MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+3BOS

2-5

BOS

2-5

Fenway Park · Boston, Massachusetts

36,233 attended

Line movement

16 snapshots

BOS spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.0

BOS no-vig %

54.3%

open 54.3%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = BOS favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

55.4%

ensemble · BOS favored

Elo Static
55.0%
P(BOS win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
55.5%
P(BOS win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
56.2%
P(BOS win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.50 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

BOS vs SD.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

123

projections · 76 high confidence

Strikeouts

Payton TolleBOS
6.0± 3.9low
Ranger SuarezBOS
5.7± 3.7low
Connelly EarlyBOS
5.2± 2.3low

Hits

Willson ContrerasBOS
1.4± 1.3high
Ceddanne RafaelaBOS
1.3± 1.1high
Fernando Tatis Jr.SD
1.3± 1.2high

Total bases

Willson ContrerasBOS
3.0± 3.1high
Ceddanne RafaelaBOS
2.1± 2.4high
Wilyer AbreuBOS
1.9± 2.5high

RBIs

Samad TaylorSD
1.0± 1.8low
Willson ContrerasBOS
0.9± 1.1high
Ceddanne RafaelaBOS
0.7± 1.3high

Earned runs

Griffin CanningSD
3.8± 3.1low
Jake BennettBOS
3.0± 2.3low
Yu DarvishSD
2.6± 1.2medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

league avg

BOS

.658

OPS

.717

▶

.698

.293

OBP

.319

▶

.314

3.89

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.03

3.91

Team ERA

4.18

3.91

1.29

WHIP

1.31

1.29

8.5

K / 9

8.5

8.6

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

BOS wins

SD 2 · BOS 5 (by 3)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked BOS +5pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
SD	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	2
BOS	0	0	1	1	0	3	0	0	5

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
F. Tatis Jr.RF	.200	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
X. BogaertsSS	.143	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. MerrillCF	.185	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. Machado3B	.182	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
R. LaureanoLF	.318	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. AndujarDH	.200	3	1	1	0	0	0	1
G. Sheets1B	.250	3	1	2	1	0	0	0
J. Cronenworth2B	.167	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
L. CampusanoC	.143	2	0	1	1	0	0	0
B. JohnsonRF	.200	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
F. FerminC	.071	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		31	2	4	2	0	1	6

Player

AVG

RBI

.200

.143

.185

.182

.318

.200

.250

.167

.143

.200

.071

Team

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
M. KingSP	5.2	7	4	4	1	5	81
W. PeraltaRP	1.1	2	1	1	0	2	20
R. MarinaccioRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	10
Team	8.0	9	5	5	1	8	111

Player

M. KingSP

5.2

W. PeraltaRP

1.1

R. MarinaccioRP

1.0

Team

8.0

111

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
R. AnthonyLF	.231	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
T. StorySS	.121	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. DuranLF	.182	4	1	1	0	0	0	0
W. Contreras1B	.174	3	1	1	1	1	1	1
W. AbreuRF	.393	4	1	1	0	0	0	2
C. Durbin3B	.045	4	0	1	1	0	0	1
M. Mayer2B	.294	2	2	2	2	1	0	0
C. NarvaezC	.417	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
C. RafaelaCF	.227	3	0	1	1	0	0	1
Team		31	5	9	5	2	1	8

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
S. GraySP	6.0	4	2	2	0	3	87
G. WeissertRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	17
J. SlatenRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	9
A. ChapmanRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	21
Team	9.0	4	2	2	1	6	134

Team

BOS

—

3 sub-models, blended.

BOS vs SD.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

BOS vs SD.

3 sub-models, blended.