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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+7NYY
NYY

NYY

1-0

7
0
SF

SF

0-1

Oracle Park · San Francisco, California
40,856 attended

Line movement

7 snapshots

SF spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 7.0

open O/U 7.0

SF no-vig %

46.8%

open 46.8%

+2.0+1.0SF SPREADO/U 7.5O/U 6.5TOTAL50.8%42.8%SF NO-VIG %May 4, 11 AMMay 28, 4 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = SF favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

NYY wins

NYY 7 · SF 0 (by 7)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked NYY +5pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
NYY0500200007
SF0000000000

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 18, 26sim 95
    85
    28(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 12, 26sim 94
    104
    30(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 19, 26sim 94
    83
    28(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 22, 26sim 94
    82
    6(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 4, 26sim 94
    85
    7(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 16, 26sim 94
    226
    23(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-126

Close price

-126

Open no-vig

53.2%

Close no-vig

53.2%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

MLB·Wed, Mar 25·Final/SeriesNYY win series 3-0/VegasNYY -126

Recap · MLB

New York Yankees went into San Francisco Giants and beat them, 7–0. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

NYY -1.5 cashed (won by 7). Total pushed exactly on 7.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NYY · top performer

NYY
Austin Wells

Austin Wells

C

1.417OPS

3-2

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

SF · top performer

SF
Luis Arraez

Luis Arraez

2B

0.833OPS

3-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MLB · New York Yankees at San Francisco Giants · final

MLB · Box scoreADVANCED

Final
NYY1-0
7
0
SF0-1
NYY1-0·SF0-1
NYY

NYY

1-0

7
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
T. GrishamT. Grisham★CF
1-55012001
SPRINT26.735
A. JudgeA. Judge★RF
0-55000004
C. BellingerC. Bellinger★LF
1-55110002
B. RiceB. Rice★1B
1-44110012
G. StantonG. Stanton★DH
2-44121001
SPRINT23.81
J. Chisholm Jr.J. Chisholm Jr.★2B
1-33110000
J. CaballeroJ. Caballero★SS
1-44111000
SPRINT28.278
R. McMahonR. McMahon★3B
1-33112012
SPRINT2622
A. WellsA. Wells★C
2-33120010
SPRINT25.18
Team10-363671060312
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
M. FriedM. Fried★SP
6.1200140
J. BirdJ. BirdRP
0.2000010
B. HeadrickB. HeadrickRP
1.0100110
C. DovalC. DovalRP
1.0000000
Team9.0300260
SF

SF

0-1

0
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
L. ArraezL. Arraez★2B
1-33010010
SPRINT26.632
M. ChapmanM. Chapman★3B
0-33000010
SPRINT28.175
R. DeversR. Devers★1B
1-44010000
SPRINT25.716
W. AdamesW. Adames★SS
0-44000001
SPRINT27.457
J. LeeJ. Lee★RF
0-44000000
H. RamosH. Ramos★LF
1-44010002
SPRINT27.251
C. SchmittC. Schmitt★DH
0-33000000
P. BaileyP. Bailey★C
0-33000001
H. BaderH. Bader★CF
0-33000002
Team3-3131030026
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
L. WebbL. Webb★SP
5.0976170
K. WinnK. WinnRP
1.0000120
J. BrubakerJ. BrubakerRP
2.0100120
C. KilianC. KilianRP
1.0000010
Team9.010763120

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

10

Hits

3

7

Runs

0

1

Errors

1

Current series

NYY win series 3-0

Mar 26NYYNYY7@SFSF0today
Mar 27NYYNYY3@SFSF0
Mar 28NYYNYY3@SFSF1

Season series

NYY lead series 1-0

Mar 26NYYNYY7@SFSF0today
Mar 27NYYNYY3@SFSF0
Mar 28NYYNYY3@SFSF1

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

NYY -1.5

Total

7.0

Defensive · -1.5 vs avg

Moneyline

NYYNYY-12656%
SFSF+10449%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet NYY -1.5↗SpreadBet NYY -1.5↗

Line movement · 7 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

7.0

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowNYY ↔ SF

Biggest swing: 14pp · Top 2nd Inning

NYYNYY
A. Wells

A. Wells

C

Batter of the game

2-for-3 · 1 R · 1.417 OPS

M. Fried

M. Fried

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.1 IP · 4 K · 0 ER · 2 H · 1 BB

SFSF
L. Arraez

L. Arraez

2B

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 0.833 OPS

L. Webb

L. Webb

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 7 K · 6 ER · 9 H · 1 BB

How it ended

NYY beat SF 7-0.

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

SF vs NYY

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
NYYBottom 1st Inning · 0-0
+6pp→ 39% WP

Adames · struck out swinging.

NYYTop 2nd Inning · 3-0
+14pp→ 76% WP

McMahon · singled to center, Chisholm Jr. scored and Caballero scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
NYY0500200007
SF0000000000

Period scoring

NYY won 2 · SF won 0

0
0

Inn 1

5
0

Inn 2

McMahon 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

2
0

Inn 5

Stanton 1

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0
0

Inn 9

NYY
SF

Play-by-play · 526 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    NYY 7·SF 0

  2. B9

    · ·

    NYY 7·SF 0

  3. B9

    Schmitt flied out to right.

    · ·

    NYY 7·SF 0

  4. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    NYY 7·SF 0

  5. B9

    Camilo Doval pitches to Casey Schmitt

    · ·

    NYY 7·SF 0

  6. B9

    · ·

    NYY 7·SF 0

  7. B9

    H. Ramos grounded out to shortstop, Adames to third.

    · ·

    NYY 7·SF 0

  8. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    NYY 7·SF 0

  9. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 3

    · ·

    NYY 7·SF 0

  10. B9

    Adames to second on wild pitch by Doval.

    ·

    NYY 7·SF 0

  11. B9

    Adames to second on wild pitch by Doval.

    ·

    NYY 7·SF 0

  12. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    NYY 7·SF 0

  13. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    NYY 7·SF 0

  14. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    NYY 7·SF 0

  15. B9

    Camilo Doval pitches to Heliot Ramos

    · ·

    NYY 7·SF 0

  16. B9

    · ·

    NYY 7·SF 0

  17. B9

    Lee lined out to center.

    · ·

    NYY 7·SF 0

  18. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    NYY 7·SF 0

  19. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    NYY 7·SF 0

  20. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    NYY 7·SF 0

  21. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    NYY 7·SF 0

  22. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    NYY 7·SF 0

  23. B9

    Camilo Doval pitches to Jung Hoo Lee

    · ·

    NYY 7·SF 0

  24. B9

    ·

    NYY 7·SF 0

  25. B9

    Adames safe at first on fielding error by shortstop Caballero.

    · ·

    NYY 7·SF 0

  26. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    NYY 7·SF 0

  27. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    NYY 7·SF 0

  28. B9

    Camilo Doval pitches to Willy Adames

    ·

    NYY 7·SF 0

  29. B9

    Doval relieved Headrick

    ·

    NYY 7·SF 0

  30. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    NYY 7·SF 0

Team stats

NYY

Away

Stat

SF

Home

7

Runs

0

10

Hits

3

1

Errors

1

12

TB

3

0

HR

0

3

BB

2

12

K

6

15

LOB

13

Betting line

NYY -1.5·O/U 7·NYY -126/SF +104

DraftKings · via ESPN

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 16 players in cohort
  • Jose CaballeroNYY · SS
    SPRINT28.278
  • Jazz Chisholm Jr.NYY · 2B
    SPRINT28.175
  • Matt ChapmanSF · 3B
    SPRINT28.175
  • Casey SchmittSF · DH
    SPRINT2872

Player projections

SF vs NYY.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 74 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Cam SchlittlerNYY
    6.7± 2.0low
  • Ryan WeathersNYY
    6.5± 2.9low
  • Will WarrenNYY
    6.1± 3.3low

Hits

  • Jung Hoo LeeSF
    1.3± 1.1high
  • Ben RiceNYY
    1.2± 1.3high
  • Luis ArraezSF
    1.2± 1.0high

Total bases

  • Ben RiceNYY
    2.4± 2.8high
  • Casey SchmittSF
    2.4± 2.2high
  • Willy AdamesSF
    2.3± 2.3high

RBIs

  • Casey SchmittSF
    0.9± 1.3high
  • Ben RiceNYY
    0.8± 1.1high
  • Rafael DeversSF
    0.8± 1.6high

Earned runs

  • Adrian HouserSF
    3.1± 2.9low
  • Logan WebbSF
    3.1± 2.6low
  • Robbie RaySF
    2.8± 3.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.7%

ensemble · NYY favored

  • Elo Static

    45.2%

    P(SF win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    43.3%

    P(SF win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    44.8%

    P(SF win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.81 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.