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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+7HOU
BOS

BOS

1-3

1
8
HOU

HOU

3-2

Daikin Park · Houston, Texas
23,532 attended

Line movement

10 snapshots

HOU spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.5

HOU no-vig %

45.8%

open 45.8%

+2.0+1.0HOU SPREADO/U 9.0O/U 8.0TOTAL49.8%41.8%HOU NO-VIG %May 4, 11 AMMay 28, 2 PM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = HOU favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

HOU wins

BOS 1 · HOU 8 (by 7)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked BOS +1pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
BOS0000001001
HOU102011218

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 23, 26sim 97
    84
    6(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 4, 26sim 96
    83
    24(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 19, 26sim 95
    154
    22(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 1, 26sim 95
    22
    18(H)9
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Mar 28, 26sim 95
    25
    17(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Mar 29, 26sim 94
    22
    17(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+109

Close price

+109

Open no-vig

45.8%

Close no-vig

45.8%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

MLB·Mon, Mar 30·Final/SeriesHOU wins series 3-0/VegasBOS -131

Recap · MLB

Houston Astros held off Boston Red Sox, 8–1. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

HOU +1.5 cashed (BOS lost outright). Total cleared the 8.5 OVER by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

BOS · top performer

BOS
Wilyer Abreu

Wilyer Abreu

RF

1.333OPS

3-2

AB-H

0

R

1

RBI

HOU · top performer

HOU
Jose Altuve

Jose Altuve

2B

3.500OPS

4-4

AB-H

4

R

2

RBI

MLB · Boston Red Sox at Houston Astros · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
BOS1-3
1
8
HOU3-2
BOS1-3·HOU3-2
BOS

BOS

1-3

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
R. AnthonyR. Anthony★LF
0-44000002
SPRINT27.457
T. StoryT. Story★SS
1-44010002
SPRINT27.969
J. DuranJ. Duran★LF
0-33100012
SPRINT29.294
W. ContrerasW. Contreras★1B
0-44000002
W. AbreuW. Abreu★RF
2-33021001
SPRINT2872
C. DurbinC. Durbin★3B
0-22000000
M. MayerM. Mayer★2B
0-22000010
C. NarvaezC. Narvaez★C
1-33010002
SPRINT257
C. RafaelaC. Rafaela★CF
0-33000000
M. YoshidaM. YoshidaDH
0-11000001
Team4-29291410212
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
R. SuarezR. Suarez★SP
4.1744132
J. OviedoJ. OviedoSP
3.2644132
Team8.01388264
HOU

HOU

3-2

8
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. AltuveJ. Altuve★2B
4-44442210
SPRINT27.867
Y. AlvarezY. Alvarez★DH
2-55122101
SPRINT24.64
I. ParedesI. Paredes★3B
1-33010000
C. CorreaC. Correa★SS
1-44110000
SPRINT27.251
C. WalkerC. Walker★1B
1-44011002
SPRINT25.920
C. SmithC. Smith★RF
1-33110010
J. MeyersJ. Meyers★CF
1-44010001
Y. DiazY. Diaz★C
1-33011000
B. MatthewsB. Matthews★CF
1-44111102
SPRINT28.278
Team13-34348137426
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
L. McCullers Jr.L. McCullers Jr.★SP
7.0411190
R. WeissR. WeissRP
2.0000130
Team9.04112120

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

4

Hits

13

1

Runs

8

0

Errors

0

Current series

HOU wins series 3-0

Mar 31BOSBOS1@HOUHOU8today
Apr 1BOSBOS2@HOUHOU9
Apr 1BOSBOS4@HOUHOU6

Season series

HOU leads series 1-0

Mar 31BOSBOS1@HOUHOU8today
Apr 1BOSBOS2@HOUHOU9
Apr 1BOSBOS4@HOUHOU6
May 1HOUHOU1@BOSBOS3
May 2HOUHOU6@BOSBOS3
May 3HOUHOU3@BOSBOS1

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

BOS -1.5

Total

8.5

Standard · 0.0 vs avg

Moneyline

BOSBOS-13157%
HOUHOU+10948%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet BOS -1.5↗SpreadBet BOS -1.5↗

Line movement · 10 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

8.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowBOS ↔ HOU

Biggest swing: 14pp · Bottom 3rd Inning

BOSBOS
W. Abreu

W. Abreu

RF

Batter of the game

2-for-3 · 1.333 OPS

R. Suarez

R. Suarez

SP

Starting pitcher

4.1 IP · 3 K · 4 ER · 7 H · 1 BB

HOUHOU
J. Altuve

J. Altuve

2B

Batter of the game2-HR game

4-for-4 · 2 HR · 3.500 OPS

L. McCullers Jr.

L. McCullers Jr.

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

7.0 IP · 9 K · 1 ER · 4 H · 1 BB

How it ended

HOU beat BOS 8-1.

Win probability

HOU vs BOS

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
HOUBottom 1st Inning · 0-0
+7pp→ 67% WP

Paredes · singled to center, Alvarez to second, Altuve to third.

HOUBottom 3rd Inning · 0-3
+14pp→ 84% WP

Alvarez · homered to right (394 feet), Altuve scored.

HOUBottom 5th Inning · 0-4
+9pp→ 94% WP

Matthews · homered to center (434 feet).

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
BOS0000001001
HOU10201121—8

Period scoring

BOS won 0 · HOU won 6

0
1

Inn 1

Correa 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
2

Inn 3

Alvarez 2

0
0

Inn 4

0
1

Inn 5

Matthews 1

0
1

Inn 6

Diaz 1

1
2

Inn 7

Abreu 1

Altuve 1

0
1

Inn 8

Altuve 1

0

Inn 9

BOS
HOU

Play-by-play · 527 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    BOS 1·HOU 8

  2. T9

    Contreras grounded out to second.

    ·

    BOS 1·HOU 8

  3. T9

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    ·

    BOS 1·HOU 8

  4. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    BOS 1·HOU 8

  5. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    BOS 1·HOU 8

  6. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 3

    ·

    BOS 1·HOU 8

  7. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    BOS 1·HOU 8

  8. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    BOS 1·HOU 8

  9. T9

    Ryan Weiss pitches to Willson Contreras

    ·

    BOS 1·HOU 8

  10. T9

    ·

    BOS 1·HOU 8

  11. T9

    Duran struck out swinging.

    ·

    BOS 1·HOU 8

  12. T9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    BOS 1·HOU 8

  13. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    BOS 1·HOU 8

  14. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    BOS 1·HOU 8

  15. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    BOS 1·HOU 8

  16. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    BOS 1·HOU 8

  17. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    BOS 1·HOU 8

  18. T9

    Ryan Weiss pitches to Jarren Duran

    ·

    BOS 1·HOU 8

  19. T9

    ·

    BOS 1·HOU 8

  20. T9

    Story popped out to shortstop.

    ·

    BOS 1·HOU 8

  21. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    ·

    BOS 1·HOU 8

  22. T9

    Ryan Weiss pitches to Trevor Story

    ·

    BOS 1·HOU 8

  23. T9

    Allen at third base.

    BOS 1·HOU 8

  24. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    BOS 1·HOU 8

  25. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    BOS 1·HOU 8

  26. B8

    ·

    BOS 1·HOU 8

  27. B8

    Alvarez grounded out to first.

    ·

    BOS 1·HOU 8

  28. B8

    Pitch 7 : Ball In Play

    ·

    BOS 1·HOU 8

  29. B8

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    BOS 1·HOU 8

  30. B8

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    BOS 1·HOU 8

Team stats

BOS

Away

Stat

HOU

Home

1

Runs

8

4

Hits

13

0

Errors

0

6

TB

27

0

HR

4

2

BB

2

12

K

6

9

LOB

12

Betting line

BOS -1.5·O/U 8.5·BOS -131/HOU +109

DraftKings · via ESPN

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 16 players in cohort
  • Cam SmithHOU · RF
    SPRINT29.395
  • Jarren DuranBOS · LF
    SPRINT29.294
  • Caleb DurbinBOS · 3B
    SPRINT28.175
  • Wilyer AbreuBOS · RF
    SPRINT2872

Player projections

HOU vs BOS.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 74 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Payton TolleBOS
    6.6± 4.0low
  • Peter LambertHOU
    5.7± 2.5low
  • Spencer ArrighettiHOU
    5.4± 3.3low

Hits

  • Willson ContrerasBOS
    1.4± 0.7high
  • Jarren DuranBOS
    1.2± 1.2high
  • Ceddanne RafaelaBOS
    1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Jarren DuranBOS
    2.4± 3.0high
  • Willson ContrerasBOS
    2.4± 1.5high
  • Yordan AlvarezHOU
    2.3± 3.5high

RBIs

  • Jarren DuranBOS
    0.9± 0.9high
  • Christian WalkerHOU
    0.9± 1.4high
  • Willson ContrerasBOS
    0.7± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Mike BurrowsHOU
    3.4± 2.8low
  • Brayan BelloBOS
    3.1± 3.8low
  • Tatsuya ImaiHOU
    2.7± 3.2low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.8%

ensemble · BOS favored

  • Elo Static

    49.1%

    P(HOU win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    44.6%

    P(HOU win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    48.5%

    P(HOU win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.99 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

87% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.