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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+4TEX
PIT

PIT

13-10

1
5
TEX

TEX

12-11

Globe Life Field · Arlington, Texas
23,910 attended

Line movement

24 snapshots

TEX spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.0

TEX no-vig %

51.1%

open 51.1%

+2.0+1.0TEX SPREADO/U 8.5O/U 7.5TOTAL55.1%47.1%TEX NO-VIG %MODEL 53.1%May 3, 7 PMMay 30, 4 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = TEX favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TEX wins

PIT 1 · TEX 5 (by 4)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked TEX +4pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
PIT1000000001
TEX020030005

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 22, 26sim 99
    115
    12(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 24, 26sim 98
    231
    13(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 27, 26sim 97
    303
    5(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 26, 26sim 96
    52
    14(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 2, 26sim 96
    73
    12(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 17, 26sim 96
    301
    23(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Tue, Apr 21·Final/SeriesTEX wins series 2-1/VegasTEX -115

Recap · MLB

Texas Rangers held off Pittsburgh Pirates, 5–1.

TEX +1.5 cashed (PIT lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 8.0 by 2.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

PIT · top performer

PIT
Nick Gonzales

Nick Gonzales

3B

1.000OPS

4-2

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

TEX · top performer

TEX
Josh Smith

Josh Smith

2B

1.167OPS

2-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · Pittsburgh Pirates at Texas Rangers · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
PIT13-10
1
5
TEX12-11
PIT13-10·TEX12-11
PIT

PIT

13-10

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
O. CruzO. Cruz★CF
1-44110001
SPRINT28.483
R. O'HearnR. O'Hearn★RF
1-44011001
SPRINT26.735
B. ReynoldsB. Reynolds★LF
0-33000012
SPRINT27.969
M. OzunaM. Ozuna★DH
0-44000002
N. YorkeN. Yorke★3B
0-44000000
N. GonzalesN. Gonzales★3B
2-44020002
SPRINT28.586
J. MangumJ. Mangum★LF
2-44020000
SPRINT2993
K. GriffinK. Griffin★SS
0-33000000
H. DavisH. Davis★C
0-33000001
Team6-3333161019
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. MlodzinskiC. Mlodzinski★SP
4.1655260
W. DotelW. DotelRP
1.2100300
J. LawrenceJ. LawrenceRP
1.0000020
E. SiskE. SiskRP
1.0100020
Team8.08555100
TEX

TEX

12-11

5
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
B. NimmoB. Nimmo★RF
0-55000001
W. LangfordW. Langford★LF
0-11000011
C. SeagerC. Seager★SS
1-44111001
SPRINT24.96
J. BurgerJ. Burger★1B
1-44010001
J. PedersonJ. Pederson★DH
1-33110012
SPRINT25.716
J. JungJ. Jung★3B
1-33111010
SPRINT25.920
E. CarterE. Carter★CF
1-33011011
D. JansenD. Jansen★C
1-44010002
J. SmithJ. Smith★2B
1-22111011
SPRINT27.354
E. DuranE. Duran2B
1-22111000
SPRINT28.891
Team8-31315850510
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
K. RockerK. Rocker★SP
6.0411150
C. WinnC. WinnRP
1.0100020
J. LatzJ. LatzRP
1.0000020
J. JunisJ. JunisRP
1.0100000
Team9.0611190

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

PIT

No arsenal data yet for this team’s pitchers.

TEX

  • C. Winn
    19 pitches·16% CSW
    • FF
      63%·95.3 mph·22% whiff
    • SL
      21%·85.3 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      11%·90.5 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      5%·86.5 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

6

Hits

8

1

Runs

5

0

Errors

2

Current series

TEX wins series 2-1

Apr 22PITPIT1@TEXTEX5today
Apr 23PITPIT8@TEXTEX4
Apr 24PITPIT1@TEXTEX6

Season series

TEX leads series 1-0

Apr 22PITPIT1@TEXTEX5today
Apr 23PITPIT8@TEXTEX4
Apr 24PITPIT1@TEXTEX6

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

PIT -1.5

Total

8.0

Defensive · -0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

PITPIT-10551%
TEXTEX-11553%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet PIT -1.5↗SpreadBet PIT -1.5↗

Line movement · 24 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

8.0

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowPIT ↔ TEX

Biggest swing: 15pp · Bottom 5th Inning

PITPIT
N. Gonzales

N. Gonzales

3B

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1.000 OPS

C. Mlodzinski

C. Mlodzinski

SP

Starting pitcher

4.1 IP · 6 K · 5 ER · 6 H · 2 BB

TEXTEX
J. Smith

J. Smith

2B

Batter of the game

1-for-2 · 1 R · 1.167 OPS

K. Rocker

K. Rocker

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 5 K · 1 ER · 4 H · 1 BB

How it ended

TEX beat PIT 5-1.

Win probability

TEX vs PIT

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
PITTop 1st Inning · 1-0
+9pp→ 70% WP

O'Hearn · singled to center, Cruz scored.

TEXBottom 2nd Inning · 1-0
+12pp→ 54% WP

Jung · doubled to center, Pederson to third.

TEXBottom 5th Inning · 1-2
+15pp→ 77% WP

Smith · doubled to right.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
PIT1000000001
TEX02003000—5

Period scoring

PIT won 1 · TEX won 2

1
0

Inn 1

O'Hearn 1

0
2

Inn 2

Carter 1

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
3

Inn 5

Duran 1

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

PIT
TEX

Play-by-play · 548 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    PIT 1·TEX 5

  2. T9

    Mangum flied out to left.

    · ·

    PIT 1·TEX 5

  3. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    PIT 1·TEX 5

  4. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    PIT 1·TEX 5

  5. T9

    Jakob Junis pitches to Jake Mangum

    · ·

    PIT 1·TEX 5

  6. T9

    ·

    PIT 1·TEX 5

  7. T9

    Gonzales singled to center.

    ·

    PIT 1·TEX 5

  8. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    PIT 1·TEX 5

  9. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    PIT 1·TEX 5

  10. T9

    Jakob Junis pitches to Nick Gonzales

    ·

    PIT 1·TEX 5

  11. T9

    ·

    PIT 1·TEX 5

  12. T9

    Yorke grounded out to third.

    ·

    PIT 1·TEX 5

  13. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    PIT 1·TEX 5

  14. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    PIT 1·TEX 5

  15. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    PIT 1·TEX 5

  16. T9

    Jakob Junis pitches to Nick Yorke

    ·

    PIT 1·TEX 5

  17. T9

    ·

    PIT 1·TEX 5

  18. T9

    Ozuna popped out to second.

    ·

    PIT 1·TEX 5

    +0.8pp

  19. T9

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    ·

    PIT 1·TEX 5

  20. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    PIT 1·TEX 5

  21. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 1

    ·

    PIT 1·TEX 5

  22. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    PIT 1·TEX 5

  23. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    PIT 1·TEX 5

  24. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    PIT 1·TEX 5

  25. T9

    Jakob Junis pitches to Marcell Ozuna

    ·

    PIT 1·TEX 5

  26. T9

    Junis relieved Latz

    ·

    PIT 1·TEX 5

  27. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    PIT 1·TEX 5

  28. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    PIT 1·TEX 5

  29. B8

    · ·

    PIT 1·TEX 5

  30. B8

    Nimmo struck out looking.

    · ·

    PIT 1·TEX 5

Team stats

PIT

Away

Stat

TEX

Home

1

Runs

5

6

Hits

8

0

Errors

2

6

TB

12

0

HR

0

1

BB

5

9

K

10

14

LOB

18

Betting line

PIT -1.5·O/U 8·PIT -105/TEX -115

DraftKings · via ESPN

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-115

Close price

-115

Open no-vig

51.1%

Close no-vig

51.1%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort
  • Konnor GriffinPIT · SS
    SPRINT29.899
  • Jake MangumPIT · LF
    SPRINT2993
  • Ezequiel DuranTEX · 2B
    SPRINT28.891
  • Nick GonzalesPIT · 3B
    SPRINT28.586
  • Oneil CruzPIT · CF
    SPRINT28.483

Player projections

TEX vs PIT.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 81 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Braxton AshcraftPIT
    6.6± 2.1low
  • Paul SkenesPIT
    6.6± 3.3low
  • Jacob deGromTEX
    6.3± 3.6low

Hits

  • Bryan ReynoldsPIT
    1.2± 0.9high
  • Brandon LowePIT
    1.1± 0.9high
  • Konnor GriffinPIT
    1.1± 1.2high

Total bases

  • Bryan ReynoldsPIT
    2.1± 2.0high
  • Brandon LowePIT
    2.0± 1.7high
  • Brandon NimmoTEX
    1.9± 2.4high

RBIs

  • Ezequiel DuranTEX
    0.9± 1.4high
  • Bryan ReynoldsPIT
    0.8± 0.9high
  • Brandon LowePIT
    0.6± 1.0high

Earned runs

  • Jack LeiterTEX
    3.0± 2.4low
  • Bubba ChandlerPIT
    2.7± 2.3low
  • Nathan EovaldiTEX
    2.6± 3.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

52.9%

ensemble · TEX favored

  • Elo Static

    54.2%

    P(TEX win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    54.0%

    P(TEX win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    54.0%

    P(TEX win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.09 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

99% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.