MON, 7:45 PM EDT
MIL
18-15
STL
20-14
Busch Stadium · St. Louis, Missouri
Probable starters
The mound matchup
Combined ERA 8.09
C. Patrick
2-1 · 2.57 ERA
vs
K. Leahy
3-3 · 5.52 ERA
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
Chad Patrick
SP · #39
2-1
W-L
2.57
ERA
1.25
WHIP
16
K
28.0
IP
Last 3 starts
vsARIW(2-1)5.0 IP2 ER5 K
@DETL(1-1)4.0 IP4 ER2 K
vsTOR-6.2 IP1 ER2 K
Home starter
Kyle Leahy
SP · #62
3-3
W-L
5.52
ERA
1.67
WHIP
22
K
29.1
IP
Last 3 starts
@PITW(3-3)5.1 IP3 ER7 K
@MIAL(2-3)5.0 IP4 ER2 K
@HOUW(2-2)5.0 IP3 ER6 K
Vegas line
Spread-1.5
TotalO/U 9
Money-122 / +102
Model edge
Win prob51% / 49%
LeanTossup
ConfidenceTossup
Head to head
No prior meetings logged this season yet.
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Projected lineups
Top of the order, top of mind.
Posted by ESPN ~30 minutes before first pitch.
STL
- 1.J. Wetherholt2B
- 2.I. HerreraDH
- 3.A. Burleson1B
- 4.J. WalkerRF
- 5.N. Gorman3B
- 6.M. WinnSS
- 7.N. ChurchLF
- 8.P. PagesC
- 9.V. Scott IICF
Line movement
54 snapshots
STL spread
+1.5
open +1.5
Total
O/U 9.0
open O/U 8.5 · +0.5
STL implied %
49.5%
open 51.2% · -1.7
Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = STL favored. Pure CLV joins once moneyline closing-line ingest catches up across leagues.
Model vs marketLean
DraftKings · snapped 4m ago+1.7ppon STL
STLMILWin prob axisSTLMarket 47%
Model 49%
0%50%100%
ModelSTL 49%Pre-game prob
MarketSTL 47%No-vig · 4.5% hold
Edge+1.7ppModel finds value
MIL -122/STL +102The One modelTossup
Mon, May 4MIL★
Brewers
18-15
vs51%MIL
STL
Cardinals
20-14
MIL 51%win prob49% STL
MIL 1535 · STL 1505Box score→
