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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+5TEX
PIT

PIT

14-11

1
6
TEX

TEX

13-12

Globe Life Field · Arlington, Texas
24,430 attended

Line movement

27 snapshots

TEX spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 7.5

TEX no-vig %

58.3%

open 58.3%

-1.0-2.0TEX SPREADO/U 8.0O/U 7.0TOTAL62.3%54.3%TEX NO-VIG %May 3, 7 PMMay 30, 7 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = TEX favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TEX wins

PIT 1 · TEX 6 (by 5)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked TEX +4pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
PIT0000100001
TEX002400006

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 22, 26sim 99
    115
    12(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 22, 26sim 98
    231
    13(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 25, 26sim 98
    113
    13(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 25, 26sim 97
    118
    13(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 19, 26sim 97
    132
    12(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 3, 26sim 96
    252
    2(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+129

Close price

+129

Open no-vig

41.7%

Close no-vig

41.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

MLB·Thu, Apr 23·Final/SeriesTEX wins series 2-1/VegasTEX -156

Recap · MLB

Texas Rangers held off Pittsburgh Pirates, 6–1.

TEX -1.5 cashed (won by 5). Total stayed UNDER 7.5 by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

PIT · top performer

PIT
Nick Gonzales

Nick Gonzales

3B

1.333OPS

3-2

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

TEX · top performer

TEX
Corey Seager

Corey Seager

SS

1.750OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

3

RBI

MLB · Pittsburgh Pirates at Texas Rangers · final

MLB · Box scoreADVANCED

Final
PIT14-11
1
6
TEX13-12
PIT14-11·TEX13-12
PIT

PIT

14-11

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
O. CruzO. Cruz★CF
1-44111102
SPRINT28.483
B. LoweB. Lowe★2B
0-44000002
SPRINT27.148
B. ReynoldsB. Reynolds★LF
0-44000002
M. OzunaM. Ozuna★DH
0-44000003
R. O'HearnR. O'Hearn★RF
1-33010011
SPRINT26.735
N. GonzalesN. Gonzales★3B
2-33020000
SPRINT28.586
S. HorwitzS. Horwitz★1B
0-33000010
K. GriffinK. Griffin★SS
0-44000002
J. BartJ. Bart★C
1-33010001
SPRINT26.428
Team5-32321511213
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
B. ChandlerB. Chandler★SP
4.0766342
E. SiskE. SiskRP
2.0000220
J. LawrenceJ. LawrenceRP
1.0100000
Y. RamirezY. RamirezRP
1.0100010
Team8.0966572
TEX

TEX

13-12

6
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
B. NimmoB. Nimmo★RF
2-33020021
SPRINT28.278
J. PedersonJ. Pederson★DH
1-33111001
SPRINT25.716
C. SeagerC. Seager★SS
2-44123101
SPRINT24.96
J. BurgerJ. Burger★1B
0-44000000
J. JungJ. Jung★3B
1-33110000
SPRINT25.920
E. CarterE. Carter★CF
2-44122101
SPRINT28.175
D. JansenD. Jansen★C
0-44000001
J. SmithJ. Smith★2B
0-33100011
A. OsunaA. Osuna★LF
1-22110020
A. McCutchenA. McCutchenDH
0-22000001
Team9-3232696257
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. deGromJ. deGrom★SP
5.25111101
G. CollyerG. CollyerRP
0.1000100
J. BeeksJ. BeeksRP
1.0000020
J. JunisJ. JunisRP
1.0000000
P. GrayP. GrayRP
1.0000010
Team9.05112131

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

5

Hits

9

1

Runs

6

0

Errors

0

Current series

TEX wins series 2-1

Apr 22PITPIT1@TEXTEX5
Apr 23PITPIT8@TEXTEX4
Apr 24PITPIT1@TEXTEX6today

Season series

TEX wins series 2-1

Apr 22PITPIT1@TEXTEX5
Apr 23PITPIT8@TEXTEX4
Apr 24PITPIT1@TEXTEX6today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

TEX -1.5

Total

7.5

Defensive · -1.0 vs avg

Moneyline

PITPIT+12944%
TEXTEX-15661%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet TEX -1.5↗SpreadBet TEX -1.5↗

Line movement · 27 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

7.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowPIT ↔ TEX

Biggest swing: 22pp · Bottom 3rd Inning

PITPIT
N. Gonzales

N. Gonzales

3B

Batter of the game

2-for-3 · 1.333 OPS

B. Chandler

B. Chandler

SP

Starting pitcher

4.0 IP · 4 K · 6 ER · 7 H · 3 BB

TEXTEX
C. Seager

C. Seager

SS

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.750 OPS

J. deGrom

J. deGrom

SP

Starting pitcher10-K game

5.2 IP · 10 K · 1 ER · 5 H · 1 BB

How it ended

TEX beat PIT 6-1. Carter's play in the bottom 3rd inning drove the biggest swing of the night (22pp).

Win probability

TEX vs PIT

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
PITBottom 1st Inning · 0-0
+6pp→ 46% WP

Carter · struck out looking.

TEXBottom 3rd Inning · 0-2
+22pp→ 78% WP

Carter · homered to center (385 feet), Jung scored.

TEXBottom 4th Inning · 0-3
+7pp→ 91% WP

Pederson · singled to right, Smith scored, Osuna to third.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
PIT0000100001
TEX00240000—6

Period scoring

PIT won 1 · TEX won 2

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
2

Inn 3

Carter 2

0
4

Inn 4

Seager 3

1
0

Inn 5

Cruz 1

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

PIT
TEX

Play-by-play · 539 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    PIT 1·TEX 6

  2. T9

    Griffin struck out swinging.

    ·

    PIT 1·TEX 6

  3. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    PIT 1·TEX 6

  4. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    PIT 1·TEX 6

  5. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    PIT 1·TEX 6

  6. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    PIT 1·TEX 6

  7. T9

    Peyton Gray pitches to Konnor Griffin

    ·

    PIT 1·TEX 6

  8. T9

    ·

    PIT 1·TEX 6

  9. T9

    Horwitz flied out to left.

    ·

    PIT 1·TEX 6

  10. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    ·

    PIT 1·TEX 6

  11. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 3

    ·

    PIT 1·TEX 6

  12. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    PIT 1·TEX 6

  13. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    PIT 1·TEX 6

  14. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    PIT 1·TEX 6

  15. T9

    Peyton Gray pitches to Spencer Horwitz

    ·

    PIT 1·TEX 6

  16. T9

    ·

    PIT 1·TEX 6

  17. T9

    Gonzales grounded out to shortstop.

    ·

    PIT 1·TEX 6

  18. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    ·

    PIT 1·TEX 6

  19. T9

    Peyton Gray pitches to Nick Gonzales

    ·

    PIT 1·TEX 6

  20. T9

    Gray relieved Junis

    ·

    PIT 1·TEX 6

  21. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    PIT 1·TEX 6

  22. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    PIT 1·TEX 6

  23. B8

    · ·

    PIT 1·TEX 6

  24. B8

    McCutchen struck out swinging.

    · ·

    PIT 1·TEX 6

  25. B8

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    PIT 1·TEX 6

  26. B8

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    PIT 1·TEX 6

  27. B8

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    PIT 1·TEX 6

  28. B8

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    PIT 1·TEX 6

  29. B8

    Yohan Ramirez pitches to Andrew McCutchen

    · ·

    PIT 1·TEX 6

  30. B8

    ·

    PIT 1·TEX 6

Team stats

PIT

Away

Stat

TEX

Home

1

Runs

6

5

Hits

9

0

Errors

0

8

TB

16

1

HR

2

2

BB

5

13

K

7

11

LOB

14

Betting line

TEX -1.5·O/U 7.5·PIT +129/TEX -156

DraftKings · via ESPN

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort
  • Konnor GriffinPIT · SS
    SPRINT29.899
  • Nick GonzalesPIT · 3B
    SPRINT28.586
  • Oneil CruzPIT · CF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Brandon NimmoTEX · RF
    SPRINT28.278
  • Evan CarterTEX · CF
    SPRINT28.175

Player projections

TEX vs PIT.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 81 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Braxton AshcraftPIT
    6.6± 2.1low
  • Paul SkenesPIT
    6.6± 3.3low
  • Jacob deGromTEX
    6.3± 3.6low

Hits

  • Bryan ReynoldsPIT
    1.2± 0.9high
  • Brandon LowePIT
    1.1± 0.9high
  • Konnor GriffinPIT
    1.1± 1.2high

Total bases

  • Bryan ReynoldsPIT
    2.1± 2.0high
  • Brandon LowePIT
    2.0± 1.7high
  • Brandon NimmoTEX
    1.9± 2.4high

RBIs

  • Ezequiel DuranTEX
    0.9± 1.4high
  • Bryan ReynoldsPIT
    0.8± 0.9high
  • Brandon LowePIT
    0.6± 1.0high

Earned runs

  • Jack LeiterTEX
    3.0± 2.4low
  • Bubba ChandlerPIT
    2.7± 2.3low
  • Nathan EovaldiTEX
    2.6± 3.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

53.3%

ensemble · TEX favored

  • Elo Static

    54.0%

    P(TEX win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    55.3%

    P(TEX win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    53.8%

    P(TEX win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.66 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.