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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+2SD
SD

SD

18-8

6
4
ARI

ARI

14-12

Estadio Alfredo Harp Helú · Mexico City
19,630 attended

Line movement

35 snapshots

ARI spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 16.0

open O/U 16.0

ARI no-vig %

50.4%

open 50.4%

+2.0+1.0ARI SPREADO/U 16.5O/U 15.5TOTAL54.4%46.4%ARI NO-VIG %May 3, 7 PMMay 30, 8 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = ARI favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

SD wins

SD 6 · ARI 4 (by 2)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked SD +1pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
SD0000104016
ARI0400000004

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 23, 26sim 96
    84
    6(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 4, 26sim 96
    83
    24(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 16, 26sim 96
    257
    12(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 6, 26sim 95
    86
    24(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 16, 26sim 94
    163
    4(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 18, 26sim 94
    133
    12(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Sat, Apr 25·Final/Seriestied 1-1/VegasARI -112

Recap · MLB

San Diego Padres went into Arizona Diamondbacks and beat them, 6–4.

SD -1.5 cashed (won by 2). Total stayed UNDER 16.0 by 6.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

SD · top performer

SD
Ty France

Ty France

1B

2.500OPS

4-2

AB-H

2

R

2

RBI

ARI · top performer

ARI
Alek Thomas

Alek Thomas

CF

1.250OPS

4-1

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

MLB · San Diego Padres at Arizona Diamondbacks · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
SD18-8
6
4
ARI14-12
SD18-8·ARI14-12
SD

SD

18-8

6
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
R. LaureanoR. Laureano★LF
0-33001012
SPRINT2872
F. Tatis Jr.F. Tatis Jr.★RF
1-44010011
J. MerrillJ. Merrill★CF
0-33100011
M. MachadoM. Machado★3B
1-44110000
SPRINT24.32
X. BogaertsX. Bogaerts★SS
0-33100013
G. SheetsG. Sheets★1B
1-44112001
SPRINT26.735
T. FranceT. France★1B
2-44222200
SPRINT24.74
F. FerminF. Fermin★C
1-33011001
SPRINT26.838
J. CronenworthJ. Cronenworth★2B
0-22000011
Team6-30306662510
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
G. MarquezG. Marquez★SP
6.0644121
A. MorejonA. MorejonRP
1.0100120
J. AdamJ. AdamRP
1.0000000
M. MillerM. MillerRP
1.0000000
Team9.0744241
ARI

ARI

14-12

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
G. PerdomoG. Perdomo★SS
0-33000001
K. MarteK. Marte★2B
1-44010011
SPRINT26.225
C. CarrollC. Carroll★RF
0-22000010
AA. Del Castillo★DH
0-44000001
L. Gurriel Jr.L. Gurriel Jr.★LF
0-44000000
I. VargasI. Vargas★1B
1-44110000
SPRINT26.941
N. ArenadoN. Arenado★3B
2-44120000
SPRINT25.29
J. FernandezJ. Fernandez★DH
2-44122000
SPRINT29.597
A. ThomasA. Thomas★CF
1-44112100
SPRINT27.867
T. TawaT. TawaLF
0-11000001
J. BarrosaJ. BarrosaCF
0-11000000
Team7-3535474124
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
Z. GallenZ. Gallen★SP
3.0100030
B. PfaadtB. PfaadtRP
3.0244351
T. ClarkeT. ClarkeRP
1.0110100
J. LoaisigaJ. LoaisigaRP
1.0000010
A. HoffmannA. HoffmannRP
1.0211111
Team9.06655102

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

SD

  • G. Marquez
    75 pitches·24% CSW
    • KC
      48%·85.2 mph·24% whiff
    • FF
      36%·95.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      11%·88.8 mph·40% whiff
    • CH
      5%·87.8 mph·0% whiff
  • A. Morejon
    29 pitches·31% CSW
    • SI
      45%·100.8 mph·44% whiff
    • SL
      31%·89.3 mph·25% whiff
    • FF
      17%·100.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      7%·93.6 mph·100% whiff
  • J. Adam
    15 pitches·27% CSW
    • SL
      67%·85.7 mph·20% whiff
    • FF
      33%·93.7 mph·0% whiff
  • M. Miller
    13 pitches·38% CSW
    • SL
      54%·88.3 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      38%·102.8 mph·25% whiff
    • CH
      8%·96.5 mph·— whiff

ARI

  • B. Pfaadt
    56 pitches·25% CSW
    • FF
      36%·94.0 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      32%·83.2 mph·67% whiff
    • FC
      20%·91.8 mph·38% whiff
    • ST
      7%·85.3 mph·100% whiff
    • SI
      5%·93.7 mph·0% whiff
  • Z. Gallen
    49 pitches·24% CSW
    • FF
      47%·94.1 mph·10% whiff
    • SL
      29%·89.3 mph·38% whiff
    • KC
      20%·82.7 mph·67% whiff
    • CH
      4%·86.7 mph·— whiff
  • A. Hoffmann
    24 pitches·29% CSW
    • FF
      58%·95.4 mph·17% whiff
    • SL
      29%·86.9 mph·100% whiff
    • CH
      13%·87.7 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Loaisiga
    18 pitches·17% CSW
    • FF
      39%·98.3 mph·20% whiff
    • CU
      28%·89.6 mph·50% whiff
    • CH
      17%·91.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      17%·98.4 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Clarke
    14 pitches·7% CSW
    • FC
      36%·94.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      36%·89.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      21%·96.3 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      7%·90.4 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

6

Hits

7

6

Runs

4

1

Errors

3

Current series

Series tied 1-1

Apr 25SDSD6@ARIARI4today
Apr 26SDSD7@ARIARI12

Season series

SD leads series 1-0

Apr 25SDSD6@ARIARI4today
Apr 26SDSD7@ARIARI12
Jul 7ARIARI@SDSDupcoming
Jul 8ARIARI@SDSDupcoming
Jul 9ARIARI@SDSDupcoming
Jul 10ARIARI@SDSDupcoming
Aug 4SDSD@ARIARIupcoming
Aug 5SDSD@ARIARIupcoming
Aug 6SDSD@ARIARIupcoming
Aug 7SDSD@ARIARIupcoming
Sep 26ARIARI@SDSDupcoming
Sep 27ARIARI@SDSDupcoming
Sep 27ARIARI@SDSDupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

SD -1.5

Total

16.0

High-scoring · +7.5 vs avg

Moneyline

SDSD-10852%
ARIARI-11253%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet SD -1.5↗SpreadBet SD -1.5↗

Line movement · 35 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

16.0

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowSD ↔ ARI

Biggest swing: 19pp · Bottom 2nd Inning

SDSD
T. France

T. France

1B

Batter of the game2-HR game

2-for-4 · 2 HR · 2.500 OPS

G. Marquez

G. Marquez

SP

Starting pitcher

6.0 IP · 2 K · 4 ER · 6 H · 1 BB

ARIARI
A. Thomas

A. Thomas

CF

Batter of the game

1-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.250 OPS

B. Pfaadt

B. Pfaadt

RP

Top reliever

3.0 IP · 5 K · 4 ER · 2 H · 3 BB

How it ended

SD beat ARI 6-4. Fernandez's play in the bottom 2nd inning drove the biggest swing of the night (19pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

ARI vs SD

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
ARIBottom 2nd Inning · 0-2
+19pp→ 77% WP

Fernandez · doubled to center, Arenado scored and Vargas scored.

SDTop 7th Inning · 3-4
+16pp→ 50% WP

Sheets · singled to right, Machado scored and Merrill scored, Bogaerts to second.

SDTop 7th Inning · 4-4
+11pp→ 70% WP

Cronenworth · hit by pitch, France to second, Sheets to third.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
SD0000104016
ARI0400000004

Period scoring

SD won 3 · ARI won 1

0
0

Inn 1

0
4

Inn 2

Fernandez 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

1
0

Inn 5

France 1

0
0

Inn 6

4
0

Inn 7

Sheets 2

0
0

Inn 8

1
0

Inn 9

France 1

SD
ARI

Play-by-play · 577 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    SD 6·ARI 4

  2. B9

    ·

    SD 6·ARI 4

  3. B9

    Marte grounded out to first.

    ·

    SD 6·ARI 4

    −2pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    SD 6·ARI 4

  5. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    SD 6·ARI 4

  6. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    SD 6·ARI 4

  7. B9

    Mason Miller pitches to Ketel Marte

    ·

    SD 6·ARI 4

  8. B9

    ·

    SD 6·ARI 4

  9. B9

    Barrosa grounded out to second.

    ·

    SD 6·ARI 4

    −3pp

  10. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    SD 6·ARI 4

  11. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    SD 6·ARI 4

  12. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    SD 6·ARI 4

  13. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    SD 6·ARI 4

  14. B9

    Mason Miller pitches to Jorge Barrosa

    ·

    SD 6·ARI 4

  15. B9

    Barrosa hit for Tawa

    ·

    SD 6·ARI 4

  16. B9

    ·

    SD 6·ARI 4

  17. B9

    Thomas flied out to left.

    ·

    SD 6·ARI 4

    −3pp

  18. B9

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    ·

    SD 6·ARI 4

  19. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 2

    ·

    SD 6·ARI 4

  20. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 1

    ·

    SD 6·ARI 4

  21. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    SD 6·ARI 4

  22. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    SD 6·ARI 4

  23. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    SD 6·ARI 4

  24. B9

    Mason Miller pitches to Alek Thomas

    ·

    SD 6·ARI 4

  25. B9

    Miller relieved Adam

    ·

    SD 6·ARI 4

  26. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    SD 6·ARI 4

  27. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    SD 6·ARI 4

  28. T9

    ·

    SD 6·ARI 4

  29. T9

    Tatis Jr. singled to right, Laureano thrown out at third.

    · ·

    SD 6·ARI 4

  30. T9

    Pitch 7 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    SD 6·ARI 4

Team stats

SD

Away

Stat

ARI

Home

6

Runs

4

6

Hits

7

1

Errors

3

12

TB

11

2

HR

1

5

BB

2

10

K

4

9

LOB

12

Betting line

SD -1.5·O/U 16·SD -108/ARI -112

DraftKings · via ESPN

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort
  • Corbin CarrollARI · RF
    SPRINT29.496
  • Jackson MerrillSD · CF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Jorge BarrosaARI · CF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Fernando Tatis Jr.SD · RF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Ramon LaureanoSD · LF
    SPRINT2872

Player projections

ARI vs SD.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

132

projections · 87 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Michael KingSD
    5.7± 2.2low
  • Michael SorokaARI
    5.2± 3.5low
  • Griffin CanningSD
    4.8± 2.4low

Hits

  • Ketel MarteARI
    1.6± 1.3high
  • Fernando Tatis Jr.SD
    1.4± 1.0high
  • Corbin CarrollARI
    1.3± 1.2high

Total bases

  • Ketel MarteARI
    3.0± 2.2high
  • Corbin CarrollARI
    2.2± 2.3high
  • Gabriel MorenoARI
    1.9± 1.8high

RBIs

  • Ketel MarteARI
    1.1± 1.4high
  • Gabriel MorenoARI
    0.8± 1.1high
  • Geraldo PerdomoARI
    0.7± 1.0high

Earned runs

  • Griffin CanningSD
    3.8± 2.9low
  • Merrill KellyARI
    3.5± 3.5low
  • Zac GallenARI
    2.9± 2.5low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.9%

ensemble · SD favored

  • Elo Static

    49.0%

    P(ARI win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    49.7%

    P(ARI win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    50.4%

    P(ARI win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.57 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.