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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+3KC
LAA

LAA

12-15

3
6
KC

KC

9-17

Kauffman Stadium · Kansas City, Missouri
19,079 attended

Line movement

32 snapshots

KC spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.5

KC no-vig %

50.4%

open 50.4%

+2.0+1.0KC SPREADO/U 9.0O/U 8.0TOTAL54.4%46.4%KC NO-VIG %MODEL 52.4%May 3, 7 PMMay 29, 9 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = KC favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

KC wins

LAA 3 · KC 6 (by 3)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked KC +4pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
LAA0000003003
KC000500016

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 21, 26sim 96
    95
    21(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 12, 26sim 95
    62
    21(H)10
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 28, 26sim 93
    183
    1(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 14, 26sim 93
    64
    21(H)9
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 6, 26sim 93
    17
    28(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 20, 26sim 93
    214
    20(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-112

Close price

-112

Open no-vig

50.4%

Close no-vig

50.4%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

MLB·Fri, Apr 24·Final/SeriesKC wins series 3-0/VegasKC -112

Recap · MLB

Kansas City Royals held off Los Angeles Angels, 6–3.

KC +1.5 cashed (LAA lost outright). Total cleared the 8.5 OVER by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

LAA · top performer

LAA
Bryce Teodosio

Bryce Teodosio

LF

1.333OPS

3-2

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

KC · top performer

KC
Isaac Collins

Isaac Collins

LF

1.417OPS

3-2

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

MLB · Los Angeles Angels at Kansas City Royals · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
LAA12-15
3
6
KC9-17
LAA12-15·KC9-17
LAA

LAA

12-15

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
Z. NetoZ. Neto★SS
1-55011001
SPRINT27.148
M. TroutM. Trout★CF
0-22001032
J. AdellJ. Adell★RF
1-55011001
SPRINT27.867
J. SolerJ. Soler★DH
1-33010011
O. PerazaO. Peraza★2B
0-22000011
N. SchanuelN. Schanuel★1B
0-44000000
V. GrissomV. Grissom★2B
2-44120000
SPRINT26.632
L. O'HoppeL. O'Hoppe★C
1-33110010
SPRINT27.251
B. TeodosioB. Teodosio★LF
2-33120001
SPRINT29.395
Y. MoncadaY. Moncada3B
0-11000001
A. FrazierA. Frazier2B
0-11000001
Team8-3333383069
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
Y. KikuchiY. Kikuchi★SP
5.0555250
S. AndersonS. AndersonRP
1.0100120
R. ZeferjahnR. ZeferjahnRP
1.0000020
D. PomeranzD. PomeranzRP
1.0211110
Team8.08664100
KC

KC

9-17

6
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
N. LoftinN. Loftin★2B
0-44000001
B. Witt Jr.B. Witt Jr.★SS
1-44110000
SPRINT30.399+
S. PerezS. Perez★C
0-44000003
L. ThomasL. Thomas★CF
0-22000021
S. MarteS. Marte★RF
1-33111001
SPRINT25.411
C. JensenC. Jensen★C
2-44120000
SPRINT27.457
I. CollinsI. Collins★LF
2-33122011
SPRINT27.867
E. DiazE. Diaz★C
1-33112011
M. MasseyM. Massey★2B
1-44011002
Team8-31316860410
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
N. CameronN. Cameron★SP
6.1833360
N. MearsN. MearsRP
0.1000200
D. Lynch IVD. Lynch IVRP
0.1000010
M. StrahmM. StrahmRP
1.0000000
L. ErcegL. ErcegRP
1.0000120
Team9.0833690

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

LAA

  • Y. Kikuchi
    90 pitches·19% CSW
    • FF
      54%·95.9 mph·10% whiff
    • FS
      24%·86.9 mph·31% whiff
    • SL
      16%·88.9 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      6%·77.9 mph·0% whiff
  • D. Pomeranz
    30 pitches·20% CSW
    • FF
      73%·91.6 mph·18% whiff
    • KC
      27%·83.7 mph·0% whiff
  • S. Anderson
    20 pitches·30% CSW
    • FF
      35%·93.3 mph·20% whiff
    • SL
      20%·89.2 mph·100% whiff
    • ST
      20%·81.6 mph·100% whiff
    • CH
      15%·85.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      10%·93.6 mph·0% whiff
  • R. Zeferjahn
    13 pitches·46% CSW
    • FF
      38%·97.2 mph·33% whiff
    • ST
      38%·83.6 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      15%·88.6 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      8%·95.9 mph·100% whiff

KC

  • N. Cameron
    88 pitches·26% CSW
    • FF
      26%·92.5 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      22%·82.6 mph·38% whiff
    • CU
      20%·82.4 mph·27% whiff
    • SL
      20%·84.3 mph·15% whiff
    • FC
      11%·89.8 mph·0% whiff
  • L. Erceg
    18 pitches·28% CSW
    • FF
      50%·97.1 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      33%·84.2 mph·25% whiff
    • SI
      11%·97.1 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      6%·88.5 mph·0% whiff
  • N. Mears
    14 pitches·21% CSW
    • SL
      71%·85.0 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      14%·95.5 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      14%·94.6 mph·0% whiff
  • M. Strahm
    8 pitches·25% CSW
    • SL
      38%·81.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      25%·91.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      25%·91.9 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      13%·82.1 mph·0% whiff
  • D. Lynch IV
    5 pitches·60% CSW
    • CH
      60%·86.6 mph·— whiff
    • FF
      20%·96.2 mph·100% whiff
    • SL
      20%·86.0 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

8

Hits

8

3

Runs

6

0

Errors

0

Current series

KC wins series 3-0

Apr 24LAALAA3@KCKC6today
Apr 25LAALAA1@KCKC12
Apr 26LAALAA9@KCKC11

Season series

KC leads series 1-0

Apr 24LAALAA3@KCKC6today
Apr 25LAALAA1@KCKC12
Apr 26LAALAA9@KCKC11
Aug 15KCKC@LAALAAupcoming
Aug 16KCKC@LAALAAupcoming
Aug 16KCKC@LAALAAupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

LAA -1.5

Total

8.5

Standard · 0.0 vs avg

Moneyline

LAALAA-10852%
KCKC-11253%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet LAA -1.5↗SpreadBet LAA -1.5↗

Line movement · 32 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

8.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowLAA ↔ KC

Biggest swing: 12pp · Bottom 4th Inning

LAALAA
B. Teodosio

B. Teodosio

LF

Batter of the game

2-for-3 · 1 R · 1.333 OPS

Y. Kikuchi

Y. Kikuchi

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 5 K · 5 ER · 5 H · 2 BB

KCKC
I. Collins

I. Collins

LF

Batter of the game

2-for-3 · 1 R · 1.417 OPS

N. Cameron

N. Cameron

SP

Starting pitcher

6.1 IP · 6 K · 3 ER · 8 H · 3 BB

How it ended

KC beat LAA 6-3.

Win probability

KC vs LAA

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
KCBottom 4th Inning · 0-4
+12pp→ 92% WP

Díaz doubled to left, Collins scored and Jensen scored.

LAATop 7th Inning · 2-5
+9pp→ 23% WP

Trout · walked, O'Hoppe scored, Neto to second, Teodosio to third.

KCTop 7th Inning · 3-5
+11pp→ 90% WP

Moncada · struck out swinging.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
LAA0000003003
KC00050001—6

Period scoring

LAA won 1 · KC won 2

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
5

Inn 4

Marte 1

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

3
0

Inn 7

Neto 1

0
1

Inn 8

Collins 1

0

Inn 9

LAA
KC

Play-by-play · 561 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    LAA 3·KC 6

  2. T9

    Adell grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Trout out at second.

    · ·

    LAA 3·KC 6

    +1pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    LAA 3·KC 6

  4. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    LAA 3·KC 6

  5. T9

    Lucas Erceg pitches to Jo Adell

    · ·

    LAA 3·KC 6

  6. T9

    ·

    LAA 3·KC 6

  7. T9

    Trout walked.

    ·

    LAA 3·KC 6

    −0.9pp

  8. T9

    Pitch 6 : Ball 4

    ·

    LAA 3·KC 6

  9. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    ·

    LAA 3·KC 6

  10. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    LAA 3·KC 6

  11. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    LAA 3·KC 6

  12. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    LAA 3·KC 6

  13. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    LAA 3·KC 6

  14. T9

    Lucas Erceg pitches to Mike Trout

    ·

    LAA 3·KC 6

  15. T9

    ·

    LAA 3·KC 6

  16. T9

    Neto struck out looking.

    ·

    LAA 3·KC 6

    +1pp

  17. T9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Looking

    ·

    LAA 3·KC 6

  18. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    ·

    LAA 3·KC 6

  19. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    LAA 3·KC 6

  20. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    LAA 3·KC 6

  21. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    LAA 3·KC 6

  22. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    LAA 3·KC 6

  23. T9

    Lucas Erceg pitches to Zach Neto

    ·

    LAA 3·KC 6

  24. T9

    ·

    LAA 3·KC 6

  25. T9

    Frazier struck out swinging.

    ·

    LAA 3·KC 6

    +2pp

  26. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    LAA 3·KC 6

  27. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    LAA 3·KC 6

  28. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    LAA 3·KC 6

  29. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    LAA 3·KC 6

  30. T9

    Lucas Erceg pitches to Adam Frazier

    ·

    LAA 3·KC 6

Team stats

LAA

Away

Stat

KC

Home

3

Runs

6

8

Hits

8

0

Errors

0

10

TB

11

0

HR

0

6

BB

4

9

K

10

16

LOB

12

Betting line

LAA -1.5·O/U 8.5·LAA -108/KC -112

DraftKings · via ESPN

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort
  • Bobby Witt Jr.KC · SS
    SPRINT30.399+
  • Mike TroutLAA · CF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Lane ThomasKC · CF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Oswald PerazaLAA · 2B
    SPRINT28.278
  • Nick LoftinKC · 2B
    SPRINT2872

Player projections

KC vs LAA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

127

projections · 76 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Reid DetmersLAA
    6.7± 4.4low
  • Jose SorianoLAA
    6.6± 2.9low
  • Michael WachaKC
    5.4± 2.1low

Hits

  • Maikel GarciaKC
    1.1± 0.8high
  • Zach NetoLAA
    1.1± 1.1high
  • Bobby Witt Jr.KC
    0.9± 0.6high

Total bases

  • Zach NetoLAA
    2.1± 2.5high
  • Bobby Witt Jr.KC
    1.7± 1.5high
  • Mike TroutLAA
    1.7± 1.8high

RBIs

  • Vaughn GrissomLAA
    1.0± 1.9high
  • Mike TroutLAA
    0.6± 0.9high
  • Wade MecklerLAA
    0.6± 1.5low

Earned runs

  • Grayson RodriguezLAA
    4.0± 4.0low
  • Jack KochanowiczLAA
    3.0± 2.9low
  • Reid DetmersLAA
    2.9± 3.1low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

52.8%

ensemble · KC favored

  • Elo Static

    53.7%

    P(KC win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    55.2%

    P(KC win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    53.2%

    P(KC win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.85 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

94% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.