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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+3MIL
MIL

MIL

6-1

5
2
KC

KC

3-4

Kauffman Stadium · Kansas City, Missouri
17,055 attended

Line movement

23 snapshots

KC spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.5

KC no-vig %

48.9%

open 48.9%

+2.0+1.0KC SPREADO/U 9.0O/U 8.0TOTAL52.9%44.9%KC NO-VIG %May 4, 10 AMMay 30, 6 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = KC favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

MIL wins

MIL 5 · KC 2 (by 3)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked MIL +3pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
MIL2030000005
KC0000002002

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-115

Close price

-115

Open no-vig

51.1%

Close no-vig

51.1%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 7, 26sim 95
    82
    2(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 8, 26sim 95
    80
    2(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 23, 26sim 95
    104
    2(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 22, 26sim 95
    104
    2(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 4, 26sim 95
    82
    7(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 22, 26sim 94
    82
    6(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Sat, Apr 4·Final/SeriesMIL wins series 2-1/VegasMIL -115

Recap · MLB

Milwaukee Brewers went into Kansas City Royals and beat them, 5–2.

MIL -1.5 cashed (won by 3). Total stayed UNDER 8.5 by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

MIL · top performer

MIL
Garrett Mitchell

Garrett Mitchell

CF

1.750OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

5

RBI

KC · top performer

KC
Lane Thomas

Lane Thomas

CF

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · Milwaukee Brewers at Kansas City Royals · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
MIL6-1
5
2
KC3-4
MIL6-1·KC3-4
MIL

MIL

6-1

5
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
B. TurangB. Turang★2B
0-44000013
L. RengifoL. Rengifo★3B
2-55120001
SPRINT27.148
W. ContrerasW. Contreras★C
1-44110011
SPRINT24.96
C. YelichC. Yelich★DH
2-55220002
SPRINT27.148
G. MitchellG. Mitchell★CF
2-44125102
SPRINT29.798
J. BauersJ. Bauers★1B
0-33000011
S. FrelickS. Frelick★RF
1-33010010
SPRINT28.790
B. LockridgeB. Lockridge★LF
1-44010001
D. HamiltonD. Hamilton★SS
1-22010021
Team10-343451051612
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. PatrickC. Patrick★RP
5.0400330
A. AshbyA. AshbyRP
1.2422130
A. UribeA. UribeRP
1.1000010
T. MegillT. MegillRP
1.0000220
Team9.0822690
KC

KC

3-4

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
M. GarciaM. Garcia★3B
0-44000012
B. Witt Jr.B. Witt Jr.★SS
1-33011020
SPRINT30.399+
V. PasquantinoV. Pasquantino★1B
1-55010002
SPRINT25.411
S. PerezS. Perez★C
0-44000001
J. CaglianoneJ. Caglianone★RF
2-33020010
SPRINT27.148
S. MarteS. Marte★RF
1-33010002
SPRINT25.411
I. CollinsI. Collins★LF
1-44010001
N. LoftinN. Loftin★2B
0-33100010
K. IsbelK. Isbel★CF
1-22010000
C. JensenC. JensenC
0-11000001
L. ThomasL. ThomasCF
1-11111010
SPRINT28.688
Team8-3333282069
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
L. AvilaL. Avila★RP
3.0855341
D. Lynch IVD. Lynch IVRP
2.0100030
A. LangeA. LangeRP
2.0100140
J. SchreiberJ. SchreiberRP
1.0000200
S. CruzS. CruzRP
1.0000010
Team9.010556121

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

MIL

  • C. Patrick
    86 pitches·24% CSW
    • FC
      31%·88.0 mph·31% whiff
    • SI
      30%·93.6 mph·22% whiff
    • FF
      24%·93.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SV
      12%·84.2 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      2%·88.6 mph·0% whiff
  • A. Ashby
    41 pitches·29% CSW
    • SI
      49%·96.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      22%·90.6 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      15%·83.8 mph·40% whiff
    • FF
      10%·96.2 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      5%·83.5 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Megill
    22 pitches·27% CSW
    • FF
      64%·97.2 mph·0% whiff
    • KC
      36%·86.9 mph·50% whiff
  • A. Uribe
    14 pitches·21% CSW
    • SI
      71%·97.4 mph·25% whiff
    • SL
      29%·85.9 mph·0% whiff

KC

  • L. Avila
    73 pitches·26% CSW
    • FF
      33%·95.6 mph·17% whiff
    • SI
      32%·95.6 mph·18% whiff
    • CU
      19%·82.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      15%·86.3 mph·25% whiff
    • CH
      1%·89.3 mph·— whiff
  • A. Lange
    38 pitches·29% CSW
    • CH
      42%·90.0 mph·25% whiff
    • SL
      29%·87.4 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      13%·95.0 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      8%·91.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      8%·95.2 mph·50% whiff
  • D. Lynch IV
    27 pitches·37% CSW
    • SI
      44%·93.2 mph·25% whiff
    • SL
      37%·85.2 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      11%·93.9 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      4%·85.1 mph·100% whiff
    • KC
      4%·80.2 mph·— whiff
  • J. Schreiber
    19 pitches·16% CSW
    • FC
      37%·88.0 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      37%·90.8 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      11%·84.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      11%·91.2 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      5%·80.9 mph·0% whiff
  • S. Cruz
    18 pitches·28% CSW
    • FF
      56%·96.8 mph·33% whiff
    • FC
      22%·91.9 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      22%·88.4 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

10

Hits

8

5

Runs

2

0

Errors

0

Current series

MIL wins series 2-1

Apr 3MILMIL0@KCKC0
Apr 4MILMIL5@KCKC2today
Apr 4MILMIL2@KCKC8
Apr 5MILMIL8@KCKC5

Season series

MIL leads series 1-0

Apr 3MILMIL0@KCKC0
Apr 4MILMIL5@KCKC2today
Apr 4MILMIL2@KCKC8
Apr 5MILMIL8@KCKC5

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

MIL -1.5

Total

8.5

Standard · 0.0 vs avg

Moneyline

MILMIL-11553%
KCKC-10551%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet MIL -1.5↗SpreadBet MIL -1.5↗

Line movement · 23 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

8.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowMIL ↔ KC

Biggest swing: 18pp · Top 1st Inning

MILMIL
G. Mitchell

G. Mitchell

CF

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.750 OPS

C. Patrick

C. Patrick

RP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 3 K · 0 ER · 4 H · 3 BB

KCKC
L. Thomas

L. Thomas

CF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 1 R · 2.000 OPS

L. Avila

L. Avila

RP

Starting pitcher

3.0 IP · 4 K · 5 ER · 8 H · 3 BB

How it ended

MIL beat KC 5-2. Mitchell's play in the top 1st inning drove the biggest swing of the night (18pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

KC vs MIL

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
MILTop 1st Inning · 2-0
+18pp→ 70% WP

Mitchell · doubled to center, Rengifo scored and Yelich scored.

MILTop 3rd Inning · 5-0
+16pp→ 92% WP

Mitchell · homered to right center (420 feet), Contreras scored and Yelich scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
MIL2030000005
KC0000002002

Period scoring

MIL won 2 · KC won 1

2
0

Inn 1

Mitchell 2

0
0

Inn 2

3
0

Inn 3

Mitchell 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
2

Inn 7

Thomas 1

0
0

Inn 8

0
0

Inn 9

MIL
KC

Play-by-play · 635 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    MIL 5·KC 2

  2. B9

    · ·

    MIL 5·KC 2

  3. B9

    Pasquantino struck out looking.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    MIL 5·KC 2

    −5pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Looking

    · ·

    MIL 5·KC 2

  5. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    MIL 5·KC 2

  6. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    MIL 5·KC 2

  7. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    MIL 5·KC 2

  8. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    MIL 5·KC 2

  9. B9

    Trevor Megill pitches to Vinnie Pasquantino

    · ·

    MIL 5·KC 2

  10. B9

    · ·

    MIL 5·KC 2

  11. B9

    Witt Jr. walked, Thomas to second.

    · ·

    MIL 5·KC 2

    +4pp

  12. B9

    Pitch 7 : Ball 4

    · ·

    MIL 5·KC 2

  13. B9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    MIL 5·KC 2

  14. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    MIL 5·KC 2

  15. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 3

    · ·

    MIL 5·KC 2

  16. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    MIL 5·KC 2

  17. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    MIL 5·KC 2

  18. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    MIL 5·KC 2

  19. B9

    Trevor Megill pitches to Bobby Witt Jr.

    · ·

    MIL 5·KC 2

  20. B9

    · ·

    MIL 5·KC 2

  21. B9

    Garcia struck out swinging.

    · ·

    MIL 5·KC 2

    −3pp

  22. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    MIL 5·KC 2

  23. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    · ·

    MIL 5·KC 2

  24. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    MIL 5·KC 2

  25. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    MIL 5·KC 2

  26. B9

    Trevor Megill pitches to Maikel Garcia

    · ·

    MIL 5·KC 2

  27. B9

    ·

    MIL 5·KC 2

  28. B9

    Thomas walked.

    ·

    MIL 5·KC 2

    +3pp

  29. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 4

    ·

    MIL 5·KC 2

  30. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 3

    ·

    MIL 5·KC 2

Team stats

MIL

Away

Stat

KC

Home

5

Runs

2

10

Hits

8

0

Errors

0

17

TB

11

1

HR

0

6

BB

6

12

K

9

17

LOB

21

Betting line

MIL -1.5·O/U 8.5·MIL -115/KC -105

DraftKings · via ESPN

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort
  • Bobby Witt Jr.KC · SS
    SPRINT30.399+
  • Garrett MitchellMIL · CF
    SPRINT29.798
  • Brandon LockridgeMIL · LF
    SPRINT29.294
  • Sal FrelickMIL · RF
    SPRINT28.790
  • Brice TurangMIL · 2B
    SPRINT28.586

Player projections

KC vs MIL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 90 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Jacob MisiorowskiMIL
    9.0± 2.7low
  • Kyle HarrisonMIL
    6.1± 4.9low
  • Michael WachaKC
    5.4± 2.1low

Hits

  • William ContrerasMIL
    1.4± 1.1high
  • Maikel GarciaKC
    1.1± 0.8high
  • Jake BauersMIL
    1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Christian YelichMIL
    2.0± 2.4high
  • Jake BauersMIL
    1.8± 1.9high
  • William ContrerasMIL
    1.8± 1.8high

RBIs

  • Jake BauersMIL
    0.8± 1.2high
  • Christian YelichMIL
    0.6± 0.8high
  • Garrett MitchellMIL
    0.6± 1.0high

Earned runs

  • Brandon SproatMIL
    2.9± 2.7low
  • Noah CameronKC
    2.7± 2.3low
  • Seth LugoKC
    2.6± 2.9low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.8%

ensemble · MIL favored

  • Elo Static

    47.0%

    P(KC win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    44.1%

    P(KC win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    45.9%

    P(KC win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.19 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

92% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.