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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+6SF
PHI

PHI

6-5

0
6
SF

SF

4-8

Oracle Park · San Francisco, California
32,403 attended

Line movement

12 snapshots

SF spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 7.5

SF no-vig %

42.8%

open 42.8%

+2.0+1.0SF SPREADO/U 8.0O/U 7.0TOTAL46.8%38.8%SF NO-VIG %May 4, 10 AMMay 28, 2 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = SF favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

SF wins

PHI 0 · SF 6 (by 6)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked PHI +6pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
PHI0000000000
SF100021026

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Player projections

SF vs PHI.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 72 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Cristopher SanchezPHI
    7.8± 3.4low
  • Jesus LuzardoPHI
    6.5± 3.6low
  • Landen RouppSF
    6.1± 2.1low

Hits

  • Jung Hoo LeeSF
    1.3± 1.1high
  • Luis ArraezSF
    1.2± 1.0high
  • Kyle SchwarberPHI
    1.1± 1.0high

Total bases

  • Kyle SchwarberPHI
    2.5± 2.8high
  • Casey SchmittSF
    2.4± 2.2high
  • Willy AdamesSF
    2.3± 2.3high

RBIs

  • Casey SchmittSF
    0.9± 1.3high
  • Kyle SchwarberPHI
    0.8± 1.5high
  • Rafael DeversSF
    0.8± 1.6high

Earned runs

  • Adrian HouserSF
    3.1± 2.9low
  • Logan WebbSF
    3.1± 2.6low
  • Andrew PainterPHI
    3.0± 3.0low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.7%

ensemble · PHI favored

  • Elo Static

    43.5%

    P(SF win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    39.8%

    P(SF win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    45.0%

    P(SF win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

2.18 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

85% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 18, 26sim 96
    250
    3(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 8, 26sim 96
    220
    26(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 19, 26sim 95
    254
    3(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 19, 26sim 95
    252
    3(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 7, 26sim 94
    226
    26(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 3, 26sim 94
    82
    20(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Tue, Apr 7·Final/SeriesSF wins series 2-1/VegasPHI -149

Recap · MLB

San Francisco Giants held off Philadelphia Phillies, 6–0. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

SF +1.5 cashed (PHI lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 7.5 by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

PHI · top performer

PHI
Bryce Harper

Bryce Harper

1B

1.250OPS

2-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

SF · top performer

SF
Matt Chapman

Matt Chapman

3B

1.500OPS

4-3

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · Philadelphia Phillies at San Francisco Giants · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
PHI6-5
0
6
SF4-8
PHI6-5·SF4-8
PHI

PHI

6-5

0
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
T. TurnerT. Turner★SS
1-44010000
SPRINT29.798
K. SchwarberK. Schwarber★DH
1-44010001
SPRINT25.818
B. HarperB. Harper★1B
1-22010020
SPRINT2744
A. GarciaA. Garcia★RF
0-44000002
SPRINT26.735
E. SosaE. Sosa★2B
1-33010010
SPRINT28.278
J.T. RealmutoJ.T. Realmuto★C
0-00000000
O. KempO. Kemp★LF
0-44000002
D. MooreD. Moore★CF
0-33000011
J. CrawfordJ. Crawford★CF
0-33000001
R. MarchanR. MarchanC
0-44000001
Team4-3131040048
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. SanchezC. Sanchez★SP
5.01142060
Z. PopZ. PopRP
1.0000000
T. BanksT. BanksRP
1.0000020
O. KerkeringO. KerkeringRP
1.0222100
Team8.01364180
SF

SF

4-8

6
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
W. AdamesW. Adames★SS
2-44120000
SPRINT27.457
M. ChapmanM. Chapman★3B
3-44131001
SPRINT28.175
L. ArraezL. Arraez★2B
1-44012001
SPRINT26.632
H. RamosH. Ramos★LF
1-44110003
SPRINT27.251
R. DeversR. Devers★1B
1-44110001
C. SchmittC. Schmitt★DH
1-33110012
J. EncarnacionJ. Encarnacion★RF
1-22010000
D. SusacD. Susac★C
3-44132000
J. OlivaJ. Oliva★CF
0-22000000
J. LeeJ. LeeRF
0-11001000
H. BaderH. BaderCF
0-22000000
Team13-34346136018
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
R. RayR. Ray★SP
6.2300370
R. WalkerR. WalkerRP
1.1100110
K. WinnK. WinnRP
1.0000000
Team9.0400480

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

PHI

  • Z. Pop
    5 pitches·40% CSW
    • SL
      60%·86.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      40%·95.9 mph·0% whiff

SF

No arsenal data yet for this team’s pitchers.

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

4

Hits

13

0

Runs

6

1

Errors

0

Current series

SF wins series 2-1

Apr 7PHIPHI6@SFSF4
Apr 8PHIPHI0@SFSF6today
Apr 8PHIPHI0@SFSF5

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Apr 7PHIPHI6@SFSF4
Apr 8PHIPHI0@SFSF6today
Apr 8PHIPHI0@SFSF5
Apr 28SFSF0@PHIPHI7
Apr 29SFSF0@PHIPHI0
Apr 30SFSF2@PHIPHI3
Apr 30SFSF5@PHIPHI6

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

PHI -1.5

Total

7.5

Defensive · -1.0 vs avg

Moneyline

PHIPHI-14960%
SFSF+12345%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet PHI -1.5↗SpreadBet PHI -1.5↗

Line movement · 12 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

7.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowPHI ↔ SF

Biggest swing: 12pp · Bottom 5th Inning

PHIPHI
B. Harper

B. Harper

1B

Batter of the game

1-for-2 · 1.250 OPS

C. Sanchez

C. Sanchez

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 6 K · 2 ER · 11 H

SFSF
M. Chapman

M. Chapman

3B

Batter of the game

3-for-4 · 1 R · 1.500 OPS

R. Ray

R. Ray

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.2 IP · 7 K · 0 ER · 3 H · 3 BB

How it ended

SF beat PHI 6-0.

Win probability

SF vs PHI

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
SFBottom 1st Inning · 0-0
+8pp→ 53% WP

Adames · doubled to right.

PHITop 2nd Inning · 0-1
+9pp→ 52% WP

Sosa · doubled to right.

SFBottom 5th Inning · 0-2
+12pp→ 81% WP

Chapman · doubled to left, Susac scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
PHI0000000000
SF10002102—6

Period scoring

PHI won 0 · SF won 4

0
1

Inn 1

Arraez 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
2

Inn 5

Chapman 1

0
1

Inn 6

Lee 1

0
0

Inn 7

0
2

Inn 8

Susac 2

0

Inn 9

PHI
SF

Play-by-play · 555 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    PHI 0·SF 6

  2. T9

    Moore flied out to right.

    ·

    PHI 0·SF 6

  3. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    PHI 0·SF 6

  4. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    PHI 0·SF 6

  5. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    PHI 0·SF 6

  6. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    PHI 0·SF 6

  7. T9

    Keaton Winn pitches to Dylan Moore

    ·

    PHI 0·SF 6

  8. T9

    ·

    PHI 0·SF 6

  9. T9

    Kemp popped out to first.

    · ·

    PHI 0·SF 6

  10. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    PHI 0·SF 6

  11. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    PHI 0·SF 6

  12. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    PHI 0·SF 6

  13. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    PHI 0·SF 6

  14. T9

    Keaton Winn pitches to Otto Kemp

    ·

    PHI 0·SF 6

  15. T9

    ·

    PHI 0·SF 6

  16. T9

    Marchán flied out to center.

    ·

    PHI 0·SF 6

  17. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    PHI 0·SF 6

  18. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    PHI 0·SF 6

  19. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    PHI 0·SF 6

  20. T9

    Keaton Winn pitches to Rafael Marchan

    ·

    PHI 0·SF 6

  21. T9

    Winn relieved Walker

    ·

    PHI 0·SF 6

  22. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    PHI 0·SF 6

  23. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    PHI 0·SF 6

  24. B8

    · ·

    PHI 0·SF 6

  25. B8

    Bader grounded out to shortstop.

    · ·

    PHI 0·SF 6

  26. B8

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    PHI 0·SF 6

  27. B8

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    PHI 0·SF 6

  28. B8

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    PHI 0·SF 6

  29. B8

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    PHI 0·SF 6

  30. B8

    Orion Kerkering pitches to Harrison Bader

    · ·

    PHI 0·SF 6

Team stats

PHI

Away

Stat

SF

Home

0

Runs

6

4

Hits

13

1

Errors

0

5

TB

19

0

HR

0

4

BB

1

8

K

8

18

LOB

16

Betting line

PHI -1.5·O/U 7.5·PHI -149/SF +123

DraftKings · via ESPN

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort
  • Trea TurnerPHI · SS
    SPRINT29.798
  • J.T. RealmutoPHI · C
    SPRINT28.381
  • Edmundo SosaPHI · 2B
    SPRINT28.278
  • Matt ChapmanSF · 3B
    SPRINT28.175
  • Casey SchmittSF · DH
    SPRINT2872