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FINAL+2MIA
MIL

MIL

12-9

3
5
MIA

MIA

10-12

loanDepot park · Miami, Florida
24,553 attended

Line movement

15 snapshots

MIA spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 7.5

MIA no-vig %

51.1%

open 51.1%

+2.0+1.0MIA SPREADO/U 8.0O/U 7.0TOTAL55.1%47.1%MIA NO-VIG %May 3, 7 PMMay 25, 8 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = MIA favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

MIA wins

MIL 3 · MIA 5 (by 2)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked MIL +5pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
MIL0000010203
MIA300002005

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →
MLB·Sun, Apr 19·Final/SeriesMIL wins series 2-1/VegasMIA -115

Recap · MLB

Miami Marlins held off Milwaukee Brewers, 5–3.

MIA +1.5 cashed (MIL lost outright). Total cleared the 7.5 OVER by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

MIL · top performer

MIL
Sal Frelick

Sal Frelick

RF

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

MIA · top performer

MIA
Liam Hicks

Liam Hicks

C

1.417OPS

3-2

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · Milwaukee Brewers at Miami Marlins · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
MIL12-9
3
5
MIA10-12
MIL12-9·MIA10-12
MIL

MIL

12-9

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
G. MitchellG. Mitchell★CF
0-33101012
SPRINT29.798
B. TurangB. Turang★2B
1-33010011
SPRINT28.586
G. SanchezG. Sanchez★DH
1-44012000
SPRINT24.12
J. BauersJ. Bauers★1B
0-33000001
L. RengifoL. Rengifo★3B
1-44010001
SPRINT27.148
B. LockridgeB. Lockridge★LF
1-44010003
G. JonesG. Jones★LF
0-22000001
L. MatosL. Matos★RF
0-22000001
D. HamiltonD. Hamilton★SS
0-22100010
W. ContrerasW. ContrerasC
0-11000000
B. PerkinsB. PerkinsCF
0-22000000
S. FrelickS. FrelickRF
1-11110000
SPRINT28.790
Team5-31313530310
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. MisiorowskiJ. Misiorowski★SP
5.0431390
D. HallD. HallRP
0.1222210
G. AndersonG. AndersonRP
0.2000000
C. RodriguezC. RodriguezRP
2.0200030
Team8.08535130
MIA

MIA

10-12

5
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. MarseeJ. Marsee★CF
0-33100022
X. EdwardsX. Edwards★2B
1-44110012
SPRINT2872
O. LopezO. Lopez★SS
1-44110000
SPRINT28.381
K. StowersK. Stowers★LF
2-33020001
SPRINT2622
A. RamirezA. Ramirez★C
0-44000001
L. HicksL. Hicks★C
2-33121010
SPRINT25.614
C. NorbyC. Norby★1B
0-44000004
O. CaissieO. Caissie★RF
1-44110002
G. PauleyG. Pauley★3B
0-11000011
J. SanojaJ. Sanoja3B
1-22012000
SPRINT28.381
Team8-32325830513
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
E. PerezE. Perez★SP
6.0310170
M. PetersenM. PetersenRP
1.2111010
C. FaucherC. FaucherRP
0.1000000
P. FairbanksP. FairbanksRP
1.0000020
Team9.05323100

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

MIL

  • J. Misiorowski
    97 pitches·31% CSW
    • FF
      64%·99.7 mph·39% whiff
    • SL
      29%·95.4 mph·21% whiff
    • CU
      7%·88.4 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Rodriguez
    32 pitches·31% CSW
    • CH
      44%·87.6 mph·55% whiff
    • FC
      28%·90.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      22%·94.0 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      6%·82.0 mph·0% whiff
  • D. Hall
    19 pitches·32% CSW
    • SI
      42%·95.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      21%·80.8 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      16%·94.3 mph·100% whiff
    • ST
      16%·83.8 mph·— whiff
    • CH
      5%·87.5 mph·0% whiff
  • G. Anderson
    6 pitches·33% CSW
    • ST
      50%·80.6 mph·100% whiff
    • FF
      33%·93.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      17%·89.6 mph·0% whiff

MIA

  • E. Perez
    84 pitches·32% CSW
    • FF
      67%·97.9 mph·22% whiff
    • SL
      13%·88.0 mph·100% whiff
    • ST
      12%·82.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      5%·88.6 mph·100% whiff
    • CU
      4%·80.3 mph·0% whiff
  • M. Petersen
    23 pitches·35% CSW
    • FF
      65%·97.0 mph·38% whiff
    • CH
      17%·88.4 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      17%·89.1 mph·0% whiff
  • A. Nardi
    15 pitches·13% CSW
    • FF
      53%·95.5 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      40%·83.3 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      7%·85.1 mph·— whiff
  • P. Fairbanks
    13 pitches·46% CSW
    • FF
      69%·97.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      23%·89.2 mph·100% whiff
    • SL
      8%·82.2 mph·— whiff
  • C. Faucher
    2 pitches·50% CSW
    • ST
      100%·85.5 mph·50% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

5

Hits

8

3

Runs

5

1

Errors

1

Current series

MIL wins series 2-1

Apr 17MILMIL7@MIAMIA5
Apr 18MILMIL5@MIAMIA2
Apr 19MILMIL3@MIAMIA5today

Season series

MIL leads series 2-1

Apr 17MILMIL7@MIAMIA5
Apr 18MILMIL5@MIAMIA2
Apr 19MILMIL3@MIAMIA5today
Jul 17MIAMIA@MILMILupcoming
Jul 18MIAMIA@MILMILupcoming
Jul 19MIAMIA@MILMILupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

MIL -1.5

Total

7.5

Defensive · -1.0 vs avg

Moneyline

MILMIL-10551%
MIAMIA-11553%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet MIL -1.5↗SpreadBet MIL -1.5↗

Line movement · 15 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

7.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowMIL ↔ MIA

Biggest swing: 9pp · Top 4th Inning

MILMIL
S. Frelick

S. Frelick

RF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 1 R · 2.000 OPS

J. Misiorowski

J. Misiorowski

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 9 K · 1 ER · 4 H · 3 BB

MIAMIA
L. Hicks

L. Hicks

C

Batter of the game

2-for-3 · 1 R · 1.417 OPS

E. Perez

E. Perez

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 7 K · 0 ER · 3 H · 1 BB

How it ended

MIA beat MIL 5-3.

Win probability

MIA vs MIL

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
MIABottom 1st Inning · 0-1
+8pp→ 74% WP

Stowers · hit by pitch.

MIATop 4th Inning · 0-3
+9pp→ 85% WP

Sánchez grounded into double play, third to second to first, Turang out at second.

MIABottom 8th Inning · 3-5
+8pp→ 94% WP

Sanoja · flied out to left.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
MIL0000010203
MIA30000200—5

Period scoring

MIL won 1 · MIA won 2

0
3

Inn 1

Stowers 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

1
2

Inn 6

Mitchell 1

Sanoja 2

0
0

Inn 7

2
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

MIL
MIA

Play-by-play · 569 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    MIL 3·MIA 5

  2. T9

    Perkins grounded out to second.

    ·

    MIL 3·MIA 5

    +0.9pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 7 : Ball In Play

    ·

    MIL 3·MIA 5

  4. T9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    MIL 3·MIA 5

  5. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    MIL 3·MIA 5

  6. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 3

    ·

    MIL 3·MIA 5

  7. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    MIL 3·MIA 5

  8. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    MIL 3·MIA 5

  9. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    MIL 3·MIA 5

  10. T9

    Pete Fairbanks pitches to Blake Perkins

    ·

    MIL 3·MIA 5

  11. T9

    ·

    MIL 3·MIA 5

  12. T9

    Lockridge struck out swinging.

    ·

    MIL 3·MIA 5

    +2pp

  13. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    MIL 3·MIA 5

  14. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    MIL 3·MIA 5

  15. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    MIL 3·MIA 5

  16. T9

    Pete Fairbanks pitches to Brandon Lockridge

    ·

    MIL 3·MIA 5

  17. T9

    ·

    MIL 3·MIA 5

  18. T9

    Rengifo struck out looking.

    ·

    MIL 3·MIA 5

    +4pp

  19. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Looking

    ·

    MIL 3·MIA 5

  20. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    MIL 3·MIA 5

  21. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    MIL 3·MIA 5

  22. T9

    Pete Fairbanks pitches to Luis Rengifo

    ·

    MIL 3·MIA 5

  23. T9

    Fairbanks relieved Faucher

    ·

    MIL 3·MIA 5

  24. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    MIL 3·MIA 5

  25. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    MIL 3·MIA 5

  26. B8

    ·

    MIL 3·MIA 5

  27. B8

    Edwards struck out swinging.

    ·

    MIL 3·MIA 5

  28. B8

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    MIL 3·MIA 5

  29. B8

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    ·

    MIL 3·MIA 5

  30. B8

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    MIL 3·MIA 5

Team stats

MIL

Away

Stat

MIA

Home

3

Runs

5

5

Hits

8

1

Errors

1

6

TB

11

0

HR

0

3

BB

5

10

K

13

8

LOB

23

Betting line

MIL -1.5·O/U 7.5·MIL -105/MIA -115

DraftKings · via ESPN

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-105

Close price

-105

Open no-vig

48.9%

Close no-vig

48.9%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Player projections

MIA vs MIL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 89 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Jacob MisiorowskiMIL
    9.0± 2.7low
  • Max MeyerMIA
    6.2± 2.2low
  • Kyle HarrisonMIL
    6.1± 4.9low

Hits

  • William ContrerasMIL
    1.4± 1.1high
  • Otto LopezMIA
    1.2± 1.4high
  • Xavier EdwardsMIA
    1.2± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Christian YelichMIL
    2.0± 2.4high
  • Xavier EdwardsMIA
    1.9± 1.6high
  • Kyle StowersMIA
    1.8± 2.7high

RBIs

  • Heriberto HernandezMIA
    0.8± 1.3high
  • Javier SanojaMIA
    0.8± 1.7high
  • Owen CaissieMIA
    0.8± 1.0high

Earned runs

  • Sandy AlcantaraMIA
    3.6± 3.8low
  • Janson JunkMIA
    3.0± 3.8low
  • Brandon SproatMIL
    2.9± 2.7low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.7%

ensemble · MIL favored

  • Elo Static

    45.4%

    P(MIA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    42.1%

    P(MIA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    45.2%

    P(MIA win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.51 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

90% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort
  • Garrett MitchellMIL · CF
    SPRINT29.798
  • Brandon LockridgeMIL · LF
    SPRINT29.294
  • Joey OrtizMIL · SS
    SPRINT28.790
  • Brice TurangMIL · 2B
    SPRINT28.586
  • Owen CaissieMIA · RF
    SPRINT28.586

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 18, 26sim 97
    85
    28(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 12, 26sim 96
    104
    30(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 18, 26sim 96
    250
    3(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 22, 26sim 95
    82
    6(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 15, 26sim 95
    53
    24(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Mar 26, 26sim 94
    107
    26(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs