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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1WSH
WSH

WSH

15-17

5
4
NYM

NYM

10-21

Citi Field · Queens, New York
34,621 attended

Line movement

36 snapshots

NYM spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.0

NYM no-vig %

62.2%

open 62.2%

-1.0-2.0NYM SPREADO/U 8.5O/U 7.5TOTAL66.2%58.2%NYM NO-VIG %May 3, 7 PMMay 24, 6 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = NYM favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

WSH wins

WSH 5 · NYM 4 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked NYM +2pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
WSH0210000205
NYM0030010004

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+153

Close price

+153

Open no-vig

37.8%

Close no-vig

37.8%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

MLB·Thu, Apr 30·Final/SeriesWSH wins series 2-1/VegasNYM -186

Recap · MLB

Washington Nationals went into New York Mets and beat them, 5–4. It came down to the final possession.

WSH +1.5 cashed (NYM lost outright). Total cleared the 8.0 OVER by 1.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

WSH · top performer

WSH
CJ Abrams

CJ Abrams

SS

2.417OPS

3-2

AB-H

1

R

3

RBI

NYM · top performer

NYM
MJ Melendez

MJ Melendez

DH

3.500OPS

2-2

AB-H

1

R

3

RBI

MLB · Washington Nationals at New York Mets · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
WSH15-17
5
4
NYM10-21
WSH15-17·NYM10-21
WSH

WSH

15-17

5
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. WoodJ. Wood★RF
0-33000012
L. Garcia Jr.L. Garcia Jr.★1B
2-44120001
SPRINT26.735
D. LileD. Lile★LF
0-44100000
C. AbramsC. Abrams★SS
2-33123111
SPRINT28.483
J. TenaJ. Tena★DH
0-33000012
J. VivasJ. Vivas★3B
1-44110000
SPRINT26.838
N. NunezN. Nunez★2B
1-44110000
SPRINT29.899
D. MillasD. Millas★C
0-22000002
J. YoungJ. Young★CF
1-44011001
SPRINT29.496
C. MeadC. Mead1B
0-11000000
K. RuizK. RuizC
0-11000000
Team7-3333574139
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
M. MikolasM. Mikolas★SP
4.0333131
M. ParkerM. ParkerRP
3.0211100
R. LoveladyR. LoveladyRP
0.2100000
G. VarlandG. VarlandRP
1.1100010
Team9.0744241
NYM

NYM

10-21

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
B. BichetteB. Bichette★3B
0-33100010
SPRINT25.716
J. SotoJ. Soto★LF
2-33220010
SPRINT25.513
M. MelendezM. Melendez★DH
2-22123100
SPRINT26.941
M. VientosM. Vientos★1B
1-44011000
SPRINT25.513
B. BatyB. Baty★3B
0-22000000
M. SemienM. Semien★2B
0-44000000
C. BengeC. Benge★RF
1-44010002
SPRINT28.586
L. TorrensL. Torrens★C
0-22000001
R. MauricioR. Mauricio★SS
0-44000001
A. SlaterA. SlaterRF
0-11000000
T. TaylorT. TaylorCF
0-22000000
F. AlvarezF. AlvarezC
1-11010000
Team7-3232474124
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
F. PeraltaF. Peralta★SP
6.0431360
B. RaleyB. RaleyRP
1.0000020
L. WeaverL. WeaverRP
1.0222011
D. WilliamsD. WilliamsRP
1.0100000
Team9.0753391

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

WSH

  • M. Mikolas
    79 pitches·19% CSW
    • SL
      25%·87.4 mph·20% whiff
    • FF
      24%·93.0 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      20%·77.0 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      20%·92.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      10%·86.1 mph·0% whiff
  • M. Parker
    34 pitches·15% CSW
    • SL
      59%·83.8 mph·11% whiff
    • FF
      29%·93.1 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      12%·79.9 mph·33% whiff
  • G. Varland
    22 pitches·27% CSW
    • SL
      73%·87.5 mph·40% whiff
    • FF
      27%·94.5 mph·0% whiff
  • R. Lovelady
    12 pitches·25% CSW
    • FF
      42%·91.8 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      42%·81.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      17%·92.1 mph·— whiff

NYM

  • F. Peralta
    90 pitches·30% CSW
    • FF
      53%·94.4 mph·19% whiff
    • CH
      23%·87.4 mph·20% whiff
    • CU
      23%·80.0 mph·43% whiff
  • D. Williams
    14 pitches·29% CSW
    • CH
      50%·84.2 mph·25% whiff
    • FF
      50%·93.8 mph·33% whiff
  • L. Weaver
    13 pitches·23% CSW
    • FF
      62%·94.5 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      38%·87.1 mph·40% whiff
  • B. Raley
    12 pitches·50% CSW
    • ST
      67%·80.6 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      25%·90.6 mph·— whiff
    • CH
      8%·84.7 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

7

Hits

7

5

Runs

4

0

Errors

1

Current series

WSH wins series 2-1

Apr 28WSHWSH0@NYMNYM8
Apr 29WSHWSH14@NYMNYM2
Apr 30WSHWSH5@NYMNYM4today

Season series

WSH leads series 2-1

Apr 28WSHWSH0@NYMNYM8
Apr 29WSHWSH14@NYMNYM2
Apr 30WSHWSH5@NYMNYM4today
May 18NYMNYM16@WSHWSH7
May 19NYMNYM6@WSHWSH9
May 20NYMNYM4@WSHWSH8
May 21NYMNYM2@WSHWSH1
Aug 14WSHWSH@NYMNYMupcoming
Aug 15WSHWSH@NYMNYMupcoming
Aug 16WSHWSH@NYMNYMupcoming
Sep 25NYMNYM@WSHWSHupcoming
Sep 26NYMNYM@WSHWSHupcoming
Sep 27NYMNYM@WSHWSHupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

NYM -1.5

Total

8.0

Defensive · -0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

WSHWSH+15340%
NYMNYM-18665%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet NYM -1.5↗SpreadBet NYM -1.5↗

Line movement · 36 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

8.0

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowWSH ↔ NYM

Biggest swing: 44pp · Top 8th Inning

WSHWSH
C. Abrams

C. Abrams

SS

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-3 · 1 HR · 2.417 OPS

M. Mikolas

M. Mikolas

SP

Starting pitcher

4.0 IP · 3 K · 3 ER · 3 H · 1 BB

NYMNYM
M. Melendez

M. Melendez

DH

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-2 · 1 HR · 3.500 OPS

F. Peralta

F. Peralta

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 6 K · 1 ER · 4 H · 3 BB

How it ended

WSH beat NYM 5-4. Abrams's play in the top 8th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (44pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

NYM vs WSH

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
NYMBottom 3rd Inning · 3-3
+32pp→ 64% WP

Melendez · homered to right (359 feet), Bichette scored and Soto scored.

WSHTop 8th Inning · 5-4
+44pp→ 68% WP

Abrams · homered to right center (403 feet), Lile scored.

NYMBottom 8th Inning · 5-4
+19pp→ 54% WP

Soto · doubled to right.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
WSH0210000205
NYM0030010004

Period scoring

WSH won 2 · NYM won 2

0
0

Inn 1

2
0

Inn 2

Vivas 1

1
3

Inn 3

Abrams 1

Melendez 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
1

Inn 6

Vientos 1

0
0

Inn 7

2
0

Inn 8

Abrams 2

0
0

Inn 9

WSH
NYM

Play-by-play · 547 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    WSH 5·NYM 4

  2. B9

    · ·

    WSH 5·NYM 4

  3. B9

    Mauricio struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    WSH 5·NYM 4

    −13pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 8 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    WSH 5·NYM 4

  5. B9

    Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    WSH 5·NYM 4

  6. B9

    Pitch 6 : Ball 3

    · ·

    WSH 5·NYM 4

  7. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    WSH 5·NYM 4

  8. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    · ·

    WSH 5·NYM 4

  9. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    WSH 5·NYM 4

  10. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    WSH 5·NYM 4

  11. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    WSH 5·NYM 4

  12. B9

    Gus Varland pitches to Ronny Mauricio

    · ·

    WSH 5·NYM 4

  13. B9

    ·

    WSH 5·NYM 4

  14. B9

    Alvarez doubled to left.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    WSH 5·NYM 4

    +9pp

  15. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    WSH 5·NYM 4

  16. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    WSH 5·NYM 4

  17. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    WSH 5·NYM 4

  18. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    WSH 5·NYM 4

  19. B9

    Gus Varland pitches to Francisco Alvarez

    ·

    WSH 5·NYM 4

  20. B9

    Alvarez hit for Torrens

    ·

    WSH 5·NYM 4

  21. B9

    ·

    WSH 5·NYM 4

  22. B9

    Benge grounded out to first.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    WSH 5·NYM 4

    −7pp

  23. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    WSH 5·NYM 4

  24. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    WSH 5·NYM 4

  25. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    WSH 5·NYM 4

  26. B9

    Gus Varland pitches to Carson Benge

    ·

    WSH 5·NYM 4

  27. B9

    ·

    WSH 5·NYM 4

  28. B9

    Semien grounded out to third.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    WSH 5·NYM 4

    −8pp

  29. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    WSH 5·NYM 4

  30. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    WSH 5·NYM 4

Team stats

WSH

Away

Stat

NYM

Home

5

Runs

4

7

Hits

7

0

Errors

1

11

TB

13

1

HR

1

3

BB

2

9

K

4

14

LOB

9

Betting line

NYM -1.5·O/U 8·WSH +153/NYM -186

DraftKings · via ESPN

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort
  • Nasim NunezWSH · 2B
    SPRINT29.899
  • Daylen LileWSH · LF
    SPRINT29.395
  • Tyrone TaylorNYM · CF
    SPRINT28.891
  • CJ AbramsWSH · SS
    SPRINT28.483
  • Marcus SemienNYM · 2B
    SPRINT28.175

Player projections

NYM vs WSH.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

123

projections · 71 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Nolan McLeanNYM
    6.7± 2.3low
  • Cade CavalliWSH
    5.9± 4.3low
  • Freddy PeraltaNYM
    5.5± 3.2low

Hits

  • James WoodWSH
    1.3± 1.4high
  • Keibert RuizWSH
    1.3± 0.8high
  • Juan SotoNYM
    1.2± 0.8high

Total bases

  • Juan SotoNYM
    2.7± 2.7high
  • Keibert RuizWSH
    2.4± 2.0high
  • James WoodWSH
    2.3± 2.8high

RBIs

  • Keibert RuizWSH
    1.0± 1.6high
  • Juan SotoNYM
    0.8± 1.1high
  • CJ AbramsWSH
    0.8± 1.2high

Earned runs

  • David PetersonNYM
    2.8± 3.4low
  • Nolan McLeanNYM
    2.8± 2.9low
  • Zack LittellWSH
    2.8± 3.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · NYM favored

  • Elo Static

    51.9%

    P(NYM win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    54.5%

    P(NYM win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    50.1%

    P(NYM win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.81 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

88% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 25, 26sim 99
    206
    4(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 24, 26sim 96
    204
    4(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 28, 26sim 95
    200
    21(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 5, 26sim 95
    43
    3(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 1, 26sim 93
    214
    3(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 3, 26sim 93
    215
    3(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs