Milwaukee Brewers vs St. Louis Cardinals: Final Score & Box Score — May 4, 2026

FINAL+3STL

MIL

18-16

STL

21-14

Busch Stadium · St. Louis, Missouri

22,080 attended

Line movement

100 snapshots

STL spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 9.0

open O/U 8.5 · +0.5

STL no-vig %

46.7%

open 48.9% · -2.3

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = STL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Logged before first pitch · graded in public

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

45.1%

ensemble · MIL favored

Elo Static
49.0%
P(STL win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
47.4%
P(STL win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
49.2%
P(STL win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.80 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

STL vs MIL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 86 high confidence

Strikeouts

Jacob MisiorowskiMIL
9.4± 2.8medium
Kyle HarrisonMIL
6.6± 5.0low
Dustin MaySTL
5.5± 3.4medium

Hits

Jackson ChourioMIL
1.3± 1.2high
JJ WetherholtSTL
1.3± 1.4high
Cooper PrattMIL
1.2± 1.0low

Total bases

Jackson ChourioMIL
2.7± 3.1high
Alec BurlesonSTL
2.2± 1.7high
JJ WetherholtSTL
2.1± 3.0high

RBIs

Jackson ChourioMIL
1.0± 1.2high
Alec BurlesonSTL
0.8± 0.6high
Blaze JordanSTL
0.8± 1.5low

Earned runs

Matthew LiberatoreSTL
3.0± 1.9medium
Brandon SproatMIL
2.9± 2.0low
Robert GasserMIL
2.5± 2.9low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

MIL

league avg

STL

.734

OPS

.719

.730

.340

OBP

◀

.319

.328

5.29

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.65

3.45

Team ERA

◀

4.19

4.29

1.19

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.35

9.9

K / 9

◀

8.5

7.7

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

STL wins

MIL 3 · STL 6 (by 3)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked MIL +1pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
MIL	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	3
STL	0	1	0	3	0	0	1	1	6

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
G. MitchellCF	.219	5	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. ChourioLF	1.000	4	1	4	0	0	1	0
B. Turang2B	.304	5	1	3	2	1	0	1
W. ContrerasC	.295	5	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. Bauers1B	.248	2	1	1	0	0	1	1
A. Vaughn1B	.125	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
S. FrelickRF	.212	3	0	1	0	0	1	0
L. Rengifo3B	.188	4	0	1	1	0	0	1
D. HamiltonSS	.235	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
G. SanchezC	.211	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
T. BlackDH	.409	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		37	3	11	3	1	4	7

Player

.219

1.000

.304

.295

.248

.125

.212

.188

.235

.211

.409

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. PatrickRP	3.1	7	4	4	3	4	64
D. HallRP	1.2	0	0	0	0	2	24
S. DrohanRP	1.1	1	1	1	1	1	23
G. AndersonRP	0.2	1	0	0	0	0	9
J. WoodfordRP	1.0	2	1	1	0	2	25
Team	8.0	11	6	6	4	9	145

Player

3.1

1.2

1.1

0.2

1.0

Team

8.0

145

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. Wetherholt2B	.246	4	1	2	2	0	1	0
I. HerreraDH	.248	5	0	2	3	0	0	2
A. Burleson1B	.269	5	0	0	0	0	0	3
J. WalkerRF	.308	3	1	1	0	0	1	2
N. Gorman3B	.224	4	0	2	0	0	0	0
M. WinnSS	.274	3	1	1	1	0	1	0
N. ChurchLF	.248	4	1	1	0	0	0	0
P. PagesC	.237	3	1	0	0	0	1	2
V. Scott IICF	.184	3	1	2	0	0	0	0
Team		34	6	11	6	0	4	9

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
K. LeahySP	5.1	6	1	1	2	5	94
G. SorianoRP	0.2	1	0	0	1	1	18
J. RomeroRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	0	16
R. StanekRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	7
G. GraceffoRP	0.1	3	2	2	0	0	11
R. O'BrienRP	0.2	0	0	0	0	0	3
Team	9.0	11	3	3	4	7	149

Team

MIL

STL

—

3 sub-models, blended.

STL vs MIL.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

STL vs MIL.

3 sub-models, blended.