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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+3TB
TB

TB

4-5

4
1
MIN

MIN

3-6

Target Field · Minneapolis, Minnesota
13,659 attended

Line movement

11 snapshots

MIN spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.0

MIN no-vig %

50.4%

open 50.4%

+2.0+1.0MIN SPREADO/U 8.5O/U 7.5TOTAL54.4%46.4%MIN NO-VIG %May 4, 10 AMMay 30, 2 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = MIN favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TB wins

TB 4 · MIN 1 (by 3)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked TB +0pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team12345678910R
TB00010000034
MIN01000000001

Final play

“End of the 10th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 7, 26sim 97
    14
    4(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 8, 26sim 97
    246
    20(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 7, 26sim 96
    62
    9(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 6, 26sim 96
    12
    4(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 9, 26sim 96
    61
    9(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 22, 26sim 95
    92
    21(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Sun, Apr 5·Final/SeriesTB wins series 2-1/VegasMIN -112

Recap · MLB

Tampa Bay Rays went into Minnesota Twins and beat them, 4–1.

TB -1.5 cashed (won by 3). Total stayed UNDER 8.0 by 3.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

TB · top performer

TB
Richie Palacios

Richie Palacios

2B

2.417OPS

3-2

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

MIN · top performer

MIN
Matt Wallner

Matt Wallner

RF

1.750OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · Tampa Bay Rays at Minnesota Twins · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final/10
TB4-5
4
1
MIN3-6
TB4-5·MIN3-6
TB

TB

4-5

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
Y. DiazY. Diaz★DH
1-44110011
SPRINT25.716
J. ArandaJ. Aranda★1B
0-44000010
C. SimpsonC. Simpson★LF
1-55010000
SPRINT29.496
J. CamineroJ. Caminero★3B
1-44112110
SPRINT25.716
C. MullinsC. Mullins★CF
0-55000001
B. WilliamsonB. Williamson★2B
1-44110002
SPRINT28.381
R. PalaciosR. Palacios★2B
2-33122110
SPRINT26.838
J. DeLucaJ. DeLuca★RF
0-33000001
H. FeducciaH. Feduccia★C
1-11010010
J. FraleyJ. FraleyRF
0-11000000
N. FortesN. FortesC
1-22010000
Team8-3636484255
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
N. MartinezN. Martinez★SP
6.0111141
G. JaxG. JaxRP
2.0200100
B. BakerB. BakerRP
1.0000020
K. KellyK. KellyRP
1.0000010
Team10.0311271
MIN

MIN

3-6

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
K. ClemensK. Clemens★1B
0-44000001
SPRINT27.457
B. BuxtonB. Buxton★CF
0-44000001
SPRINT29.597
L. KeaschallL. Keaschall★2B
0-44000000
SPRINT28.688
M. WallnerM. Wallner★RF
2-44121102
SPRINT2622
R. JeffersR. Jeffers★C
0-44000001
T. LarnachT. Larnach★LF
0-33000010
A. MartinA. Martin★LF
1-33010001
SPRINT27.867
T. GrayT. Gray★3B
0-33000001
B. LeeB. Lee★SS
0-22000010
J. BellJ. BellDH
0-11000000
Team3-3232131127
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
S. Woods RichardsonS. Woods Richardson★SP
6.2511241
K. FunderburkK. FunderburkRP
0.1000000
C. SandsC. SandsRP
2.0100010
J. TopaJ. TopaRP
0.1232101
T. RogersT. RogersRP
0.2000200
Team10.0843552

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

TB

  • N. Martinez
    81 pitches·31% CSW
    • CH
      36%·78.8 mph·44% whiff
    • SI
      21%·92.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      20%·89.2 mph·14% whiff
    • FF
      11%·92.6 mph·33% whiff
    • CU
      10%·80.1 mph·25% whiff
    • SL
      2%·85.8 mph·— whiff
  • G. Jax
    30 pitches·17% CSW
    • CH
      33%·91.9 mph·25% whiff
    • FF
      23%·95.9 mph·20% whiff
    • CU
      17%·86.6 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      17%·89.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      10%·95.4 mph·0% whiff
  • K. Kelly
    19 pitches·32% CSW
    • SI
      47%·91.1 mph·25% whiff
    • CH
      32%·85.6 mph·50% whiff
    • ST
      11%·78.6 mph·— whiff
    • FC
      5%·90.0 mph·— whiff
    • FF
      5%·92.2 mph·0% whiff
  • B. Baker
    14 pitches·36% CSW
    • FF
      50%·97.4 mph·100% whiff
    • CH
      36%·82.6 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      14%·87.8 mph·0% whiff

MIN

  • S. Woods Richardson
    88 pitches·24% CSW
    • FF
      47%·91.9 mph·21% whiff
    • FS
      28%·86.5 mph·9% whiff
    • SL
      19%·85.2 mph·25% whiff
    • CU
      6%·77.2 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Sands
    21 pitches·38% CSW
    • FF
      57%·93.4 mph·33% whiff
    • FS
      14%·87.4 mph·— whiff
    • CU
      10%·80.7 mph·100% whiff
    • FC
      10%·87.6 mph·100% whiff
    • SI
      10%·92.3 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Rogers
    18 pitches·11% CSW
    • SI
      56%·90.5 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      28%·77.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      17%·87.3 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Topa
    15 pitches·0% CSW
    • SI
      47%·92.3 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      27%·90.1 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      27%·80.3 mph·0% whiff
  • K. Funderburk
    3 pitches·67% CSW
    • FC
      67%·90.9 mph·— whiff
    • ST
      33%·80.8 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

8

Hits

3

4

Runs

1

0

Errors

0

Current series

TB wins series 2-1

Apr 3TBTB4@MINMIN10
Apr 4TBTB7@MINMIN1
Apr 5TBTB4@MINMIN1today

Season series

TB leads series 2-1

Apr 3TBTB4@MINMIN10
Apr 4TBTB7@MINMIN1
Apr 5TBTB4@MINMIN1today
Apr 24MINMIN2@TBTB6
Apr 25MINMIN1@TBTB6
Apr 26MINMIN2@TBTB4

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

TB -1.5

Total

8.0

Defensive · -0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

TBTB-10852%
MINMIN-11253%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet TB -1.5↗SpreadBet TB -1.5↗

Line movement · 11 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

8.0

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowTB ↔ MIN

Biggest swing: 36pp · Top 10th Inning

TBTB
R. Palacios

R. Palacios

2B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-3 · 1 HR · 2.417 OPS

N. Martinez

N. Martinez

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 4 K · 1 ER · 1 H · 1 BB

MINMIN
M. Wallner

M. Wallner

RF

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.750 OPS

S. Woods Richardson

S. Woods Richardson

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.2 IP · 4 K · 1 ER · 5 H · 2 BB

How it ended

TB beat MIN 4-1. Palacios's play in the top 10th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (36pp).

Last play

End of the 10th inning

Win probability

MIN vs TB

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9I10

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
TBTop 4th Inning · 1-1
+12pp→ 38% WP

Caminero · homered to left (397 feet).

MINTop 8th Inning · 1-1
+17pp→ 62% WP

Aranda · grounded into double play, second to shortstop to first, Díaz out at second.

TBTop 10th Inning · 3-1
+36pp→ 82% WP

Palacios · homered to right (382 feet), Williamson scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team12345678910R
TB00010000034
MIN01000000001

Period scoring

TB won 2 · MIN won 1

0
0

Inn 1

0
1

Inn 2

Wallner 1

0
0

Inn 3

1
0

Inn 4

Caminero 1

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0
0

Inn 9

3
0

Inn 10

Palacios 2

TB
MIN

Play-by-play · 570 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 10

    End of the 10th inning

    TB 4·MIN 1

  2. B10

    · ·

    TB 4·MIN 1

  3. B10

    Bell lined out to right.

    · ·

    TB 4·MIN 1

    −1pp

  4. B10

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    TB 4·MIN 1

  5. B10

    Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    TB 4·MIN 1

  6. B10

    Pitch 3 : Ball 3

    · ·

    TB 4·MIN 1

  7. B10

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    TB 4·MIN 1

  8. B10

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    TB 4·MIN 1

  9. B10

    Kevin Kelly pitches to Josh Bell

    · ·

    TB 4·MIN 1

  10. B10

    Bell hit for Martin

    ·

    TB 4·MIN 1

  11. B10

    · ·

    TB 4·MIN 1

  12. B10

    Larnach flied out to center.

    · ·

    TB 4·MIN 1

    −3pp

  13. B10

    Pitch 9 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    TB 4·MIN 1

  14. B10

    Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    TB 4·MIN 1

  15. B10

    Pitch 7 : Ball 3

    · ·

    TB 4·MIN 1

  16. B10

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    TB 4·MIN 1

  17. B10

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    TB 4·MIN 1

  18. B10

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    TB 4·MIN 1

  19. B10

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    TB 4·MIN 1

  20. B10

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    TB 4·MIN 1

  21. B10

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    TB 4·MIN 1

  22. B10

    Kevin Kelly pitches to Trevor Larnach

    · ·

    TB 4·MIN 1

  23. B10

    · ·

    TB 4·MIN 1

  24. B10

    Jeffers struck out swinging.

    · ·

    TB 4·MIN 1

    −3pp

  25. B10

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    TB 4·MIN 1

  26. B10

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    · ·

    TB 4·MIN 1

  27. B10

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    TB 4·MIN 1

  28. B10

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    TB 4·MIN 1

  29. B10

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    TB 4·MIN 1

  30. B10

    Kevin Kelly pitches to Ryan Jeffers

    ·

    TB 4·MIN 1

Team stats

TB

Away

Stat

MIN

Home

4

Runs

1

8

Hits

3

0

Errors

0

14

TB

6

2

HR

1

5

BB

2

5

K

7

16

LOB

9

Betting line

TB -1.5·O/U 8·TB -108/MIN -112

DraftKings · via ESPN

Player projections

MIN vs TB.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 77 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Taj BradleyMIN
    6.6± 3.3low
  • Joe RyanMIN
    5.9± 3.1low
  • Zebby MatthewsMIN
    5.7± 0.8low

Hits

  • Yandy DiazTB
    1.3± 1.2high
  • Orlando ArciaMIN
    1.1± 1.4low
  • Chandler SimpsonTB
    1.1± 1.0high

Total bases

  • Byron BuxtonMIN
    2.5± 2.7high
  • Yandy DiazTB
    2.4± 2.3high
  • Victor Mesa Jr.TB
    2.0± 2.3low

RBIs

  • Jonathan ArandaTB
    0.8± 0.8high
  • Yandy DiazTB
    0.8± 1.4high
  • Junior CamineroTB
    0.7± 1.4high

Earned runs

  • Simeon Woods RichardsonMIN
    3.6± 3.0low
  • Connor PrielippMIN
    2.7± 2.7low
  • Steven MatzTB
    2.6± 2.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.8%

ensemble · TB favored

  • Elo Static

    49.6%

    P(MIN win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    45.1%

    P(MIN win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    48.9%

    P(MIN win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.97 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

87% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort
  • Byron BuxtonMIN · CF
    SPRINT29.597
  • Chandler SimpsonTB · LF
    SPRINT29.496
  • Jonny DeLucaTB · RF
    SPRINT2993
  • Luke KeaschallMIN · 2B
    SPRINT28.688
  • Ben WilliamsonTB · 2B
    SPRINT28.381