MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+8NYM

WSH

13-17

NYM

10-19

Citi Field · Queens, New York

33,622 attended

Line movement

45 snapshots

NYM spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.0

NYM no-vig %

61.6%

open 61.6%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = NYM favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

54.2%

ensemble · NYM favored

Elo Static
53.7%
P(NYM win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
57.2%
P(NYM win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
53.0%
P(NYM win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.83 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

88% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+149

Close price

+149

Open no-vig

38.4%

Close no-vig

38.4%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Player projections

NYM vs WSH.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 91 high confidence

Strikeouts

Nolan McLeanNYM
6.1± 2.7low
Cade CavalliWSH
5.9± 3.5medium
Foster GriffinWSH
5.4± 2.7low

Hits

Bo BichetteNYM
1.3± 1.2high
James WoodWSH
1.3± 1.1high
Daylen LileWSH
1.2± 1.3high

Total bases

James WoodWSH
2.5± 2.5high
Bo BichetteNYM
2.4± 2.5high
Luis Garcia Jr.WSH
2.1± 2.6high

RBIs

Luis Garcia Jr.WSH
1.0± 1.8high
Bo BichetteNYM
0.9± 2.0high
CJ AbramsWSH
0.7± 0.8high

Earned runs

Nolan McLeanNYM
2.7± 2.9low
David PetersonNYM
2.6± 3.7low
Zack LittellWSH
2.6± 2.6low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

WSH

league avg

NYM

.745

OPS

◀

.717

.665

.323

OBP

◀

.319

.294

5.44

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.06

4.66

Team ERA

4.18

▶

3.85

1.38

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.27

7.7

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.1

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

NYM wins

WSH 0 · NYM 8 (by 8)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked NYM +4pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
WSH	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
NYM	1	0	0	7	0	0	0	0	8

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
J. WoodRF	.237	3	0	0	0	0	1	2
L. Garcia Jr.1B	.242	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
B. House3B	.226	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. AbramsSS	.267	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
D. LileLF	.269	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
J. YoungCF	.237	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
J. Vivas3B	.288	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
D. MillasC	.160	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
N. Nunez2B	.195	2	0	0	0	0	1	1
Team		30	0	3	0	0	2	11

Player

AVG

RBI

.237

.242

.226

.267

.269

.237

.288

.160

.195

Team

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
Z. LittellSP	3.2	5	8	4	3	1	84
B. LordRP	2.1	1	0	0	0	1	27
A. GranilloRP	2.0	0	0	0	2	1	32
Team	8.0	6	8	4	5	3	143

Player

Z. LittellSP

3.2

B. LordRP

2.1

A. GranilloRP

2.0

Team

8.0

143

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
B. Bichette3B	.237	2	1	1	2	1	1	0
J. SotoLF	.300	4	1	1	2	1	0	0
F. AlvarezC	.228	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. MelendezDH	.280	3	1	1	0	0	0	0
M. Vientos1B	.236	2	1	0	0	0	2	2
B. Baty3B	.212	3	1	0	0	0	1	0
M. Semien2B	.214	3	1	0	1	0	1	0
C. BengeRF	.195	4	1	2	2	0	0	0
R. MauricioSS	.278	4	1	1	0	0	0	1
T. TaylorCF	.209	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		30	8	6	7	2	5	3

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
C. HolmesSP	6.0	3	0	0	1	6	94
T. MyersRP	2.0	0	0	0	1	2	25
C. KimbrelRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	14
Team	9.0	3	0	0	2	11	133

Team

WSH

NYM

—

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

NYM vs WSH.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

Closing-line value.

NYM vs WSH.

3 sub-models, blended.