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FINAL+2MIN
MIN

MIN

12-11

5
3
NYM

NYM

7-16

Citi Field · Queens, New York
32,798 attended

Line movement

14 snapshots

NYM spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 7.5

NYM no-vig %

59.3%

open 59.3%

-1.0-2.0NYM SPREADO/U 8.0O/U 7.0TOTAL63.3%55.3%NYM NO-VIG %May 3, 7 PMMay 29, 2 PM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = NYM favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

MIN wins

MIN 5 · NYM 3 (by 2)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked NYM +3pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
MIN0000021025
NYM0030000003

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+135

Close price

+135

Open no-vig

40.7%

Close no-vig

40.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

MLB·Tue, Apr 21·Final/SeriesNYM win series 2-1/VegasNYM -163

Recap · MLB

Minnesota Twins went into New York Mets and beat them, 5–3.

MIN +1.5 cashed (NYM lost outright). Total cleared the 7.5 OVER by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

MIN · top performer

MIN
Luke Keaschall

Luke Keaschall

2B

1.000OPS

4-2

AB-H

0

R

2

RBI

NYM · top performer

NYM
Francisco Lindor

Francisco Lindor

SS

1.833OPS

3-1

AB-H

1

R

3

RBI

MLB · Minnesota Twins at New York Mets · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
MIN12-11
5
3
NYM7-16
MIN12-11·NYM7-16
MIN

MIN

12-11

5
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
B. BuxtonB. Buxton★CF
1-55112103
SPRINT29.597
T. LarnachT. Larnach★LF
1-44010001
SPRINT26.632
J. BellJ. Bell★DH
0-33000010
R. JeffersR. Jeffers★C
0-33100012
K. ClemensK. Clemens★1B
1-33110001
SPRINT27.457
L. KeaschallL. Keaschall★2B
2-44022001
SPRINT28.688
M. WallnerM. Wallner★RF
1-33111011
SPRINT2622
R. LewisR. Lewis★3B
0-44000002
B. LeeB. Lee★SS
0-44000004
Team6-33335651315
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
S. Woods RichardsonS. Woods Richardson★SP
5.0433321
A. BandaA. BandaRP
1.0000020
J. TopaJ. TopaRP
1.0000010
C. SandsC. SandsRP
2.0000030
Team9.0433381
NYM

NYM

7-16

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
M. SemienM. Semien★2B
0-33100011
SPRINT28.175
F. LindorF. Lindor★SS
1-33113111
SPRINT26.941
L. Robert Jr.L. Robert Jr.★CF
0-44000000
B. BichetteB. Bichette★3B
1-44010000
SPRINT25.716
M. MelendezM. Melendez★DH
0-22000000
F. AlvarezF. Alvarez★C
0-44000001
B. BatyB. Baty★3B
1-22010001
SPRINT26.735
M. VientosM. Vientos★1B
1-22010010
SPRINT25.513
C. BengeC. Benge★RF
0-33100000
L. TorrensL. TorrensC
0-22000002
T. TaylorT. TaylorCF
0-22000002
Team4-3131343138
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
N. McLeanN. McLean★SP
6.25330101
H. BrazobanH. BrazobanRP
1.1000020
A. WarrenA. WarrenRP
1.0000030
Team9.06553151

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

MIN

  • S. Woods Richardson
    95 pitches·24% CSW
    • FF
      42%·92.1 mph·17% whiff
    • FS
      33%·86.5 mph·36% whiff
    • SL
      21%·86.3 mph·29% whiff
    • CU
      4%·76.7 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Sands
    23 pitches·30% CSW
    • FF
      52%·92.4 mph·17% whiff
    • FC
      30%·86.5 mph·50% whiff
    • CU
      9%·80.2 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      9%·91.4 mph·0% whiff
  • A. Banda
    18 pitches·33% CSW
    • SL
      44%·85.0 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      33%·94.5 mph·40% whiff
    • SI
      22%·94.9 mph·50% whiff
  • J. Topa
    17 pitches·29% CSW
    • FC
      41%·92.0 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      35%·94.5 mph·50% whiff
    • ST
      18%·81.3 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      6%·86.6 mph·0% whiff

NYM

  • N. McLean
    99 pitches·31% CSW
    • SI
      44%·95.2 mph·17% whiff
    • ST
      17%·84.5 mph·25% whiff
    • CH
      15%·88.3 mph·44% whiff
    • FF
      12%·96.6 mph·33% whiff
    • CU
      6%·81.2 mph·100% whiff
    • FC
      5%·91.0 mph·0% whiff
  • D. Williams
    21 pitches·14% CSW
    • FF
      62%·93.3 mph·14% whiff
    • CH
      38%·85.1 mph·— whiff
  • H. Brazoban
    16 pitches·44% CSW
    • SI
      69%·95.1 mph·71% whiff
    • CH
      31%·90.1 mph·50% whiff
  • A. Warren
    12 pitches·67% CSW
    • ST
      67%·86.4 mph·75% whiff
    • CU
      17%·84.8 mph·100% whiff
    • FF
      17%·94.4 mph·100% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

6

Hits

4

5

Runs

3

0

Errors

0

Current series

NYM win series 2-1

Apr 21MINMIN5@NYMNYM3today
Apr 22MINMIN2@NYMNYM3
Apr 23MINMIN8@NYMNYM10

Season series

MIN leads series 1-0

Apr 21MINMIN5@NYMNYM3today
Apr 22MINMIN2@NYMNYM3
Apr 23MINMIN8@NYMNYM10

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

NYM -1.5

Total

7.5

Defensive · -1.0 vs avg

Moneyline

MINMIN+13543%
NYMNYM-16362%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet NYM -1.5↗SpreadBet NYM -1.5↗

Line movement · 14 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

7.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowMIN ↔ NYM

Biggest swing: 20pp · Bottom 3rd Inning

MINMIN
B. Buxton

B. Buxton

CF

Batter of the game

1-for-5 · 1 HR · 1.000 OPS

S. Woods Richardson

S. Woods Richardson

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 2 K · 3 ER · 4 H · 3 BB

NYMNYM
F. Lindor

F. Lindor

SS

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1.833 OPS

N. McLean

N. McLean

SP

Starting pitcher10-K game

6.2 IP · 10 K · 3 ER · 5 H

How it ended

MIN beat NYM 5-3. Lindor's play in the bottom 3rd inning drove the biggest swing of the night (20pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

NYM vs MIN

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
NYMBottom 3rd Inning · 0-3
+20pp→ 89% WP

Lindor · homered to right (410 feet), Benge scored and Semien scored.

MINTop 6th Inning · 2-3
+15pp→ 24% WP

Buxton · homered to left (374 feet), Wallner scored.

MINTop 7th Inning · 3-3
+16pp→ 47% WP

Keaschall · singled to center, Clemens scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
MIN0000021025
NYM0030000003

Period scoring

MIN won 3 · NYM won 1

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
3

Inn 3

Lindor 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

2
0

Inn 6

Buxton 2

1
0

Inn 7

Keaschall 1

0
0

Inn 8

2
0

Inn 9

Keaschall 1

MIN
NYM

Play-by-play · 571 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    MIN 5·NYM 3

  2. B9

    ·

    MIN 5·NYM 3

  3. B9

    Taylor struck out swinging.

    ·

    MIN 5·NYM 3

    −1pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    MIN 5·NYM 3

  5. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    MIN 5·NYM 3

  6. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    MIN 5·NYM 3

  7. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    MIN 5·NYM 3

  8. B9

    Cole Sands pitches to Tyrone Taylor

    ·

    MIN 5·NYM 3

  9. B9

    ·

    MIN 5·NYM 3

  10. B9

    Alvarez lined out to right.

    ·

    MIN 5·NYM 3

    −3pp

  11. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    ·

    MIN 5·NYM 3

  12. B9

    Cole Sands pitches to Francisco Alvarez

    ·

    MIN 5·NYM 3

  13. B9

    ·

    MIN 5·NYM 3

  14. B9

    Torrens struck out swinging.

    ·

    MIN 5·NYM 3

    −5pp

  15. B9

    Pitch 7 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    MIN 5·NYM 3

  16. B9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    MIN 5·NYM 3

  17. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    MIN 5·NYM 3

  18. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    MIN 5·NYM 3

  19. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    MIN 5·NYM 3

  20. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    MIN 5·NYM 3

  21. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    MIN 5·NYM 3

  22. B9

    Cole Sands pitches to Luis Torrens

    ·

    MIN 5·NYM 3

  23. B9

    Outman as designated hitter.

    MIN 5·NYM 3

  24. B9

    Martin in left field.

    MIN 5·NYM 3

  25. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    MIN 5·NYM 3

  26. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    MIN 5·NYM 3

  27. T9

    · ·

    MIN 5·NYM 3

  28. T9

    Buxton struck out swinging.

    · ·

    MIN 5·NYM 3

    +2pp

  29. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    MIN 5·NYM 3

  30. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    MIN 5·NYM 3

Team stats

MIN

Away

Stat

NYM

Home

5

Runs

3

6

Hits

4

0

Errors

0

10

TB

7

1

HR

1

3

BB

3

15

K

8

14

LOB

8

Betting line

NYM -1.5·O/U 7.5·MIN +135/NYM -163

DraftKings · via ESPN

Player projections

NYM vs MIN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

123

projections · 72 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Nolan McLeanNYM
    6.7± 2.3low
  • Taj BradleyMIN
    6.5± 3.1low
  • Joe RyanMIN
    5.9± 3.1low

Hits

  • Juan SotoNYM
    1.2± 0.8high
  • Orlando ArciaMIN
    1.1± 1.4low
  • Brooks LeeMIN
    1.0± 0.8high

Total bases

  • Juan SotoNYM
    2.7± 2.7high
  • Byron BuxtonMIN
    2.4± 2.7high
  • Brooks LeeMIN
    1.7± 1.6high

RBIs

  • Juan SotoNYM
    0.8± 1.1high
  • Brooks LeeMIN
    0.6± 1.1high
  • Byron BuxtonMIN
    0.6± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Simeon Woods RichardsonMIN
    3.6± 3.0low
  • David PetersonNYM
    2.8± 3.4low
  • Nolan McLeanNYM
    2.8± 2.9low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

52.1%

ensemble · NYM favored

  • Elo Static

    52.6%

    P(NYM win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    56.6%

    P(NYM win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    51.4%

    P(NYM win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

2.22 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

85% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 24, 26sim 96
    33
    7(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 4, 26sim 96
    307
    9(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 22, 26sim 94
    92
    21(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 28, 26sim 94
    200
    21(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 13, 26sim 93
    62
    21(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 30, 26sim 93
    205
    21(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 16 players in cohort
  • Byron BuxtonMIN · CF
    SPRINT29.597
  • Luis Robert Jr.NYM · CF
    SPRINT2993
  • Luke KeaschallMIN · 2B
    SPRINT28.688
  • Marcus SemienNYM · 2B
    SPRINT28.175