B. King
    17 pitches·41% CSW
    • FF
      59%·92.7 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      35%·80.7 mph·67% whiff
    • SI
      6%·90.4 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

6

Hits

13

9

Runs

11

3

Errors

0

Current series

Series tied 2-2

Mar 26LAALAA3@HOUHOU0
Mar 28LAALAA6@HOUHOU2
Mar 28LAALAA9@HOUHOU11today
Mar 29LAALAA7@HOUHOU9

Season series

LAA lead series 2-1

Mar 26LAALAA3@HOUHOU0
Mar 28LAALAA6@HOUHOU2
Mar 28LAALAA9@HOUHOU11today
Mar 29LAALAA7@HOUHOU9
Jun 9HOUHOU@LAALAAupcoming
Jun 10HOUHOU@LAALAAupcoming
Jun 11HOUHOU@LAALAAupcoming
Jul 28HOUHOU@LAALAAupcoming
Jul 29HOUHOU@LAALAAupcoming
Jul 30HOUHOU@LAALAAupcoming
Aug 19LAALAA@HOUHOUupcoming
Aug 20LAALAA@HOUHOUupcoming
Aug 21LAALAA@HOUHOUupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

HOU -1.5

Total

9.0

High-scoring · +0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

LAALAA+11347%
HOUHOU-13658%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet HOU -1.5↗SpreadBet HOU -1.5↗

Line movement · 7 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

9.0

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowLAA ↔ HOU

Biggest swing: 29pp · Bottom 6th Inning

LAALAA
J. Soler

J. Soler

DH

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-2 · 1 HR · 2.800 OPS

R. Detmers

R. Detmers

SP

Starting pitcher

4.2 IP · 9 K · 3 ER · 6 H

HOUHOU
Y. Alvarez

Y. Alvarez

DH

Batter of the game

2-for-3 · 1 R · 1.417 OPS

C. Javier

C. Javier

SP

Starting pitcher

4.2 IP · 1 K · 6 ER · 4 H · 4 BB

How it ended

HOU beat LAA 11-9. HOU outscored the other side 8-0 in the 6th inning.

Win probability

HOU vs LAA

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
LAATop 3rd Inning · 1-0
+13pp→ 56% WP

Peraza · homered to left center (358 feet).

LAATop 4th Inning · 3-0
+18pp→ 80% WP

Soler · homered to left (363 feet), Trout scored.

HOUBottom 6th Inning · 6-6
+29pp→ 63% WP

Correa · reached on infield single to catcher, Alvarez scored on throwing error by catcher O'Hoppe and Loperfido scored, Paredes safe at third on error.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
LAA0012300039
HOU00003800—11

Period scoring

LAA won 2 · HOU won 1

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

1
0

Inn 3

Peraza 1

2
0

Inn 4

Soler 2

3
3

Inn 5

Trout 1

Paredes 2

0
8

Inn 6

Correa 2

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

3

Inn 9

Schanuel 3

LAA
HOU

Play-by-play · 654 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    LAA 9·HOU 11

  2. T9

    Soler struck out looking.

    · ·

    LAA 9·HOU 11

    +1pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Looking

    · ·

    LAA 9·HOU 11

  4. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    LAA 9·HOU 11

  5. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    LAA 9·HOU 11

  6. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    LAA 9·HOU 11

  7. T9

    Bryan Abreu pitches to Jorge Soler

    ·

    LAA 9·HOU 11

  8. T9

    ·

    LAA 9·HOU 11

  9. T9

    Schanuel homered to right (339 feet), Neto scored and Trout scored.

    · ·

    LAA 9·HOU 11

    −0.9pp

  10. T9

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    LAA 9·HOU 11

  11. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    · ·

    LAA 6·HOU 11

  12. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    · ·

    LAA 6·HOU 11

  13. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    LAA 6·HOU 11

  14. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    LAA 6·HOU 11

  15. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    LAA 6·HOU 11

  16. T9

    Bryan Abreu pitches to Nolan Schanuel

    · ·

    LAA 9·HOU 11

  17. T9

    · ·

    LAA 6·HOU 11

  18. T9

    Trout walked.

    · ·

    LAA 6·HOU 11

  19. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 4

    · ·

    LAA 6·HOU 11

  20. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 3

    · ·

    LAA 6·HOU 11

  21. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    LAA 6·HOU 11

  22. T9

    Neto stole second.

    ·

    LAA 6·HOU 11

  23. T9

    Neto stole second.

    ·

    LAA 6·HOU 11

  24. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    LAA 6·HOU 11

  25. T9

    Bryan Abreu pitches to Mike Trout

    · ·

    LAA 6·HOU 11

  26. T9

    ·

    LAA 6·HOU 11

  27. T9

    Neto walked.

    ·

    LAA 6·HOU 11

  28. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 4

    ·

    LAA 6·HOU 11

  29. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 3

    ·

    LAA 6·HOU 11

  30. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    LAA 6·HOU 11

Team stats

LAA

Away

Stat

HOU

Home

9

Runs

11

6

Hits

13

3

Errors

0

15

TB

17

3

HR

0

8

BB

5

8

K

12

14

LOB

24

Betting line

HOU -1.5·O/U 9·LAA +113/HOU -136

DraftKings · via ESPN

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

2 of 16 players in cohort
  • Cam SmithHOU · RF
    SPRINT29.395
  • Mike TroutLAA · CF
    SPRINT28.688

Player projections

HOU vs LAA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

123

projections · 69 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Reid DetmersLAA
    6.7± 4.4low
  • Jose SorianoLAA
    6.6± 2.9low
  • Peter LambertHOU
    5.7± 2.5low

Hits

  • Taylor TrammellHOU
    1.1± 0.8low
  • Zach NetoLAA
    1.1± 1.1high
  • Cam SmithHOU
    1.0± 0.7high

Total bases

  • Yordan AlvarezHOU
    2.3± 3.5high
  • Zach NetoLAA
    2.1± 2.5high
  • Christian WalkerHOU
    2.0± 2.9high

RBIs

  • Vaughn GrissomLAA
    1.0± 1.9high
  • Christian WalkerHOU
    0.9± 1.4high
  • Yordan AlvarezHOU
    0.7± 1.4high

Earned runs

  • Grayson RodriguezLAA
    4.0± 4.0low
  • Mike BurrowsHOU
    3.4± 2.8low
  • Jack KochanowiczLAA
    3.0± 2.9low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

56.6%

ensemble · HOU favored

  • Elo Static

    58.1%

    P(HOU win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    53.6%

    P(HOU win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    58.5%

    P(HOU win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

2.22 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

85% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.