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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+5SF
PHI

PHI

6-6

0
5
SF

SF

5-8

Oracle Park · San Francisco, California
36,106 attended

Line movement

10 snapshots

SF spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.5

SF no-vig %

44.9%

open 44.9%

+2.0+1.0SF SPREADO/U 9.0O/U 8.0TOTAL48.9%40.9%SF NO-VIG %May 4, 10 AMMay 27, 6 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = SF favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

SF wins

PHI 0 · SF 5 (by 5)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked PHI +5pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
PHI0000000000
SF000003025

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 19, 26sim 98
    254
    3(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 8, 26sim 96
    220
    26(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 15, 26sim 96
    53
    24(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 19, 26sim 95
    252
    3(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 4, 26sim 94
    252
    26(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 7, 26sim 94
    226
    26(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Wed, Apr 8·Final/SeriesSF wins series 2-1/VegasPHI -136

Recap · MLB

San Francisco Giants held off Philadelphia Phillies, 5–0.

SF +1.5 cashed (PHI lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 8.5 by 3.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

PHI · top performer

PHI
Kyle Schwarber

Kyle Schwarber

DH

1.250OPS

2-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

SF · top performer

SF
Luis Arraez

Luis Arraez

2B

2.000OPS

2-2

AB-H

2

R

0

RBI

MLB · Philadelphia Phillies at San Francisco Giants · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
PHI6-6
0
5
SF5-8
PHI6-6·SF5-8
PHI

PHI

6-6

0
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
T. TurnerT. Turner★SS
0-33000011
SPRINT29.798
K. SchwarberK. Schwarber★DH
1-22010021
SPRINT25.818
B. HarperB. Harper★1B
1-33010010
SPRINT2744
A. BohmA. Bohm★3B
0-44000000
B. StottB. Stott★2B
0-44000001
A. GarciaA. Garcia★RF
1-33010011
SPRINT26.735
B. MarshB. Marsh★LF
0-33000002
R. MarchanR. Marchan★C
0-44000001
J. CrawfordJ. Crawford★CF
0-22000001
D. MooreD. MooreCF
0-11000001
O. KempO. KempLF
1-22010001
Team4-31310400510
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
A. NolaA. Nola★SP
6.0533131
J. BowlanJ. BowlanRP
1.0100010
J. AlvaradoJ. AlvaradoRP
0.2221020
Z. PopZ. PopRP
0.1100000
Team8.0954161
SF

SF

5-8

5
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
W. AdamesW. Adames★SS
2-44220000
SPRINT27.457
L. ArraezL. Arraez★2B
2-22220010
SPRINT26.632
M. ChapmanM. Chapman★3B
1-44010003
SPRINT28.175
R. DeversR. Devers★1B
2-44124101
SPRINT25.716
J. LeeJ. Lee★RF
0-44000001
J. EncarnacionJ. Encarnacion★RF
0-33000000
H. BaderH. Bader★CF
0-44000001
P. BaileyP. Bailey★C
1-33010000
C. KossC. Koss★2B
0-33000000
J. OlivaJ. OlivaCF
1-11010000
Team9-3232594116
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
T. MahleT. Mahle★SP
5.2300460
M. GageM. GageRP
0.2100010
C. KilianC. KilianRP
0.2000110
B. TidwellB. TidwellRP
1.0000000
E. MillerE. MillerRP
1.0000020
Team9.04005100

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

PHI

  • A. Nola
    84 pitches·30% CSW
    • KC
      26%·79.0 mph·22% whiff
    • FF
      25%·92.0 mph·25% whiff
    • SI
      23%·90.8 mph·29% whiff
    • CH
      14%·85.3 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      12%·86.4 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Bowlan
    18 pitches·28% CSW
    • FF
      33%·97.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      33%·97.4 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      17%·87.2 mph·33% whiff
    • CH
      11%·91.8 mph·— whiff
    • ST
      6%·82.5 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Alvarado
    17 pitches·24% CSW
    • SI
      71%·98.0 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      29%·91.1 mph·0% whiff
  • Z. Pop
    5 pitches·40% CSW
    • SL
      60%·86.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      40%·95.9 mph·0% whiff

SF

  • T. Mahle
    94 pitches·27% CSW
    • FF
      45%·93.0 mph·19% whiff
    • FS
      23%·85.9 mph·43% whiff
    • FC
      22%·88.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      5%·91.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      4%·82.7 mph·0% whiff
  • E. Miller
    17 pitches·41% CSW
    • SI
      47%·98.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      41%·86.5 mph·75% whiff
    • FF
      12%·98.4 mph·100% whiff
  • M. Gage
    13 pitches·31% CSW
    • SL
      46%·85.4 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      38%·91.7 mph·33% whiff
    • CH
      15%·83.7 mph·— whiff
  • C. Kilian
    13 pitches·31% CSW
    • FF
      54%·97.1 mph·0% whiff
    • KC
      31%·80.9 mph·100% whiff
    • SL
      15%·88.0 mph·50% whiff
  • B. Tidwell
    13 pitches·15% CSW
    • FF
      62%·95.9 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      23%·83.3 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      8%·81.6 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      8%·88.2 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

4

Hits

9

0

Runs

5

1

Errors

0

Current series

SF wins series 2-1

Apr 7PHIPHI6@SFSF4
Apr 8PHIPHI0@SFSF6
Apr 8PHIPHI0@SFSF5today

Season series

SF leads series 2-1

Apr 7PHIPHI6@SFSF4
Apr 8PHIPHI0@SFSF6
Apr 8PHIPHI0@SFSF5today
Apr 28SFSF0@PHIPHI7
Apr 29SFSF0@PHIPHI0
Apr 30SFSF2@PHIPHI3
Apr 30SFSF5@PHIPHI6

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

PHI -1.5

Total

8.5

Standard · 0.0 vs avg

Moneyline

PHIPHI-13658%
SFSF+11347%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet PHI -1.5↗SpreadBet PHI -1.5↗

Line movement · 10 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

8.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowPHI ↔ SF

Biggest swing: 31pp · Bottom 6th Inning

PHIPHI
K. Schwarber

K. Schwarber

DH

Batter of the game

1-for-2 · 1.250 OPS

A. Nola

A. Nola

SP

Starting pitcher

6.0 IP · 3 K · 3 ER · 5 H · 1 BB

SFSF
L. Arraez

L. Arraez

2B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-2 · 2 R · 2.000 OPS

T. Mahle

T. Mahle

SP

Starting pitcher

5.2 IP · 6 K · 0 ER · 3 H · 4 BB

How it ended

SF beat PHI 5-0. Devers's play in the bottom 6th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (31pp).

Win probability

SF vs PHI

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
SFBottom 1st Inning · 0-0
+7pp→ 66% WP

Arraez · tripled to right.

PHIBottom 4th Inning · 0-0
+11pp→ 41% WP

Devers · grounded into double play, second to shortstop to first, Chapman out at second, Arraez to third.

SFBottom 6th Inning · 0-3
+31pp→ 92% WP

Devers · homered to center (411 feet), Adames scored and Arraez scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
PHI0000000000
SF00000302—5

Period scoring

PHI won 0 · SF won 2

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
3

Inn 6

Devers 3

0
0

Inn 7

0
2

Inn 8

Arraez 1

0

Inn 9

PHI
SF

Play-by-play · 532 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    PHI 0·SF 5

  2. T9

    Kemp struck out swinging.

    ·

    PHI 0·SF 5

  3. T9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    PHI 0·SF 5

  4. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    PHI 0·SF 5

  5. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    PHI 0·SF 5

  6. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    PHI 0·SF 5

  7. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    PHI 0·SF 5

  8. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    PHI 0·SF 5

  9. T9

    Erik Miller pitches to Otto Kemp

    ·

    PHI 0·SF 5

  10. T9

    ·

    PHI 0·SF 5

  11. T9

    Marchán flied out to center.

    ·

    PHI 0·SF 5

  12. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    PHI 0·SF 5

  13. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    PHI 0·SF 5

  14. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    PHI 0·SF 5

  15. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    PHI 0·SF 5

  16. T9

    Erik Miller pitches to Rafael Marchan

    ·

    PHI 0·SF 5

  17. T9

    ·

    PHI 0·SF 5

  18. T9

    Moore struck out swinging.

    ·

    PHI 0·SF 5

  19. T9

    Pitch 7 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    PHI 0·SF 5

  20. T9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    PHI 0·SF 5

  21. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 2

    ·

    PHI 0·SF 5

  22. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    PHI 0·SF 5

  23. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    PHI 0·SF 5

  24. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    PHI 0·SF 5

  25. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    PHI 0·SF 5

  26. T9

    Erik Miller pitches to Dylan Moore

    ·

    PHI 0·SF 5

  27. T9

    Miller relieved Tidwell

    ·

    PHI 0·SF 5

  28. T9

    Moore hit for Marsh

    ·

    PHI 0·SF 5

  29. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    PHI 0·SF 5

  30. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    PHI 0·SF 5

Team stats

PHI

Away

Stat

SF

Home

0

Runs

5

4

Hits

9

1

Errors

0

4

TB

15

0

HR

1

5

BB

1

10

K

6

14

LOB

12

Betting line

PHI -1.5·O/U 8.5·PHI -136/SF +113

DraftKings · via ESPN

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 14 players in cohort
  • Trea TurnerPHI · SS
    SPRINT29.798
  • Bryson StottPHI · 2B
    SPRINT28.688
  • Brandon MarshPHI · LF
    SPRINT28.175
  • Matt ChapmanSF · 3B
    SPRINT28.175

Player projections

SF vs PHI.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 72 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Cristopher SanchezPHI
    7.8± 3.4low
  • Jesus LuzardoPHI
    6.5± 3.6low
  • Landen RouppSF
    6.1± 2.1low

Hits

  • Jung Hoo LeeSF
    1.3± 1.1high
  • Luis ArraezSF
    1.2± 1.0high
  • Kyle SchwarberPHI
    1.1± 1.0high

Total bases

  • Kyle SchwarberPHI
    2.5± 2.8high
  • Casey SchmittSF
    2.4± 2.2high
  • Willy AdamesSF
    2.3± 2.3high

RBIs

  • Casey SchmittSF
    0.9± 1.3high
  • Kyle SchwarberPHI
    0.8± 1.5high
  • Rafael DeversSF
    0.8± 1.6high

Earned runs

  • Adrian HouserSF
    3.1± 2.9low
  • Logan WebbSF
    3.1± 2.6low
  • Andrew PainterPHI
    3.0± 3.0low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.8%

ensemble · PHI favored

  • Elo Static

    45.2%

    P(SF win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    44.8%

    P(SF win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    46.6%

    P(SF win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.77 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.