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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+6TB
TB

TB

3-5

7
1
MIN

MIN

3-5

Target Field · Minneapolis, Minnesota
15,256 attended

Line movement

8 snapshots

MIN spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.0

MIN no-vig %

48.3%

open 48.3%

+2.0+1.0MIN SPREADO/U 8.5O/U 7.5TOTAL52.3%44.3%MIN NO-VIG %MODEL 48.8%May 4, 10 AMMay 30, 5 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = MIN favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TB wins

TB 7 · MIN 1 (by 6)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked MIN +1pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
TB0310200107
MIN0100000001

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-102

Close price

-102

Open no-vig

48.3%

Close no-vig

48.3%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 21, 26sim 96
    95
    21(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 22, 26sim 95
    92
    21(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 8, 26sim 95
    246
    20(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 5, 26sim 94
    304
    9(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 7, 26sim 94
    14
    4(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 8, 26sim 93
    15
    4(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Sat, Apr 4·Final/SeriesTB wins series 2-1/VegasTB -118

Recap · MLB

Tampa Bay Rays went into Minnesota Twins and beat them, 7–1. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

TB -1.5 cashed (won by 6). Total pushed exactly on 8.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

TB · top performer

TB
Richie Palacios

Richie Palacios

2B

1.167OPS

2-1

AB-H

2

R

0

RBI

MIN · top performer

MIN
Brooks Lee

Brooks Lee

SS

0.667OPS

3-1

AB-H

0

R

1

RBI

MLB · Tampa Bay Rays at Minnesota Twins · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
TB3-5
7
1
MIN3-5
TB3-5·MIN3-5
TB

TB

3-5

7
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
Y. DiazY. Diaz★DH
1-33012000
SPRINT25.716
J. ArandaJ. Aranda★1B
1-55012003
SPRINT25.29
J. FraleyJ. Fraley★RF
0-22000030
J. CamineroJ. Caminero★3B
1-55010000
C. MullinsC. Mullins★CF
2-55220001
SPRINT27.662
C. SimpsonC. Simpson★LF
2-55120000
SPRINT29.496
B. WilliamsonB. Williamson★2B
1-44211010
SPRINT28.381
H. FeducciaH. Feduccia★C
1-44011001
R. PalaciosR. Palacios★2B
1-22210010
Team10-35357106055
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
S. MatzS. Matz★SP
6.0211280
C. SulserC. SulserRP
2.0100230
M. EnglertM. EnglertRP
1.0000010
Team9.03114120
MIN

MIN

3-5

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
A. MartinA. Martin★LF
0-33000010
SPRINT27.867
L. KeaschallL. Keaschall★2B
1-44010002
SPRINT28.688
J. BellJ. Bell★DH
0-33000012
SPRINT25.18
M. WallnerM. Wallner★RF
1-44110002
SPRINT2622
R. JeffersR. Jeffers★C
0-33000011
V. CaratiniV. Caratini★C
0-44000001
R. LewisR. Lewis★3B
0-33000011
B. LeeB. Lee★SS
1-33011001
SPRINT26.428
J. OutmanJ. Outman★CF
0-33000002
Team3-30301310412
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
M. AbelM. Abel★SP
4.0644330
T. RogersT. RogersRP
1.0322000
A. BandaA. BandaRP
1.0000010
Z. KentZ. KentRP
2.0111200
C. LawerysonC. LawerysonRP
1.0000010
Team9.01077550

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

TB

  • S. Matz
    97 pitches·28% CSW
    • SI
      51%·91.9 mph·20% whiff
    • CH
      32%·82.1 mph·30% whiff
    • CU
      12%·77.2 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      5%·80.9 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Sulser
    35 pitches·31% CSW
    • FF
      54%·90.1 mph·17% whiff
    • CH
      37%·81.5 mph·100% whiff
    • FC
      9%·84.9 mph·0% whiff
  • M. Englert
    14 pitches·29% CSW
    • SI
      43%·90.7 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      36%·84.7 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      7%·73.8 mph·— whiff
    • FC
      7%·85.9 mph·— whiff
    • FF
      7%·91.1 mph·— whiff

MIN

  • M. Abel
    84 pitches·24% CSW
    • FF
      43%·93.5 mph·21% whiff
    • CU
      20%·79.8 mph·13% whiff
    • SL
      14%·85.7 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      13%·86.0 mph·14% whiff
    • ST
      6%·81.6 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      4%·93.9 mph·0% whiff
  • Z. Kent
    34 pitches·18% CSW
    • SL
      44%·86.2 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      41%·90.8 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      15%·79.2 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Rogers
    23 pitches·22% CSW
    • SI
      39%·89.4 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      39%·76.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      22%·86.6 mph·50% whiff
  • A. Banda
    15 pitches·47% CSW
    • SL
      73%·82.5 mph·25% whiff
    • SI
      27%·92.5 mph·50% whiff
  • C. Laweryson
    9 pitches·22% CSW
    • FF
      78%·91.7 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      22%·82.6 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

10

Hits

3

7

Runs

1

1

Errors

1

Current series

TB wins series 2-1

Apr 3TBTB4@MINMIN10
Apr 4TBTB7@MINMIN1today
Apr 5TBTB4@MINMIN1

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Apr 3TBTB4@MINMIN10
Apr 4TBTB7@MINMIN1today
Apr 5TBTB4@MINMIN1
Apr 24MINMIN2@TBTB6
Apr 25MINMIN1@TBTB6
Apr 26MINMIN2@TBTB4

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

TB -1.5

Total

8.0

Defensive · -0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

TBTB-11854%
MINMIN-10250%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet TB -1.5↗SpreadBet TB -1.5↗

Line movement · 8 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

8.0

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowTB ↔ MIN

Biggest swing: 14pp · Top 2nd Inning

TBTB
R. Palacios

R. Palacios

2B

Batter of the game

1-for-2 · 2 R · 1.167 OPS

S. Matz

S. Matz

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 8 K · 1 ER · 2 H · 2 BB

MINMIN
B. Lee

B. Lee

SS

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 0.667 OPS

M. Abel

M. Abel

SP

Starting pitcher

4.0 IP · 3 K · 4 ER · 6 H · 3 BB

How it ended

TB beat MIN 7-1.

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

MIN vs TB

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
TBTop 2nd Inning · 3-0
+14pp→ 84% WP

Aranda · doubled to right, Williamson scored and Palacios scored, Díaz to third.

MINBottom 2nd Inning · 3-1
+9pp→ 33% WP

Lee · singled to center, Wallner scored on error, Jeffers to second, Lee to second, Jeffers safe at third on fielding error by center fielder Mullins.

TBTop 3rd Inning · 3-1
+7pp→ 79% WP

Simpson · singled to right, Mullins to third.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
TB0310200107
MIN0100000001

Period scoring

TB won 4 · MIN won 0

0
0

Inn 1

3
1

Inn 2

Aranda 2

Lee 1

1
0

Inn 3

Williamson 1

0
0

Inn 4

2
0

Inn 5

Williamson 1

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

1
0

Inn 8

0
0

Inn 9

TB
MIN

Play-by-play · 595 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    TB 7·MIN 1

  2. B9

    ·

    TB 7·MIN 1

  3. B9

    Lewis popped out to second.

    ·

    TB 7·MIN 1

  4. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    TB 7·MIN 1

  5. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    TB 7·MIN 1

  6. B9

    Mason Englert pitches to Royce Lewis

    ·

    TB 7·MIN 1

  7. B9

    ·

    TB 7·MIN 1

  8. B9

    Caratini lined out to center.

    ·

    TB 7·MIN 1

  9. B9

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    ·

    TB 7·MIN 1

  10. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 2

    ·

    TB 7·MIN 1

  11. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    TB 7·MIN 1

  12. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    TB 7·MIN 1

  13. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    TB 7·MIN 1

  14. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    TB 7·MIN 1

  15. B9

    Mason Englert pitches to Victor Caratini

    ·

    TB 7·MIN 1

  16. B9

    ·

    TB 7·MIN 1

  17. B9

    Jeffers struck out looking.

    ·

    TB 7·MIN 1

  18. B9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Looking

    ·

    TB 7·MIN 1

  19. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    ·

    TB 7·MIN 1

  20. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    TB 7·MIN 1

  21. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    TB 7·MIN 1

  22. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    TB 7·MIN 1

  23. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    TB 7·MIN 1

  24. B9

    Mason Englert pitches to Ryan Jeffers

    ·

    TB 7·MIN 1

  25. B9

    Englert relieved Sulser

    ·

    TB 7·MIN 1

  26. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    TB 7·MIN 1

  27. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    TB 7·MIN 1

  28. T9

    ·

    TB 7·MIN 1

  29. T9

    Williamson lined out to right.

    ·

    TB 7·MIN 1

  30. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    TB 7·MIN 1

Team stats

TB

Away

Stat

MIN

Home

7

Runs

1

10

Hits

3

1

Errors

1

13

TB

3

0

HR

0

5

BB

4

5

K

12

21

LOB

12

Betting line

TB -1.5·O/U 8·TB -118/MIN -102

DraftKings · via ESPN

Player projections

MIN vs TB.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 77 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Taj BradleyMIN
    6.5± 3.1low
  • Joe RyanMIN
    5.9± 3.1low
  • Zebby MatthewsMIN
    5.7± 0.8low

Hits

  • Yandy DiazTB
    1.3± 1.2high
  • Jonathan ArandaTB
    1.2± 0.9high
  • Orlando ArciaMIN
    1.1± 1.4low

Total bases

  • Yandy DiazTB
    2.7± 2.8high
  • Byron BuxtonMIN
    2.4± 2.7high
  • Jonathan ArandaTB
    2.0± 2.0high

RBIs

  • Yandy DiazTB
    0.9± 1.5high
  • Jonathan ArandaTB
    0.8± 0.8high
  • Victor Mesa Jr.TB
    0.7± 1.6low

Earned runs

  • Simeon Woods RichardsonMIN
    3.6± 3.0low
  • Connor PrielippMIN
    2.7± 2.7low
  • Steven MatzTB
    2.6± 2.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

48.8%

ensemble · TB favored

  • Elo Static

    51.1%

    P(MIN win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    51.9%

    P(MIN win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    50.4%

    P(MIN win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.61 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 16 players in cohort
  • Chandler SimpsonTB · LF
    SPRINT29.496
  • Luke KeaschallMIN · 2B
    SPRINT28.688
  • Ben WilliamsonTB · 2B
    SPRINT28.381
  • Jake FraleyTB · RF
    SPRINT28.278