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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1DET
MIL

MIL

13-11

4
5
DET

DET

14-12

Comerica Park · Detroit, Michigan
25,224 attended

Line movement

33 snapshots

DET spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 7.0

open O/U 7.0

DET no-vig %

66.9%

open 66.9%

-1.0-2.0DET SPREADO/U 7.5O/U 6.5TOTAL70.9%62.9%DET NO-VIG %May 3, 7 PMMay 30, 7 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = DET favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

DET wins

MIL 4 · DET 5 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked MIL +2pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
MIL0001003004
DET2000010115

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+189

Close price

+189

Open no-vig

33.1%

Close no-vig

33.1%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

MLB·Thu, Apr 23·Final/SeriesDET wins series 2-1/VegasDET -233

Recap · MLB

Detroit Tigers held off Milwaukee Brewers, 5–4. It came down to the final possession.

MIL +1.5 cashed (DET won by 1). Total cleared the 7.0 OVER by 2.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

MIL · top performer

MIL
Sal Frelick

Sal Frelick

RF

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

DET · top performer

DET
Jahmai Jones

Jahmai Jones

DH

5.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · Milwaukee Brewers at Detroit Tigers · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
MIL13-11
4
5
DET14-12
MIL13-11·DET14-12
MIL

MIL

13-11

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
B. LockridgeB. Lockridge★LF
1-33010012
B. TurangB. Turang★2B
0-44000001
W. ContrerasW. Contreras★C
1-44110000
SPRINT24.96
G. SanchezG. Sanchez★DH
2-44121001
SPRINT24.12
L. MatosL. Matos★RF
1-33110000
B. PerkinsB. Perkins★CF
1-33112000
SPRINT28.586
L. RengifoL. Rengifo★3B
0-33000000
J. OrtizJ. Ortiz★SS
1-33010011
D. HamiltonD. Hamilton★SS
2-44021000
SPRINT29.294
G. MitchellG. MitchellCF
0-11000001
S. FrelickS. FrelickRF
1-11010000
Team10-33334104026
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
B. SproatB. Sproat★SP
5.1433241
A. AshbyA. AshbyRP
0.1100100
G. AndersonG. AndersonRP
0.1000010
T. MegillT. MegillRP
1.0000000
A. ZerpaA. ZerpaRP
1.0111021
A. UribeA. UribeRP
0.1111011
Team8.1755383
DET

DET

14-12

5
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
K. McGonigleK. McGonigle★SS
1-44110001
SPRINT28.278
G. TorresG. Torres★2B
0-44000001
C. KeithC. Keith★3B
0-22100010
R. GreeneR. Greene★LF
2-33122111
SPRINT2744
D. DinglerD. Dingler★C
1-44011001
SPRINT27.765
K. CarpenterK. Carpenter★RF
0-22000001
S. TorkelsonS. Torkelson★1B
1-44111102
SPRINT26.123
W. PerezW. Perez★RF
0-33000000
J. BaezJ. Baez★SS
1-33010000
J. JonesJ. JonesDH
1-11111100
SPRINT28.278
M. VierlingM. VierlingCF
0-11000011
Team7-3131575338
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
T. SkubalT. Skubal★SP
6.0744050
T. HoltonT. HoltonRP
1.0200100
B. SmithB. SmithRP
1.1100110
B. HurterB. HurterRP
0.2000000
Team9.01044260

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

MIL

  • B. Sproat
    76 pitches·29% CSW
    • FC
      28%·92.8 mph·25% whiff
    • SI
      22%·96.0 mph·20% whiff
    • CU
      18%·82.6 mph·60% whiff
    • FF
      13%·96.7 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      13%·86.5 mph·40% whiff
    • CH
      5%·91.0 mph·0% whiff
  • A. Zerpa
    25 pitches·24% CSW
    • SI
      64%·95.8 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      16%·95.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      12%·87.3 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      8%·89.8 mph·0% whiff
  • A. Ashby
    15 pitches·20% CSW
    • SI
      53%·97.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      20%·83.7 mph·100% whiff
    • CH
      13%·91.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      13%·84.2 mph·— whiff
  • T. Megill
    8 pitches·13% CSW
    • KC
      63%·87.5 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      38%·96.6 mph·0% whiff
  • A. Uribe
    8 pitches·50% CSW
    • SI
      50%·99.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      50%·88.0 mph·100% whiff
  • G. Anderson
    4 pitches·75% CSW
    • ST
      100%·80.4 mph·100% whiff

DET

  • T. Skubal
    94 pitches·26% CSW
    • FF
      49%·96.5 mph·11% whiff
    • CH
      28%·86.6 mph·44% whiff
    • SI
      15%·96.6 mph·10% whiff
    • SL
      7%·89.8 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      1%·79.2 mph·0% whiff
  • B. Smith
    24 pitches·33% CSW
    • FF
      54%·95.3 mph·33% whiff
    • CU
      21%·83.0 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      17%·86.9 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      8%·85.9 mph·— whiff
  • T. Holton
    18 pitches·28% CSW
    • FC
      50%·86.8 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      17%·90.4 mph·— whiff
    • CH
      11%·83.6 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      11%·90.5 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      11%·80.3 mph·— whiff
  • B. Hurter
    4 pitches·0% CSW
    • SI
      50%·92.7 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      50%·81.7 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

10

Hits

7

4

Runs

5

0

Errors

0

Current series

DET wins series 2-1

Apr 21MILMIL12@DETDET4
Apr 22MILMIL2@DETDET5
Apr 23MILMIL4@DETDET5today

Season series

DET wins series 2-1

Apr 21MILMIL12@DETDET4
Apr 22MILMIL2@DETDET5
Apr 23MILMIL4@DETDET5today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

DET -1.5

Total

7.0

Defensive · -1.5 vs avg

Moneyline

MILMIL+18935%
DETDET-23370%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet DET -1.5↗SpreadBet DET -1.5↗

Line movement · 33 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

7.0

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowMIL ↔ DET

Biggest swing: 42pp · Bottom 9th Inning

MILMIL
S. Frelick

S. Frelick

RF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 2.000 OPS

B. Sproat

B. Sproat

SP

Starting pitcher

5.1 IP · 4 K · 3 ER · 4 H · 2 BB

DETDET
J. Jones

J. Jones

DH

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 1 HR · 5.000 OPS

T. Skubal

T. Skubal

SP

Starting pitcher

6.0 IP · 5 K · 4 ER · 7 H

How it ended

DET beat MIL 5-4. Torkelson's play in the bottom 9th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (42pp).

Win probability

DET vs MIL

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
MILTop 7th Inning · 3-3
+29pp→ 61% WP

Perkins · doubled to left, Matos scored and Sánchez scored.

DETBottom 8th Inning · 4-4
+31pp→ 56% WP

Jones · homered to left (397 feet).

DETBottom 9th Inning · 4-5
+42pp→ 100% WP

Torkelson · homered to left center (382 feet).

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
MIL0001003004
DET2000010115

Period scoring

MIL won 2 · DET won 4

0
2

Inn 1

Greene 2

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

1
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
1

Inn 6

Dingler 1

3
0

Inn 7

Perkins 2

0
1

Inn 8

Jones 1

0
1

Inn 9

Torkelson 1

MIL
DET

Play-by-play · 539 plays

period
event
player
  1. B9

    ·

    MIL 4·DET 5

  2. B9

    Torkelson homered to left center (382 feet).BIG MOMENT

    ·

    MIL 4·DET 5

    +42pp

  3. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    ·

    MIL 4·DET 5

  4. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 3

    ·

    MIL 4·DET 4

  5. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    MIL 4·DET 4

  6. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    MIL 4·DET 4

  7. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    MIL 4·DET 4

  8. B9

    Abner Uribe pitches to Spencer Torkelson

    ·

    MIL 4·DET 5

  9. B9

    ·

    MIL 4·DET 4

  10. B9

    Vierling struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    MIL 4·DET 4

    +15pp

  11. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    MIL 4·DET 4

  12. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    MIL 4·DET 4

  13. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    MIL 4·DET 4

  14. B9

    Abner Uribe pitches to Matt Vierling

    ·

    MIL 4·DET 4

  15. B9

    Uribe relieved Zerpa

    ·

    MIL 4·DET 4

  16. B9

    Frelick in right field.

    MIL 4·DET 4

  17. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    MIL 4·DET 4

  18. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    MIL 4·DET 4

  19. T9

    · ·

    MIL 4·DET 4

  20. T9

    Hamilton grounded into double play, shortstop to first, Ortiz out at second.

    · ·

    MIL 4·DET 4

  21. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    MIL 4·DET 4

  22. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    MIL 4·DET 4

  23. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    MIL 4·DET 4

  24. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    MIL 4·DET 4

  25. T9

    Brant Hurter pitches to David Hamilton

    · ·

    MIL 4·DET 4

  26. T9

    Hurter relieved Smith

    ·

    MIL 4·DET 4

  27. T9

    · ·

    MIL 4·DET 4

  28. T9

    Ortiz walked.

    · ·

    MIL 4·DET 4

    −2pp

  29. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 4

    · ·

    MIL 4·DET 4

  30. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 3

    · ·

    MIL 4·DET 4

Team stats

MIL

Away

Stat

DET

Home

4

Runs

5

10

Hits

7

0

Errors

0

13

TB

17

0

HR

3

2

BB

3

6

K

8

11

LOB

10

Betting line

DET -1.5·O/U 7·MIL +189/DET -233

DraftKings · via ESPN

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort
  • Garrett MitchellMIL · CF
    SPRINT29.798
  • Brandon LockridgeMIL · LF
    SPRINT29.294
  • Sal FrelickMIL · RF
    SPRINT28.790
  • Brice TurangMIL · 2B
    SPRINT28.586
  • Blake PerkinsMIL · CF
    SPRINT28.586

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 4, 26sim 98
    83
    24(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Mar 31, 26sim 97
    21
    18(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 25, 26sim 96
    256
    29(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 16, 26sim 96
    163
    4(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 16, 26sim 95
    257
    12(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 22, 26sim 95
    82
    6(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

Player projections

DET vs MIL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

124

projections · 80 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Jacob MisiorowskiMIL
    9.0± 2.7low
  • Kyle HarrisonMIL
    6.1± 4.9low
  • Jack FlahertyDET
    5.5± 3.5low

Hits

  • William ContrerasMIL
    1.4± 1.1high
  • Jake BauersMIL
    1.1± 0.9high
  • Kevin McGonigleDET
    1.0± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Christian YelichMIL
    2.0± 2.4high
  • Jake BauersMIL
    1.8± 1.9high
  • William ContrerasMIL
    1.8± 1.8high

RBIs

  • Jake BauersMIL
    0.8± 1.2high
  • Dillon DinglerDET
    0.6± 0.8high
  • Christian YelichMIL
    0.6± 0.8high

Earned runs

  • Brandon SproatMIL
    2.9± 2.7low
  • Jack FlahertyDET
    2.8± 2.4low
  • Framber ValdezDET
    2.7± 3.6low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.9%

ensemble · MIL favored

  • Elo Static

    48.3%

    P(DET win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    52.1%

    P(DET win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    46.9%

    P(DET win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

2.20 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

85% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.