Matchup orbital

KC

KC

KC

13-19

Sat, 9:40 PM EDT

Win prob

41/59

AWAY · HOME

SEA

SEA

SEA

16-17

Place your bet

-143Bet SEA ML↗-143Bet SEA ML↗

Direct to DraftKings or FanDuel · 21+ · we may earn a referral fee.

Pregame · scouting report

The matchup, end-to-end.

Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.

Away starter

Seth Lugo

Seth Lugo

SP · #67

1-1

W-L

2.63

ERA

1.17

WHIP

31

K

37.2

IP

Last 3 starts

vsLAA-6.1 IP7 ER3 K
vsBAL-7.0 IP0 ER7 K
@DET-6.2 IP1 ER7 K

Home starter

Emerson Hancock

Emerson Hancock

SP · #26

2-1

W-L

2.86

ERA

0.98

WHIP

32

K

34.2

IP

Last 3 starts

@STL-6.0 IP2 ER4 K
vsATH-5.0 IP3 ER3 K
@SD-6.0 IP2 ER6 K

Vegas line

Spread-1.5
TotalO/U 8
Money+119 / -143

Model edge

Win prob41% / 59%
LeanHome · 9pp
ConfidenceEdge

Head to head

SeriesKC leads series 1-0
TypeCurrent Series

Place a bet

Take SEA on the model side.

Our model leans this way; both DraftKings and FanDuel are open below.

Model side · moneyline

-143Bet SEA ML↗-143Bet SEA ML↗

Other markets

-1.5Bet the run line↗-1.5Bet the run line↗
O/U 8Bet the total↗O/U 8Bet the total↗

21+ in most states. Lines refreshed at the moment of fetch. We may earn a referral fee on book signups — your odds and terms are unchanged.

Model vs marketLean
DraftKings · snapped 10m ago
+2.4ppon SEASEA
KCKCWin prob axisSEASEA
Market 56%
Model 59%
0%50%100%
ModelSEA 59%Pre-game prob
MarketSEA 56%No-vig · 4.5% hold
Edge+2.4ppModel finds value
KCKC +119/SEASEA -143
-143Bet SEA ML↗-143Bet SEA ML↗
The One modelEdge
Sun, May 3
KC

KC

Royals

13-19

vs59%SEA

SEA★

Mariners

16-17

SEA
KC 41%win prob59% SEA
SEA 1521 · KC 1484Box score→
← Back to MLB
MLBGame · Sat, May 25/2 - 9:40 PM EDT
KC

KC13-19

KC

@

16-17SEA

SEA

SEA
SeriesKC leads series 1-0VegasSEA -143

Preview · MLB

ansas City Royals visit Seattle Mariners Saturday at 5/2 - 9:40 PM EDT. SEA is 8-4 in their last 12.

Vegas opened SEA as a 1.5-point favorite with the total at 8.0. SEA's moneyline implies a 59% break-even, KC the inverse.

For bettors: the SEA side carries the favorite-tax, the dog gets the points and a plus-money payout. The 8.0 total reads defensive vs the league average.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Line just movedTotal ↗ 0.5pt over 6.2hjust now
5/2 - 9:40 PM EDTScheduled
Updated 0s ago
KC
KC13-190
5/2 - 9:40 PM EDT
SEA
SEA16-170

Current series

KC leads series 1-0

May 2KCKC7@SEASEA6
May 3KCKC@SEASEAtoday
May 3KCKC@SEASEAupcoming

Season series

KC leads series 1-0

May 2KCKC7@SEASEA6
May 3KCKC@SEASEAtoday
May 3KCKC@SEASEAupcoming
May 22SEASEA@KCKCupcoming
May 23SEASEA@KCKCupcoming
May 24SEASEA@KCKCupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

SEA -1.5

Total

8.0

Defensive · -0.5 vs avg

0.5pt· 6.2h

Moneyline

KCKC+11946%
SEASEA-14359%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet SEA -1.5↗SpreadBet SEA -1.5↗

Line movement · 50 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

+1.5 since open

Total

8.0

+0.5 since open

Pitching matchup · today

ESPN · season stats
KCKCSP
S. Lugo

S. Lugo

#67 · 1-1

ERA

2.63

K

31

SV

—

Last 3 starts

4/26vsLAALAA6.1 IP · 7 ER · 3 K-
4/20vsBALBAL7.0 IP · 0 ER · 7 K-
4/15@DETDET6.2 IP · 1 ER · 7 K-
SEASEASP
E. Hancock

E. Hancock

#26 · 2-1

ERA

2.86

K

32

SV

—

Last 3 starts

4/26@STLSTL6.0 IP · 2 ER · 4 K-
4/21vsATHATH5.0 IP · 3 ER · 3 K-
4/16@SDSD6.0 IP · 2 ER · 6 K-

Scouting report

KC @ SEA

5/2 - 9:40 PM EDT

Rest going in

KCStandard

1 day

last game May 1

SEAStandard

1 day

last game May 1

Model edge vs market

Lean only
Spread

Market

SEA -1.5

Model

On the roadmap

Edge

—

Total

Market

8.0

Model

On the roadmap

Edge

—

Moneyline

Market

SEA -143

Model

On the roadmap

Edge

—

Model spread derived from 21-day power-rank delta · not a true point-spread model. Total + ML model wires roadmap. Bet responsibly · 21+

Tale of the tape

KCmetricSEA

13-19

Record

16-17

#12

Conf rank

#6

-0.6

Pt diff

+0.1

W1

Streak

L1

6-4

Last 10

6-4

Bullpen used yesterday

KC

3.7 bullpen IP · heavy

  • N. Mears0.2 IP15 P
  • D. Lynch IV1.0 IP25 P
  • M. Strahm1.0 IP14 P
  • L. Erceg1.0 IP12 P

W 7-6 · May 1

SEA

3.0 bullpen IP · heavy

  • C. Wilcox1.0 IP20 P
  • J. Ferrer1.0 IP15 P
  • A. Hoppe1.0 IP15 P

L 7-6 · May 1

Composite signals from ESPN standings + 21-day power rolling. NBA pace / ORtg / DRtg from ESPN core team-stats; NFL yards-per-game from nflverse aggregation. Park factors, weather, KenPom-class metrics still on the roadmap.

Team stats

KC

Away

Stat

SEA

Home

256

Hits

254

9

Errors

13

133

Runs

140

Player box score

KC

KC

13-19

0

Betting line

SEA -1.5·O/U 8·KC +119/SEA -143

DraftKings · via ESPN