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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+3MIL
MIL

MIL

12-8

5
2
MIA

MIA

9-12

loanDepot park · Miami, Florida
15,446 attended

Line movement

11 snapshots

MIA spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 7.5

MIA no-vig %

52.2%

open 52.2%

+2.0+1.0MIA SPREADO/U 8.0O/U 7.0TOTAL56.2%48.2%MIA NO-VIG %May 4, 10 AMMay 30, 8 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = MIA favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

MIL wins

MIL 5 · MIA 2 (by 3)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked MIL +3pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
MIL0001220005
MIA0100000012

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 22, 26sim 97
    171
    30(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 19, 26sim 97
    83
    28(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 22, 26sim 97
    82
    6(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Mar 26, 26sim 95
    107
    26(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 23, 26sim 94
    84
    6(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 19, 26sim 94
    254
    3(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+100

Close price

+100

Open no-vig

47.8%

Close no-vig

47.8%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

MLB·Sat, Apr 18·Final/SeriesMIL wins series 2-1/VegasMIA -120

Recap · MLB

Milwaukee Brewers went into Miami Marlins and beat them, 5–2.

MIL -1.5 cashed (won by 3). Total stayed UNDER 7.5 by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

MIL · top performer

MIL
Brice Turang

Brice Turang

2B

2.467OPS

3-2

AB-H

1

R

3

RBI

MIA · top performer

MIA
Liam Hicks

Liam Hicks

C

1.000OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

MLB · Milwaukee Brewers at Miami Marlins · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
MIL12-8
5
2
MIA9-12
MIL12-8·MIA9-12
MIL

MIL

12-8

5
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
S. FrelickS. Frelick★RF
1-55011000
SPRINT28.790
W. ContrerasW. Contreras★C
0-44100011
SPRINT24.96
B. TurangB. Turang★2B
2-33123120
SPRINT28.586
G. SanchezG. Sanchez★DH
0-33000011
J. BauersJ. Bauers★1B
0-55000000
L. RengifoL. Rengifo★3B
1-44110010
SPRINT27.148
G. MitchellG. Mitchell★CF
0-22100031
B. LockridgeB. Lockridge★LF
1-44011012
SPRINT29.294
J. OrtizJ. Ortiz★SS
0-22100020
Team5-32325551115
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
B. WoodruffB. Woodruff★SP
7.0311140
J. WoodfordJ. WoodfordRP
1.1511000
A. UribeA. UribeRP
0.2000000
Team9.0822140
MIA

MIA

9-12

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. MarseeJ. Marsee★CF
1-44010000
SPRINT27.765
X. EdwardsX. Edwards★2B
1-44010001
SPRINT2872
A. RamirezA. Ramirez★C
0-44000001
L. HicksL. Hicks★C
2-44120000
SPRINT25.614
O. LopezO. Lopez★SS
1-44110000
SPRINT28.381
C. NorbyC. Norby★1B
2-44021000
SPRINT2872
O. CaissieO. Caissie★RF
1-44010002
H. HernandezH. Hernandez★LF
0-44001000
J. SanojaJ. Sanoja★3B
0-33000010
Team8-3535282014
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
S. AlcantaraS. Alcantara★SP
5.0432611
A. BenderA. BenderRP
0.2122220
L. BacharL. BacharRP
2.1000210
J. KingJ. KingRP
1.0000110
Team9.05541151

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

MIL

  • B. Woodruff
    92 pitches·28% CSW
    • FF
      33%·92.1 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      26%·82.7 mph·53% whiff
    • SI
      18%·92.1 mph·11% whiff
    • FC
      16%·89.1 mph·13% whiff
    • CU
      7%·75.9 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Woodford
    33 pitches·24% CSW
    • FC
      52%·90.1 mph·25% whiff
    • CH
      24%·85.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      18%·94.1 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      6%·82.6 mph·0% whiff
  • A. Uribe
    4 pitches·25% CSW
    • SI
      50%·99.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      50%·86.4 mph·— whiff

MIA

  • S. Alcantara
    97 pitches·27% CSW
    • SI
      27%·97.6 mph·17% whiff
    • CH
      22%·91.0 mph·57% whiff
    • FF
      21%·97.4 mph·13% whiff
    • FC
      12%·90.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      12%·84.6 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      6%·84.5 mph·33% whiff
  • L. Bachar
    40 pitches·23% CSW
    • FF
      45%·95.3 mph·29% whiff
    • SL
      20%·90.5 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      15%·83.5 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      13%·86.4 mph·— whiff
    • CU
      8%·86.7 mph·0% whiff
  • A. Bender
    26 pitches·31% CSW
    • ST
      42%·83.6 mph·75% whiff
    • SI
      35%·95.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      15%·86.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      4%·87.1 mph·— whiff
    • FF
      4%·95.0 mph·— whiff
  • J. King
    10 pitches·30% CSW
    • SI
      40%·91.2 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      30%·82.0 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      20%·83.9 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      10%·79.1 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

5

Hits

8

5

Runs

2

1

Errors

1

Current series

MIL wins series 2-1

Apr 17MILMIL7@MIAMIA5
Apr 18MILMIL5@MIAMIA2today
Apr 19MILMIL3@MIAMIA5

Season series

MIL leads series 2-0

Apr 17MILMIL7@MIAMIA5
Apr 18MILMIL5@MIAMIA2today
Apr 19MILMIL3@MIAMIA5
Jul 17MIAMIA@MILMILupcoming
Jul 18MIAMIA@MILMILupcoming
Jul 19MIAMIA@MILMILupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

MIL -1.5

Total

7.5

Defensive · -1.0 vs avg

Moneyline

MILMIL+10050%
MIAMIA-12055%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet MIL -1.5↗SpreadBet MIL -1.5↗

Line movement · 11 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

7.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowMIL ↔ MIA

Biggest swing: 22pp · Bottom 3rd Inning

MILMIL
B. Turang

B. Turang

2B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-3 · 1 HR · 2.467 OPS

B. Woodruff

B. Woodruff

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

7.0 IP · 4 K · 1 ER · 3 H · 1 BB

MIAMIA
L. Hicks

L. Hicks

C

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 R · 1.000 OPS

S. Alcantara

S. Alcantara

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 1 K · 2 ER · 4 H · 6 BB

How it ended

MIL beat MIA 5-2. Sanoja's play in the bottom 3rd inning drove the biggest swing of the night (22pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

MIA vs MIL

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
MIABottom 3rd Inning · 0-1
+22pp→ 68% WP

Sanoja · walked.

MILTop 4th Inning · 1-1
+13pp→ 51% WP

Lockridge · singled to center, Rengifo scored.

MILTop 5th Inning · 3-1
+21pp→ 78% WP

Turang · homered to center (402 feet), Contreras scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
MIL0001220005
MIA0100000012

Period scoring

MIL won 3 · MIA won 2

0
0

Inn 1

0
1

Inn 2

Norby 1

0
0

Inn 3

1
0

Inn 4

Lockridge 1

2
0

Inn 5

Turang 2

2
0

Inn 6

Frelick 1

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0
1

Inn 9

Hern 1

MIL
MIA

Play-by-play · 591 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    MIL 5·MIA 2

  2. B9

    · ·

    MIL 5·MIA 2

  3. B9

    Sanoja grounded out to second.

    · ·

    MIL 5·MIA 2

    −3pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    MIL 5·MIA 2

  5. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    MIL 5·MIA 2

  6. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    MIL 5·MIA 2

  7. B9

    Abner Uribe pitches to Javier Sanoja

    · ·

    MIL 5·MIA 2

  8. B9

    · ·

    MIL 5·MIA 2

  9. B9

    Hernández grounded into fielder's choice to third, Lopez scored, Caissie out at second, Norby to third.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    MIL 5·MIA 2

    −5pp

  10. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    MIL 5·MIA 2

  11. B9

    Abner Uribe pitches to Heriberto Hernandez

    · ·

    MIL 5·MIA 2

  12. B9

    Uribe relieved Woodford

    ·

    MIL 5·MIA 1

  13. B9

    · ·

    MIL 5·MIA 1

  14. B9

    Caissie singled to right, Norby to second, Lopez to third.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    MIL 5·MIA 1

    +5pp

  15. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    MIL 5·MIA 1

  16. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    MIL 5·MIA 1

  17. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    MIL 5·MIA 1

  18. B9

    Jake Woodford pitches to Owen Caissie

    · ·

    MIL 5·MIA 1

  19. B9

    · ·

    MIL 5·MIA 1

  20. B9

    Norby singled to center, Lopez to second.

    · ·

    MIL 5·MIA 1

    +2pp

  21. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    MIL 5·MIA 1

  22. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    · ·

    MIL 5·MIA 1

  23. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    MIL 5·MIA 1

  24. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    MIL 5·MIA 1

  25. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    MIL 5·MIA 1

  26. B9

    Jake Woodford pitches to Connor Norby

    · ·

    MIL 5·MIA 1

  27. B9

    ·

    MIL 5·MIA 1

  28. B9

    Lopez singled to center.

    ·

    MIL 5·MIA 1

    +0.9pp

  29. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    MIL 5·MIA 1

  30. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    MIL 5·MIA 1

Team stats

MIL

Away

Stat

MIA

Home

5

Runs

2

5

Hits

8

1

Errors

1

9

TB

8

1

HR

0

11

BB

1

5

K

4

22

LOB

15

Betting line

MIL -1.5·O/U 7.5·MIL +100/MIA -120

DraftKings · via ESPN

Player projections

MIA vs MIL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 89 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Jacob MisiorowskiMIL
    9.0± 2.7low
  • Max MeyerMIA
    6.2± 2.2low
  • Kyle HarrisonMIL
    6.1± 4.9low

Hits

  • William ContrerasMIL
    1.4± 1.1high
  • Otto LopezMIA
    1.2± 1.4high
  • Xavier EdwardsMIA
    1.2± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Christian YelichMIL
    2.0± 2.4high
  • Xavier EdwardsMIA
    1.9± 1.6high
  • Kyle StowersMIA
    1.8± 2.7high

RBIs

  • Heriberto HernandezMIA
    0.8± 1.3high
  • Javier SanojaMIA
    0.8± 1.7high
  • Owen CaissieMIA
    0.8± 1.0high

Earned runs

  • Sandy AlcantaraMIA
    3.6± 3.8low
  • Janson JunkMIA
    3.0± 3.8low
  • Brandon SproatMIL
    2.9± 2.7low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.8%

ensemble · MIL favored

  • Elo Static

    46.6%

    P(MIA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    45.3%

    P(MIA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    46.4%

    P(MIA win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.57 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort
  • Garrett MitchellMIL · CF
    SPRINT29.798
  • Brandon LockridgeMIL · LF
    SPRINT29.294
  • Sal FrelickMIL · RF
    SPRINT28.790
  • Brice TurangMIL · 2B
    SPRINT28.586
  • Owen CaissieMIA · RF
    SPRINT28.586