Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in ATH at SEA?

The model favors ATH, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Athletics vs Seattle Mariners: Final Score & Box Score — Apr 21, 2026

FINAL+3ATH

ATH

13-11

SEA

10-15

T-Mobile Park · Seattle, Washington

19,092 attended

Line movement

36 snapshots

SEA spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.0

SEA no-vig %

60.6%

open 60.6%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = SEA favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Logged before first pitch · graded in public

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

55.0%

ensemble · SEA favored

Elo Static
54.5%
P(SEA win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
56.3%
P(SEA win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
53.6%
P(SEA win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.12 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

93% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+143

Close price

+143

Open no-vig

39.4%

Close no-vig

39.4%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in ATH at SEA?: The model favors ATH, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Player projections

SEA vs ATH.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

123

projections · 93 high confidence

Strikeouts

Logan GilbertSEA
6.4± 2.4medium
Bryan WooSEA
6.1± 3.6medium
Bryce MillerSEA
6.1± 2.8low

Hits

Nick KurtzATH
1.2± 0.8high
Zack GelofATH
1.2± 0.5high
Randy ArozarenaSEA
1.1± 1.1high

Total bases

Nick KurtzATH
2.5± 2.7high
Zack GelofATH
2.3± 1.6high
Dominic CanzoneSEA
2.0± 2.5high

RBIs

Nick KurtzATH
1.0± 1.7high
Max MuncyATH
0.7± 1.2high
Dominic CanzoneSEA
0.7± 1.1high

Earned runs

Jeffrey SpringsATH
3.4± 2.0medium
Bryan WooSEA
2.9± 3.5medium
George KirbySEA
2.9± 1.6medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

ATH

league avg

SEA

.749

OPS

◀

.718

.700

.329

OBP

◀

.319

.313

4.67

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.13

5.00

Team ERA

4.18

▶

3.62

1.45

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.18

8.4

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.9

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

ATH wins

ATH 5 · SEA 2 (by 3)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked SEA +4pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
ATH	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0	1	5
SEA	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	2

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
N. Kurtz1B	.228	4	2	1	0	0	1	1
S. LangeliersC	.312	4	1	2	1	1	1	1
C. CortesRF	.319	5	0	1	0	0	0	1
T. SoderstromLF	.226	4	1	2	1	0	1	0
J. WilsonSS	.270	5	0	2	2	0	0	1
J. McNeil2B	.278	5	1	2	1	1	0	1
M. Muncy3B	.262	5	0	2	0	0	0	2
L. ButlerRF	.200	3	0	0	0	0	1	2
Z. Gelof3B	.188	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
Team		39	5	13	5	2	4	10

Player

.228

.312

.319

.226

.270

.278

.262

.200

.188

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. LopezSP	5.1	7	2	2	2	1	86
S. BarlowRP	1.1	1	0	0	1	2	26
H. HarrisRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	8
J. PerkinsRP	2.0	0	0	0	0	2	26
Team	9.0	8	2	2	3	5	146

Player

5.1

1.1

0.1

2.0

Team

9.0

146

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. RefsnyderDH	.074	3	1	1	0	0	0	0
C. RaleighC	.177	3	1	2	1	1	1	0
J. RodriguezCF	.237	3	0	2	0	0	1	0
J. Naylor1B	.170	2	0	0	1	0	1	0
R. ArozarenaLF	.278	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
J.P. CrawfordSS	.182	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. GarverC	.130	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
C. Young2B	.244	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
L. Rivas3B	.143	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
L. RaleyRF	.296	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
D. CanzoneDH	.269	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		33	2	8	2	1	3	5

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. CastilloSP	5.0	5	2	2	2	6	95
E. BazardoRP	1.0	2	1	1	0	1	27
G. SpeierRP	1.0	2	1	1	0	0	9
C. WilcoxRP	2.0	4	1	1	2	3	45
Team	9.0	13	5	5	4	10	176

Team

ATH

SEA

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

SEA vs ATH.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Closing-line value.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

SEA vs ATH.

3 sub-models, blended.