Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in TEX at SEA?

The model favors TEX, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Texas Rangers vs Seattle Mariners: Final Score & Box Score — Apr 19, 2026

FINAL+3SEA

TEX

11-11

SEA

10-13

T-Mobile Park · Seattle, Washington

35,474 attended

Line movement

24 snapshots

SEA spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 7.5

SEA no-vig %

56.3%

open 56.3%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = SEA favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Logged before first pitch · graded in public

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

52.8%

ensemble · SEA favored

Elo Static
53.1%
P(SEA win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
53.3%
P(SEA win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
52.7%
P(SEA win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.25 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+119

Close price

+119

Open no-vig

43.7%

Close no-vig

43.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in TEX at SEA?: The model favors TEX, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Player projections

SEA vs TEX.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 93 high confidence

Strikeouts

Logan GilbertSEA
6.4± 2.4medium
Jacob deGromTEX
6.4± 2.5medium
Nathan EovaldiTEX
6.2± 2.3medium

Hits

Wyatt LangfordTEX
1.4± 1.1high
Brandon NimmoTEX
1.2± 1.1high
Randy ArozarenaSEA
1.1± 1.1high

Total bases

Wyatt LangfordTEX
2.6± 2.3high
Dominic CanzoneSEA
2.0± 2.5high
Brandon NimmoTEX
1.8± 1.7high

RBIs

Wyatt LangfordTEX
0.8± 1.0high
Dominic CanzoneSEA
0.7± 1.1high
Colt EmersonSEA
0.6± 1.0high

Earned runs

Bryan WooSEA
2.9± 3.5medium
George KirbySEA
2.9± 1.6medium
Nathan EovaldiTEX
2.9± 2.3medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

TEX

league avg

SEA

.708

OPS

◀

.719

.700

.319

OBP

◀

.319

.312

4.01

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.11

3.96

Team ERA

4.18

▶

3.59

1.25

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.18

8.6

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.9

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

SEA wins

TEX 2 · SEA 5 (by 3)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked SEA +3pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
TEX	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	2
SEA	1	2	0	0	2	0	0	0	5

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. NimmoRF	.311	4	0	2	0	0	0	0
C. SeagerSS	.200	3	1	0	0	0	1	2
W. LangfordLF	.241	4	1	1	0	0	0	1
J. Burger1B	.250	4	0	0	0	0	0	3
J. PedersonDH	.229	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. Jung3B	.290	3	0	0	1	0	0	2
E. CarterCF	.190	4	0	1	1	0	0	0
J. Smith2B	.185	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
D. JansenC	.220	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
S. HaggertyLF	.154	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
K. HigashiokaC	.241	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		31	2	5	2	0	1	11

Player

.311

.200

.241

.250

.229

.290

.190

.185

.220

.154

.241

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. GoreSP	5.0	7	5	5	1	5	90
T. AlexanderRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	12
J. BeeksRP	0.2	1	0	0	0	1	15
G. CollyerRP	0.1	0	0	0	1	0	7
J. JunisRP	1.0	0	0	0	2	0	21
Team	8.0	8	5	5	4	7	145

Player

5.0

1.0

0.2

0.1

1.0

Team

8.0

145

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. RefsnyderDH	.045	4	1	1	1	1	0	0
C. RaleighC	.159	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
J. RodriguezCF	.209	3	1	1	0	0	1	0
R. ArozarenaLF	.293	4	1	2	2	1	0	1
M. GarverC	.105	3	1	0	0	0	1	1
C. JoeRF	.125	3	0	1	0	0	1	1
J.P. CrawfordSS	.213	3	1	1	2	1	1	1
C. Young2B	.244	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
L. Rivas3B	.143	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
L. RaleyRF	.313	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		32	5	8	5	3	4	7

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. WooSP	7.0	4	2	2	1	6	85
G. SpeierRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	18
A. MunozRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	17
Team	9.0	5	2	2	1	11	120

Team

TEX

SEA

—

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

SEA vs TEX.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Closing-line value.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

SEA vs TEX.

3 sub-models, blended.