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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1SD
SD

SD

15-7

2
1
LAA

LAA

11-12

Angel Stadium · Anaheim, California
44,560 attended

Line movement

14 snapshots

LAA spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 9.0

open O/U 9.0

LAA no-vig %

42.8%

open 42.8%

+2.0+1.0LAA SPREADO/U 9.5O/U 8.5TOTAL46.8%38.8%LAA NO-VIG %May 3, 7 PMMay 27, 2 PM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = LAA favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

SD wins

SD 2 · LAA 1 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked SD +6pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
SD0001001002
LAA0000001001

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →
MLB·Sun, Apr 19·Final/SeriesSD wins series 2-1/VegasSD -149

Recap · MLB

San Diego Padres went into Los Angeles Angels and beat them, 2–1. It came down to the final possession.

LAA +1.5 cashed (SD won by 1). Total stayed UNDER 9.0 by 6.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

SD · top performer

SD
Bryce Johnson

Bryce Johnson

RF

1.333OPS

3-2

AB-H

0

R

1

RBI

LAA · top performer

LAA
Oswald Peraza

Oswald Peraza

2B

1.000OPS

2-1

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

MLB · San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Angels · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
SD15-7
2
1
LAA11-12
SD15-7·LAA11-12
SD

SD

15-7

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
R. LaureanoR. Laureano★LF
0-44000003
SPRINT2872
F. Tatis Jr.F. Tatis Jr.★RF
1-44110001
SPRINT28.483
J. MerrillJ. Merrill★CF
0-44000002
M. MachadoM. Machado★3B
0-44000001
X. BogaertsX. Bogaerts★SS
1-22111021
SPRINT27.148
G. SheetsG. Sheets★1B
1-33010010
SPRINT26.735
M. AndujarM. Andujar★DH
0-44000000
L. CampusanoL. Campusano★C
0-22000002
B. JohnsonB. Johnson★RF
2-33021000
SPRINT27.354
J. CronenworthJ. Cronenworth2B
0-11000001
Team5-31312520311
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
M. KingM. King★SP
5.0100460
R. MarinaccioR. MarinaccioRP
1.0000210
K. HartK. HartRP
0.1111000
B. RodriguezB. RodriguezRP
1.2000120
M. MillerM. MillerRP
1.0000020
Team9.02117110
LAA

LAA

11-12

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
Z. NetoZ. Neto★SS
0-22001021
SPRINT27.148
M. TroutM. Trout★CF
0-11000030
SPRINT28.688
N. SchanuelN. Schanuel★1B
0-33000010
SPRINT25.920
J. SolerJ. Soler★DH
1-44010003
SPRINT2622
Y. MoncadaY. Moncada★3B
0-33000011
J. AdellJ. Adell★RF
0-44000001
J. LoweJ. Lowe★LF
0-22000000
T. d'ArnaudT. d'Arnaud★C
0-11000001
A. FrazierA. Frazier★2B
0-22000002
O. PerazaO. Peraza2B
1-22110000
SPRINT28.278
V. GrissomV. Grissom2B
0-11000001
L. O'HoppeL. O'HoppeC
0-11000001
Team2-26261210711
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
W. UrenaW. Urena★SP
6.0422280
S. BachmanS. BachmanRP
2.0100030
B. SuterB. SuterRP
1.0000100
Team9.05223110

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

SD

  • M. King
    105 pitches·26% CSW
    • ST
      28%·82.1 mph·29% whiff
    • CH
      26%·86.7 mph·21% whiff
    • SI
      22%·93.3 mph·27% whiff
    • FF
      18%·94.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      7%·85.4 mph·0% whiff
  • R. Marinaccio
    26 pitches·27% CSW
    • FC
      38%·87.3 mph·50% whiff
    • CH
      27%·81.9 mph·100% whiff
    • FF
      23%·95.2 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      12%·83.1 mph·50% whiff
  • B. Rodriguez
    24 pitches·42% CSW
    • CH
      58%·90.3 mph·43% whiff
    • FC
      25%·88.6 mph·100% whiff
    • FF
      8%·98.0 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      8%·98.6 mph·0% whiff
  • M. Miller
    13 pitches·54% CSW
    • SL
      62%·87.3 mph·67% whiff
    • FF
      38%·101.8 mph·100% whiff
  • K. Hart
    10 pitches·10% CSW
    • FS
      30%·85.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      30%·89.2 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      20%·92.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      20%·93.4 mph·0% whiff

LAA

  • W. Urena
    92 pitches·24% CSW
    • CH
      38%·91.3 mph·26% whiff
    • FF
      26%·98.3 mph·40% whiff
    • SI
      25%·98.4 mph·8% whiff
    • ST
      10%·84.7 mph·100% whiff
    • FA
      1%·84.7 mph·— whiff
  • S. Bachman
    27 pitches·44% CSW
    • SL
      56%·89.3 mph·71% whiff
    • SI
      33%·99.2 mph·25% whiff
    • CH
      11%·91.8 mph·0% whiff
  • B. Suter
    12 pitches·42% CSW
    • CH
      50%·73.7 mph·67% whiff
    • SI
      42%·89.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      8%·87.6 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

5

Hits

2

2

Runs

1

0

Errors

0

Current series

SD wins series 2-1

Apr 18SDSD0@LAALAA8
Apr 19SDSD4@LAALAA1
Apr 19SDSD2@LAALAA1today

Season series

SD wins series 2-1

Apr 18SDSD0@LAALAA8
Apr 19SDSD4@LAALAA1
Apr 19SDSD2@LAALAA1today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

SD -1.5

Total

9.0

High-scoring · +0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

SDSD-14960%
LAALAA+12345%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet SD -1.5↗SpreadBet SD -1.5↗

Line movement · 14 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

9.0

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowSD ↔ LAA

Biggest swing: 12pp · Top 7th Inning

SDSD
B. Johnson

B. Johnson

RF

Batter of the game

2-for-3 · 1.333 OPS

M. King

M. King

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 6 K · 0 ER · 1 H · 4 BB

LAALAA
O. Peraza

O. Peraza

2B

Batter of the game

1-for-2 · 1 R · 1.000 OPS

W. Urena

W. Urena

SP

Starting pitcher

6.0 IP · 8 K · 2 ER · 4 H · 2 BB

How it ended

SD beat LAA 2-1.

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

LAA vs SD

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
SDBottom 1st Inning · 0-0
+12pp→ 60% WP

Soler · struck out swinging.

SDTop 4th Inning · 1-0
+11pp→ 66% WP

Bogaerts · singled to center, Tatis Jr. scored.

SDTop 7th Inning · 2-0
+12pp→ 84% WP

Johnson · singled to left, Bogaerts scored, Sheets to third.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
SD0001001002
LAA0000001001

Period scoring

SD won 1 · LAA won 0

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

1
0

Inn 4

Bogaerts 1

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

1
1

Inn 7

Johnson 1

Neto 1

0
0

Inn 8

0
0

Inn 9

SD
LAA

Play-by-play · 586 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    SD 2·LAA 1

  2. B9

    ·

    SD 2·LAA 1

  3. B9

    O'Hoppe struck out swinging.

    ·

    SD 2·LAA 1

    −3pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    SD 2·LAA 1

  5. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    SD 2·LAA 1

  6. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    SD 2·LAA 1

  7. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    SD 2·LAA 1

  8. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    SD 2·LAA 1

  9. B9

    Mason Miller pitches to Logan O'Hoppe

    ·

    SD 2·LAA 1

  10. B9

    ·

    SD 2·LAA 1

  11. B9

    Grissom struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    SD 2·LAA 1

    −6pp

  12. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    SD 2·LAA 1

  13. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    SD 2·LAA 1

  14. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    SD 2·LAA 1

  15. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    SD 2·LAA 1

  16. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    SD 2·LAA 1

  17. B9

    Mason Miller pitches to Vaughn Grissom

    ·

    SD 2·LAA 1

  18. B9

    Grissom hit for Teodosio

    ·

    SD 2·LAA 1

  19. B9

    ·

    SD 2·LAA 1

  20. B9

    Peraza grounded out to third.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    SD 2·LAA 1

    −8pp

  21. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    SD 2·LAA 1

  22. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    SD 2·LAA 1

  23. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    SD 2·LAA 1

  24. B9

    Mason Miller pitches to Oswald Peraza

    ·

    SD 2·LAA 1

  25. B9

    Miller relieved Rodriguez

    ·

    SD 2·LAA 1

  26. B9

    France at first base.

    SD 2·LAA 1

  27. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    SD 2·LAA 1

  28. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    SD 2·LAA 1

  29. T9

    ·

    SD 2·LAA 1

  30. T9

    Andujar grounded out to first.

    ·

    SD 2·LAA 1

    +0.8pp

Team stats

SD

Away

Stat

LAA

Home

2

Runs

1

5

Hits

2

0

Errors

0

6

TB

3

0

HR

0

3

BB

7

11

K

11

12

LOB

16

Betting line

SD -1.5·O/U 9·SD -149/LAA +123

DraftKings · via ESPN

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort
  • Jackson MerrillSD · CF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Mike TroutLAA · CF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Fernando Tatis Jr.SD · RF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Oswald PerazaLAA · 2B
    SPRINT28.278
  • Ramon LaureanoSD · LF
    SPRINT2872

Player projections

LAA vs SD.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

129

projections · 74 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Reid DetmersLAA
    6.7± 4.4low
  • Jose SorianoLAA
    6.6± 2.9low
  • Michael KingSD
    5.7± 2.2low

Hits

  • Fernando Tatis Jr.SD
    1.4± 1.0high
  • Zach NetoLAA
    1.1± 1.1high
  • Ty FranceSD
    1.0± 1.1high

Total bases

  • Zach NetoLAA
    2.1± 2.5high
  • Mike TroutLAA
    1.7± 1.8high
  • Ty FranceSD
    1.7± 2.0high

RBIs

  • Vaughn GrissomLAA
    1.0± 1.9high
  • Manny MachadoSD
    0.7± 0.9high
  • Mike TroutLAA
    0.6± 0.9high

Earned runs

  • Grayson RodriguezLAA
    4.0± 4.0low
  • Griffin CanningSD
    3.8± 2.9low
  • Jack KochanowiczLAA
    3.0± 2.9low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.7%

ensemble · SD favored

  • Elo Static

    44.2%

    P(LAA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    42.0%

    P(LAA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    44.3%

    P(LAA win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.06 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

93% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 13, 26sim 96
    221
    2(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 19, 26sim 96
    254
    3(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 8, 26sim 95
    220
    26(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 12, 26sim 95
    222
    2(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 8, 26sim 95
    220
    26(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 18, 26sim 94
    250
    3(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs